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Winter 2015-16 Discussion


Hoosier

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We had Jon Davis from Earth Risk speak at our Chicago-CoD joint AMS meeting last night. Some good stuff.

 

He thinks the pattern flips to cold here next month and also think the warm pool of SST's we've seen in the NPAC the last few winters will hold into and through the winter ( mentioned even with the hit they've taken the last 1-2 weeks....thinks they warm again)

 

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Plugging in the 5 strongest El nino's on record (1957,1965, 1972, 1982, 1997) paints a completely different picture than that of what we are currently experiencing or should be expecting! We are totally going against climo right now. This plot yields wall to wall colder than normal anomalies. I'm really intrigued to see what unfolds this winter. Going to be fun to use for data later down the road!

post-5916-0-63783200-1444677723_thumb.pn

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Plugging in the 5 strongest El nino's on record (1957,1965, 1972, 1982, 1997) paints a completely different picture than that of what we are currently experiencing or should be expecting! We are totally going against climo right now. This plot yields wall to wall colder than normal anomalies. I'm really intrigued to see what unfolds this winter. Going to be fun to use for data later down the road!

 

 

Indeed.  Can interpret this in multiple ways.  :devilsmiley:

 

As I mentioned in the banter thread, I've been working on some Chicago-centric stuff and 1965 is the only strong El Nino year in "modern" times to feature warmer than average September/October temps in Chicago (November went on to be warmer than average as well).  1877 also had a warmer than average September and October.  The other strong Nino years had at least 1 below average month out of September and October.   It will be interesting to see where this October finishes.

 

I think this winter is not going to be as easy as taking a blend of 82-83 and 97-98 and calling it a day...

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Indeed.  Can interpret this in multiple ways.  :devilsmiley:

 

As I mentioned in the banter thread, I've been working on some Chicago-centric stuff and 1965 is the only strong El Nino year in "modern" times to feature warmer than average September/October temps in Chicago (November went on to be warmer than average as well).  1877 also had a warmer than average September and October.  The other strong Nino years had at least 1 below average month out of September and October.   It will be interesting to see where this October finishes.

 

I think this winter is not going to be as easy as taking a blend of 82-83 and 97-98 and calling it a day...

 

'65-66 was awful for accumulated snowfall for this sub-forum.  Below average for nearly everywhere. Looked like it was an active southern storm track as areas from southern OK down into central Texas and points east of there across much of Arkansas up to the KY/TN border recorded way above normal snowfall. 

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'65-66 was awful for accumulated snowfall for this sub-forum.  Below average for nearly everywhere. Looked like it was an active southern storm track as areas from southern OK down into central Texas and points east of there across much of Arkansas up to the KY/TN border recorded way above normal snowfall. 

 

 

Not real warm though

 

 

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Not real warm though

 

 

attachicon.gif6566.png

1965-66 saw a warm Dec & a frigid Jan-Feb. Snowfall was absolutely pitiful, in fact it was the 4th least snowy winter on record at Detroit (15.4"), yet some snow covered the ground most of Jan-Feb. It was a dry, tundra like atmosphere after December, and I dont imagine a repeat would please many (other than ice enthusiasts).

 

I dont know what people are expecting, but no two El Ninos are alike. 1972-73 was actually pretty stormy & roller-coastery.

 

1877-78 was warm but snowfall (and rainfall) was plentiful.

 

1982-83 was "backloaded" and 1997-98 was "front loaded" in terms of the most wintry part of those mild winters.

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1965-66 saw a warm Dec & a frigid Jan-Feb. Snowfall was absolutely pitiful, in fact it was the 4th least snowy winter on record at Detroit (15.4"), yet some snow covered the ground most of Jan-Feb. It was a dry, tundra like atmosphere after December, and I dont imagine a repeat would please many (other than ice enthusiasts).

 

I dont know what people are expecting, but no two El Ninos are alike. 1972-73 was actually pretty stormy & roller-coastery.

 

1877-78 was warm but snowfall (and rainfall) was plentiful.

 

1982-83 was "backloaded" and 1997-98 was "front loaded" in terms of the most wintry part of those mild winters.

