CanadianGuy Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 If only this were true lol @ accuweather Biggest snowfall of the 2015-16 "winter"Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Not sure I'm buying what there selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Not sure I'm buying what there selling. You cut off the precip outlook. All out super Nino forecast. Other indices be damned. EDIT: Clicked on it and saw the other map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 Not sure I'm buying what there selling. It's kind of a safe/climo call. One thing about precip though is that there are some strong Ninos that haven't been that dry. The risk is that you get a couple very moist systems and then the rest of winter would have to turn really dry to end up with below average precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 October JAMSTEC is out. A little worse for winter lovers compared to last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Plugging in September numbers for strong El Niño years (57,65,72,82,97) 97 closely resembled the most, 72 came in close, but not quite the warm anomalies like 97. Not sure if it has to do with the warm pool of water off the west coast otherwise known as the "blob" but as you can see warm anomalies were observed on the pac NW, while opposite anomalies were observed in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 yep, just ride strong nino climo...no need to make things more complicated than neccesary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Not sure I'm buying what there selling.All they did was paint nino climo for precip. As for temps, they know no other way at noaa. They predicted mild winters in 2013-14 & 2014-15. They will never predict a cold winter in the north, only when it's imminent for the next month will they show cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 Hasn't been a strong Nino winter that produced above average snow in Chicago anytime recently...in fact you have to go back before 1950 and it only happened a couple times. 72-73 came close but was a little below average. Now is probably as good a chance as there's been to break that streak given that recent winters have mostly been very snowy regardless of ENSO phase/strength. Though I would expect it to be more of a squeaker if it happens (like 40" or something) and not something insane like 80". Something I've found when looking back through data for Chicago is that various correlations that held up pretty well in distant years past have not really been useful in more recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 All they did was paint nino climo for precip. As for temps, they know no other way at noaa. They predicted mild winters in 2013-14 & 2014-15. They will never predict a cold winter in the north, only when it's imminent for the next month will they show cold. For last winter's official October outlook, my coworker and I and NWS mets from a few other offices around the region requested that they take out the warm anomalies that were on the September DJF outlook, but we couldn't get them to go cold despite plenty of reasons why it was going to end up cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 For last winter's official October outlook, my coworker and I and NWS mets from a few other offices around the region requested that they take out the warm anomalies that were on the September DJF outlook, but we couldn't get them to go cold despite plenty of reasons why it was going to end up cold. Interesting insight. I didn't realize that the regional offices even have any input on the seasonal outlooks. February really bailed out the winter as far as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Interesting insight. I didn't realize that the regional offices even have any input on the seasonal outlooks. February really bailed out the winter as far as cold. They hold a sanity check call with input requested from WFO's, NCAR etc before issuance of seasonal and monthly outlooks. We even took the extra step of emailing CPC last year because we felt good about below normal when it was all said and done. It was definitely an interesting way we got there with the December torch, fairly cold January and historically cold February. As far as this year goes, we haven't provided any input because it's not a bad call to go with strong Niño climo. I think the stronger signal is for overall dryness, especially out this way. For temperatures, I could see there being periods where we get -EPO/+PNA induced cold, but with our source region likely being warm, not as potent as last 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I bet this winter comes in with a negative anomaly. Not that I have anything to point to, I'm just losing faith in all of our seasonal indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I bet this winter comes in with a negative anomaly. Not that I have anything to point to, I'm just losing faith in all of our seasonal indicators. LolSent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 I bet this winter comes in with a negative anomaly. Not that I have anything to point to, I'm just losing faith in all of our seasonal indicators. in other words, Not impossible to get a colder than average winter, but playing the percentages in previous strong Nino episodes, odds are against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Lol Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I am resigned to this being representative of our coming winter. I just want to avoid an ice storm. http://www.weather.gov/iwx/elnino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I am resigned to this being representative of our coming winter. I just want to avoid an ice storm. http://www.weather.gov/iwx/elnino INDIV3MSD.png Totally agree about the ice storm issue. I do wonder with the warm September if possibly the effects of global warming are changing the symptoms that come with a strong El Niño. It's just a