 

 

Yeah, Dec 1965 was very warm, especially in the western Midwest.  It's kinda impressive how January and February were able to wipe out a lot of the warm anomalies.

 

Christmas 1965 featured a nice grinch storm for much of the area...

 

 

post-14-0-61455600-1444694212_thumb.png

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Yeah, Dec 1965 was very warm, especially in the western Midwest. It's kinda impressive how January and February were able to wipe out a lot of the warm anomalies.

Christmas 1965 featured a nice grinch storm for much of the area...

dec1965.png

I have actually read about that storm before.

That storm ended up dropping torrential rain (2-4") on christmas Eve, which flooded thousands of basements in SE MI (Merry Christmas!). DTW had 3.46" of rain from 2pm Christmas Eve to 4am Christmas Day. The rain turned to snow Christmas morning and though only 0.5-2" fell it caused blizzard conditions as winds howled Storm total was 3.75" precip, 1.1" snow. From start to finish definitely a disruptive holiday storm. It was the only meaningful snow of the month (save for a few tenths). It then torched around new years before winter roared in the 2nd week of January.

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82-83 style with the big dawg hitting I-75 would be real real nice. Plus you will be in short sleeves during Christmas.

82-83 is my last choice of strong nino winters locally. Horrific winter then a bit of a spring snow blitz with a very very late spring.

Of course it doesn't matter...no two winters are ever alike, so a replica of any winter isnt happening.

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I did a brief write-up on one of my top 3 favorite all time snowstorms here in Buffalo. Thought you guys would enjoy as we get ready for our first flakes soon.

 

Today and yesterday mark the anniversary of the Oct 12-13th 2006 Lake Effect Storm Aphid. One of my favorites of all time living in Cheektowaga/Amherst border. I remember it like yesterday as me and my family went for a walk on the 12th that night. Flashes of lightning and thunder with powerflashes nearly every minute. It felt like an apocalyptic walk that evening. We lost power for 13 days in total. Luckily my parents had a generator in which we hot wired directly to the circuit breaker. We also had a fire place where we all slept together next to for those 2 weeks. Buffalo in total lost I believe 70% of its trees. The snow was so heavy as QPF ratios were 1:6 to 1:12 during the event. The trees were still in full bloom which is the reason there was such a great loss of power. BUF NWS has a nice write-up.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/storm101206.html

 

In the end, upwards of 400,000 customers were without power, some for as much as two weeks after the storm.

 

Damage estimates from late December 2006 were in the $150,000,000 to $200,000,000 range.

 

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Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 24" (Depew, Alden) 

Duration: 16 hours +/- 

Prime Feature: Dramatic crippling out of season event. Unprecedented meteorological parameters.

Words cannot do justice to the astounding event which opened the 2006-07 season. It was the most unique in  regards to destruction of trees and power outages, directly because of its out of season factor. Almost a million residents of the Niagara Frontier lost power, some for as long as a week, and tree damage was the worst in memory, especially to the lush vegetation in the many historic parkways and parks in the Buffalo area.

The extreme parameters of the event were noted all week and even mentioned six days ahead in forecast discussions. The depth of cold air was almost unprecedented for so early in the season and Lake Erie was a mild 62 degrees, three degrees above normal for October 12. Instability levels were dramatic with 850 mb to surface delta t's of 24C or so, inversion levels were simply off the chart at 25k feet with omega and Cape values unprecedented for a lake effect event. The only question, and a big one, was whether the boundary layer could be cold enough to maintain snow with a flow off a 62 degree lake. It was initially assumed that there would just enough moderation for the bulk of this forecasted intense lake effect storm to fall as rain, with perhaps some graupel or wet snow inland, but by Thursday morning (12th) it was becoming marginal, and a Warning was issued early Thursday afternoon for 1-6" of wet snow, specifically because of the fact that most trees were still in full leaf, and the threat of serious damage and associated power outages.

The event began with lake effect rain during Thursday morning and midday, and enough cold air became entrained to change over the precipitation to wet snow in the Buffalo area by 3 pm. Still, little accumulation resulted for a few hours, but by 8-9 pm, reports of trees falling and power outages suddenly increased rapidly after 2-3" of snow, which was very wet and weighed down the trees. Conditions only worsened overnight with near constant thunder and lightning for a good 12 hours. Cloud tops reached an incredible 25-30 thousand feet, about double we have previously observed in the worst events, this was directly attributed to the phenomenal uplift over the 62 degree lake.

The heaviest snowband set up across the North Towns Thursday evening, then drifted south to the Southtowns around midnight, then lifted slightly to the city and eastern suburbs in the wee hours before lifting north across the Northtowns again around daybreak and eventually to Niagara county Friday (13th) morning where it weakened and faded to rain as the dynamic cooling process faded and allowed the boundary layer to moderate.

It was apparent that the associated uplift and dynamic cooling was so strong that it overcame any attempt of boundary layer warming from the lake. There even may have been cooling near its edge because of this dynamic cooling as evident by lowering dew points at Cleveland, Erie and Dunkirk early in the event, perhaps a sign of air advecting into the lakeband from the land.

Even though plenty of damage resulted already in the first few inches, total snowfall in this event was simply unbelievable. 5 to 8 inches fell in the first phase of the event between 3 pm and midnight, but the snow water equivalent (swe) ratio was around 6:1 or so, hence the terrific damage to trees and powerlines. The second phase featured slightly drier snow, maybe 12:1 but it piled up another foot in heaviest area, in just 4 hours or so. The 22.6 inches recorded at the Buffalo airport not only blew away any October record (6" in 1909, only 4 falls of 2" or more in 100 years in October),  but was the 7th greatest snowfall ever at any time in Buffalo!

The crippling snows extended well across Genesee and Orleans counties, and pushed into extreme southern Niagara county, but there was a sharp cutoff to any damage, which ran along a line from Whitehaven Road on Grand Island to Wheatfield to Medina on the north, Leroy and Bergen on the east, and East Aurora and southern Hamburg on the south.

 

A Few Pictures:

 

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buffalonewyorkoctobersnowstorm1aaaaa.jpg

 

 

 

buffalonewyorkpoolsnowstormoct13.jpg

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First flakes in the forecast here.

 

Saturday
A chance of rain showers before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 10am and 11am, then a chance of rain showers after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
Saturday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
Sunday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
Average first snowfall:
 
WlvchSe.png
 
ETXR2F7.jpg
 
 
 
Bos first snowfall: August 30th :thumbsup: 
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First flakes in the forecast here.

 

Saturday

A chance of rain showers before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 10am and 11am, then a chance of rain showers after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

Saturday Night

A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Sunday

A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

 

 

 

Bos first snowfall: August 30th :thumbsup: 

Haha! Typically, there is a trace of snow the last week of Sept/first of Oct here in the N part of the Huron's. Marquette the city is Oct 18th, but the MQT office on average, should have seen a trace already.

snow in the 'cast here too. I would not be too surprised to see an inch or so on grassy surfaces later this week.

Great recap of the storm, Josh!

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Plugging in the 5 strongest El nino's on record (1957,1965, 1972, 1982, 1997) paints a completely different picture than that of what we are currently experiencing or should be expecting! We are totally going against climo right now. This plot yields wall to wall colder than normal anomalies. I'm really intrigued to see what unfolds this winter. Going to be fun to use for data later down the road!

Question, I posted this map in another forum and and another member thinks the map is skewed some due to the 60s and 70s being cooler than the 1981-2010 time frame so the map is going to look a bit below normal because of 3 dates outside of the dates taken from the average as well as some of the years having very cold Novembers. (this guy is really good with enso and long range predicting) What do you think?

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Question, I posted this map in another forum and and another member thinks the map is skewed some due to the 60s and 70s being cooler than the 1981-2010 time frame so the map is going to look a bit below normal because of 3 dates outside of the dates taken from the average as well as some of the years having very cold Novembers. (this guy is really good with enso and long range predicting) What do you think?