thought but since 2007 the harshness of winter has noticeably changed in this region. Except for one very mild season we've been pounded with of course two years ago dropping an astounding 86" which I thought not actually possible unless we were in an ice age, followed by last seasons insane cold which had February a whole 10 degrees below average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Totally agree about the ice storm issue. I do wonder with the warm September if possibly the effects of global warming are changing the symptoms that come with a strong El Niño. It's just a thought but since 2007 the harshness of winter has noticeably changed in this region. Except for one very mild season we've been pounded with of course two years ago dropping an astounding 86" which I thought not actually possible unless we were in an ice age, followed by last seasons insane cold which had February a whole 10 degrees below averageFebruary was 14 degrees below normal at Detroit. That is a greater anomaly than March 2012. In my most weenie dreams I wouldn't have imagined a snow winter like 2013-14 o a cold month like February 2015 ever happening.I too have been questioning our winters and why they are changing for the better. What is average anymore lol? One thing to remember about strong nino climo....it is a very small sample size, which is scary to begin with. The most overwhelming signal is for a cold Fall, but this gets overlooked because let's face it we all worry about winter more . Yet fall 2015 will be above normal, thanks to September. The winter signal is not as strong. Using all 11 strong ninos on record (since 1877), & while it does average warmer than normal in our area, it's not overwhelming. Take out 82-83 & 97-98 and average the other 9 years and you get near average temps. Why? There have been several cold strong ninos. The far upper midwest warm signal is the strongest, but they are far enough north where that can actually be beneficial for snow lovers. Oh and btw, sensible weather in 82-83 & 97-98 were nowhere near similar to each other either. This winter is an unknown. May be good, may be bad, but it's an unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Not sure I'm buying what there selling. It's nino climatology and it's a strong nino. What's not to buy? All they did was paint nino climo for precip. As for temps, they know no other way at noaa. They predicted mild winters in 2013-14 & 2014-15. They will never predict a cold winter in the north, only when it's imminent for the next month will they show cold. I mean, there's not a whole lot to argue against the typical Nino pattern at this point? I bet this winter comes in with a negative anomaly. Not that I have anything to point to, I'm just losing faith in all of our seasonal indicators. Nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 February was 14 degrees below normal at Detroit. That is a greater anomaly than March 2012. In my most weenie dreams I wouldn't have imagined a snow winter like 2013-14 o a cold month like February 2015 ever happening. I too have been questioning our winters and why they are changing for the better. What is average anymore lol? One thing to remember about strong nino climo....it is a very small sample size, which is scary to begin with. The most overwhelming signal is for a cold Fall, but this gets overlooked because let's face it we all worry about winter more . Yet fall 2015 will be above normal, thanks to September. The winter signal is not as strong. Using all 11 strong ninos on record (since 1877), & while it does average warmer than normal in our area, it's not overwhelming. Take out 82-83 & 97-98 and average the other 9 years and you get near average temps. Why? There have been several cold strong ninos. The far upper midwest warm signal is the strongest, but they are far enough north where that can actually be beneficial for snow lovers. Oh and btw, sensible weather in 82-83 & 97-98 were nowhere near similar to each other either. This winter is an unknown. May be good, may be bad, but it's an unknown. AGW has had a greater effect on ocean temps, land temps have been only slightly warmer today than 1980. We are developing a cold continent, warm ocean regime, most particularly in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Look how good last years forecast panned out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 AGW has had a greater effect on ocean temps, land temps have been only slightly warmer today than 1980. We are developing a cold continent, warm ocean regime, most particularly in the winter. The epac sub tropical regions are off the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Look how good last years forecast panned out... Having been on a few of the sanity check calls I described in a previous post, IMHO CPC lacks credibility in the long range forecasting community for a few reasons: 1) they do a probability scheme instead of a forecast 2) they are far too reliant on ENSO composites for temperatures - last winter and another example 09-10 were terrible winters to use the strong Niño composites given what was already known by mid October 3) they are far too reliant on the NMME output of 2m temperature anomalies for the temperature anomaly probs - the LR models do a generally poor job with raw 2m temp anomalies and it's better to look at the forecast mid/upper level height anomalies to get a better idea. This year I think has a chance to work out better because of the strength of the El Niño, but there have been lots of good ideas shared on other subforums about how some things could come out different, especially farther east. I don't think CPC accounts enough for things like SAI, solar activity, blocking tendency etc. in their outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Having been on a few of the sanity check calls I described in a previous post, IMHO CPC lacks credibility in the long range forecasting community for a few reasons: 1) they do a probability