 

 

Which averaging period is used does affect things some, but you get a similar flavor using the much longer period of 1895-2000

 

 

post-14-0-97455800-1444749280_thumb.png

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Haha! Typically, there is a trace of snow the last week of Sept/first of Oct here in the N part of the Huron's. Marquette the city is Oct 18th, but the MQT office on average, should have seen a trace already.

snow in the 'cast here too. I would not be too surprised to see an inch or so on grassy surfaces later this week.

Great recap of the storm, Josh!

 

Haha! I figured it would be around late September, just couldn't find anything official online aside from Marquette. Also, the name is Rich! ^_^

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Haha! Typically, there is a trace of snow the last week of Sept/first of Oct here in the N part of the Huron's. Marquette the city is Oct 18th, but the MQT office on average, should have seen a trace already.

snow in the 'cast here too. I would not be too surprised to see an inch or so on grassy surfaces later this week.

Great recap of the storm, Josh!

Man, hard to believe we are already looking at our first flakes of the season,  although its about right based on long term climo. Going to be a dreary cold, windy, rainy few days. 

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Man, hard to believe we are already looking at our first flakes of the season, although its about right based on long term climo. Going to be a dreary cold, windy, rainy few days.

Yep. Now that most of the leaves came down, winter is just around the corner. Gaylord snow climo isn't much different than Marquette as far as first occurrence. Gaylord's elevation really makes all the difference.
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Yep. Now that most of the leaves came down, winter is just around the corner. Gaylord snow climo isn't much different than Marquette as far as first occurrence. Gaylord's elevation really makes all the difference.

True, Gaylord area usually has the first snowfall and one of the last to lose its snowcover. Its amazing what an extra few 100 feet in elevation does :) 

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First flakes in the forecast here.

 

Saturday
A chance of rain showers before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 10am and 11am, then a chance of rain showers after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
Saturday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
Sunday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
Average first snowfall:
 
WlvchSe.png
 
ETXR2F7.jpg
 
 
 
Bos first snowfall: August 30th :thumbsup: 

 

Nice stats. Only note...it would be first 0.1" snow, not .01" :P

 

For Detroit...

Avg first flakes: Oct 30th

Avg first 0.1"+: Nov 17th

Avg first 1.0"+: Nov 30th

 

Earliest first flakes: Oct 1, 1974

Latest first flakes: Dec 16, 1998

 

Earliest first 0.1"+: Oct 12, 2006

Latest first 0.1"+: Dec 29, 1998

 

Earliest first 1.0"+: Oct 19, 1930 & Oct 19, 1989

Latest first 1.0"+: Jan 23, 1890

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Nice stats. Only note...it would be first 0.1" snow, not .01" :P

 

For Detroit...

Avg first flakes: Oct 30th

Avg first 0.1"+: Nov 17th

Avg first 1.0"+: Nov 30th

 

Earliest first flakes: Oct 1, 1974

Latest first flakes: Dec 16, 1998

 

Earliest first 0.1"+: Oct 12, 2006

Latest first 0.1"+: Dec 29, 1998

 

Earliest first 1.0"+: Oct 19, 1930 & Oct 19, 1989

Latest first 1.0"+: Jan 23, 1890

 

Thanks for the stats, was having trouble finding it for the major cities. I figured you had it all saved somewhere. ^_^

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Ryan Maue tweet.  Enjoy

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/654380304610820096/photo/1

 

 

Edit:  on second look, don't pay any attention to that map whatsoever if you're in a lake effect belt.  Not going to be able to resolve such small scales.

Excluding lake effect snow, that looks like it would be slightly below average, at least for much of Michigan. Most of the southern half of the LP gets between 35 and 50 inches of synoptic snow.

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Ryan Maue tweet.  Enjoy

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/654380304610820096/photo/1

 

 

Edit:  on second look, don't pay any attention to that map whatsoever if you're in a lake effect belt.  Not going to be able to resolve such small scales.

That map isn't bad news for Central Ohio posters. It shows my area getting @ 40" or so, the average is 30".

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If only this were true lol @ accuweather

 

9iz1py.jpg

 

Great... just another pre-Dec 1st snowstorm to lure me up north before the trails open. The locals wanted to ring my neck last year when I went early. Should I start booking hotels or wait for the models to come into consensus?

 

The 1080hr GFS is ultra reliable.

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