scheme instead of a forecast 2) they are far too reliant on ENSO composites for temperatures - last winter and another example 09-10 were terrible winters to use the strong Niño composites given what was already known by mid October 3) they are far too reliant on the NMME output of 2m temperature anomalies for the temperature anomaly probs - the LR models do a generally poor job with raw 2m temp anomalies and it's better to look at the forecast mid/upper level height anomalies to get a better idea. This year I think has a chance to work out better because of the strength of the El Niño, but there have been lots of good ideas shared on other subforums about how some things could come out different, especially farther east. I don't think CPC accounts enough for things like SAI, solar activity, blocking tendency etc. in their outlooks. Great insight! Makes sense. The biases certainly come through (those who want mild, those who want cold), but overall there is a lot of discussion on these forums about how there are so many differences between this year and other strong Ninos years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 It's nino climatology and it's a strong nino. What's not to buy? I mean, there's not a whole lot to argue against the typical Nino pattern at this point? Im not arguing against anything. I have no idea if it will be a warm or cold, snowy or low snow winter. Just stating the facts. The phrase "nino climo" has been thrown around a lot. I think we should start calling it "82-83 climo" There have been 11 strong Ninos on record. Locally, of those 11 strong Ninos: 4 were warmer than normal, 4 were colder than normal, 3 had near normal temps 7 were less snowy than normal, 4 were snowier than normal 7 were drier than normal, 4 were wetter than normal (*not the same 7/4 split for snow and precip) Its like in the playoffs...the team with the better record is favored to win the series, but unless a 100 win team is playing a 50 win team (ie overwhelming odds), look how many times that doesnt work out. Nino climo itself is very split. By strength alone, clearly this el nino is strong. But if we do include all el ninos (of which there have been 35 since 1877), 14 winters were colder than normal, 13 were warmer than normal, 8 were near normal....18 were snowier than normal, 17 were less snowy than normal. This clearly shows that nino is one piece of a puzzle. My gut for the winter? 50/50. Honestly have no gut feeling one way or the other. Strong Nino climo tips it onto the milder/less snowy side, trends of recent winters tip it to the colder/snowier side (esp snowy). So its a wash in my book. For those who actually do forecasting on these forums and are very passionate one way or another, well all you need to see is their user name to know this post is going to show something favoring a warm winter or something favoring a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 All out super Nino forecast. Other indices be damned. Outlook_map_Precip_2015_2F_2000.jpg Having been on a few of the sanity check calls I described in a previous post, IMHO CPC lacks credibility in the long range forecasting community for a few reasons: 1) they do a probability scheme instead of a forecast 2) they are far too reliant on ENSO composites for temperatures - last winter and another example 09-10 were terrible winters to use the strong Niño composites given what was already known by mid October 3) they are far too reliant on the NMME output of 2m temperature anomalies for the temperature anomaly probs - the LR models do a generally poor job with raw 2m temp anomalies and it's better to look at the forecast mid/upper level height anomalies to get a better idea. This year I think has a chance to work out better because of the strength of the El Niño, but there have been lots of good ideas shared on other subforums about how some things could come out different, especially farther east. I don't think CPC accounts enough for things like SAI, solar activity, blocking tendency etc. in their outlooks. I agreed in an earlier post, but you laid out good points and reasoning behind your thoughts. EDIT: Maybe I should occasionally peruse the other subfoums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2015 Author Share Posted October 17, 2015 Having been on a few of the sanity check calls I described in a previous post, IMHO CPC lacks credibility in the long range forecasting community for a few reasons: 1) they do a probability scheme instead of a forecast 2) they are far too reliant on ENSO composites for temperatures - last winter and another example 09-10 were terrible winters to use the strong Niño composites given what was already known by mid October 3) they are far too reliant on the NMME output of 2m temperature anomalies for the temperature anomaly probs - the LR models do a generally poor job with raw 2m temp anomalies and it's better to look at the forecast mid/upper level height anomalies to get a better idea. This year I think has a chance to work out better because of the strength of the El Niño, but there have been lots of good ideas shared on other subforums about how some things could come out different, especially farther east. I don't think CPC accounts enough for things like SAI, solar activity, blocking tendency etc. in their outlooks. I wish they would shift away from the probability scheme. Or, keep it but also put out a deterministic forecast. Unless they go with a 100% chance of something (which never happens), it can't really be graded. I mean, I guess you can infer what they are thinking in general at your own risk (warm, very warm, cold, very cold, etc) based on the levels of probabilities that are given but it would be nice to have some actual numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 ALL strong El Ninos since 1895: ALL moderate El Ninos since 1895 ALL weak El Ninos since 1895 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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