Hoosier Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Blame TSnow for bringing it up Anyway, we're a long way from winter but the itch will start soon enough for some. A lot of things go into dictating what happens but the factor that will probably get the most attention is the currently strengthening El Nino. Various models are indicating a very strong El Nino peaking sometime later this year. How strong it gets is obviously up for grabs but a strong peak via the ONI seems quite likely, with some chance at a "super" event. Here are some CFS and JAMSTEC progs for region 3.4 just to show some of the possibilities Early CFS and JAMSTEC temperature progs for DJF Personally, I'm down for a mild winter after the recent ones. Although a strong Nino would tilt the odds in favor of that outcome, it's by no means a lock. Curious to see how strong this event gets and what other indices are looking like as we get deeper into Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Put me down for a super nino, going to be a crazy winter for the south. Up this way above normal temps and below normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2015 Author Share Posted June 29, 2015 Put me down for a super nino, going to be a crazy winter for the south. Up this way above normal temps and below normal snowfall. It'll be an interesting "battle" between the recent winter tendencies of below average temps/snowier than average for a lot of folks in the region and the forcing from what could be a mega Nino. The recent winters haven't had to deal with anything like this in the tropical Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 It'll be an interesting "battle" between the recent winter tendencies of below average temps/snowier than average for a lot of folks in the region and the forcing from what could be a mega Nino. The recent winters haven't had to deal with anything like this in the tropical Pacific. Yeah, of the two I feel least confident about is the below normal snowfall, one or two mistakes in the right direction and you could be near normal right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Yeah, of the two I feel least confident about is the below normal snowfall, one or two mistakes in the right direction and you could be near normal right there. The strong El Nino of '97-'98, MQT received 184", so this area more than likely cracked 200". Not too worried about the Winter, a mildish one would actually be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Several years ago, I made a list of the El Nino winters and their stats for Detroit. Rather than put all the stats, Ill put a brief synopsis to make it easier to read lol. I wont include weak Ninos since this episode does not look to peak at weak, though as has been mentioned before, weak Ninos tend towards cold, snowy winters for this region. Generally, moderate-strong El Ninos tend to paint a colder, snowier picture pre-1950 and post-2000 than some of the more infamous mild, snowless Ninos of the 1950s-1990s. Still there were exceptions to every rule. The winters varied wildly in all aspects (temps, precip, snow), further proof that ENSO is just one factor that goes into determining winter weather. Of additional interest is the fact that this Nino, regardless of how strong, looks to peak earlier than most Ninos. To me, the fact that we are due for some tame winters is far scarier than any Nino. But the increase in snowier, colder winters (especially snowier) that we have been seeing for about 15 years now is hard to ignore. STRONG EL NINO WINTERS at Detroit, MI 1877-78...a mild winter, esp December, but included a huge snowstorm at Detroit on Jan 31st-Feb 1st of 15.7". Season total snowfall N/A due to some missing data 1888-89...avg temps overall, but this was a product of mild Dec-Jan and frigid Feb. Snowfall well below normal at 23.2", biggest storm only 3.0" 1896-97...very avg winter. avg temps, total snowfall 43.8", biggest storm 9.0". 1899-00...slightly colder than avg. record cold mar. very backloaded winter snow-wise. light snow dec-jan, then record string of snowstorms. largest storm 16.1" but also a 14" & 10" storm. Record snow depth 26" on Mar 5th. Season snow 69.1". 1902-03...slightly colder than avg winter, snowfall above avg at 51.3", largest snowstorm 7.4" 1940-41...temps near avg overall...snowfall below normal at 26.8", the largest storm being just 3.8", and in Nov no less. Snowy Nov, very light snow rest of winter. 1957-58...temps slightly above avg, but a cold Feb. Very dry w/ snowfall well below normal at 18.0", biggest storm only 2.1", the lowest "biggest storm" of any winter. 1972-73...temps slightly above avg, but total snowfall of 45.0" included a storm of 9.9" in March. 1982-83...very mild, open winter, only 20.0" of snow total with over half the seasons snow coming in Spring. Biggest storm 7.3" in late Mar. 1991-92...mild winter, but with 43.5" of snow including a storm of 11.1" in Jan. 1997-98...very mild winter, season snow 23.5" with biggest storm being 4.5". 2009-10...temps near avg, snowfall of 43.7" with the biggest storm being 8.6" MODERATE EL NINO WINTERS at Detroit, MI 1911-12...despite a mild Dec, a bitterly cold winter (nov & mar very cold too). Snowfall well above normal at 58.0", biggest storm 8.6", peak snow depth 13". 1914-15...slightly colder than normal winter, snowfall below normal at 37.6" & biggest storm 5.3", but a very snowcovered winter. 1918-19...very mild, snowless winter. Just 15.2" fell total, biggest being a sloppy 5.8" storm in Mar. Only 12 days all winter had measurable snowcover. 1925-26...slightly colder than avg winter, very heavy snowfall. Total snow 78.0". Biggest storm "only" 8.9", but plenty of snowstorms. 1930-31...a mild winter however snowfall was slightly above normal at 47.8", and there was a big 11.1" storm in Mar. 1941-42...milder than normal winter, light snowfall of 23.4" with the biggest storm of 4.2" coming in Apr. 1965-66...slightly milder than normal, mainly due to Dec, with very light snow only 15.4", biggest storm being 3.0". Most of Jan was cold/snowcovered however. 1968-69...temps slightly colder than normal, but awful in the snow department. Total snow only 17.1", biggest storm 3.3". 1986-87...a milder than normal winter but with 49.7" of snow, biggest storm 8.1". 1987-88...an avg winter temp-wise, with 45.1" of snow and the biggest storm being 8.2". 1994-95...mild winter with 33.5" of snow, biggest storm being 7.6". 2002-03...very cold winter with 60.9" of snow and several snowstorms, biggest being 7.3" 2006-07...mild winter overall but frigid Feb. Total snow 30.3", the biggest storm being 8.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 June 29th Hoosier! Come on now! Let me enjoy my few months of summer. (less this year) At least wait until September 1st. Count me on board for above normal temperatures with average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 June 29th Hoosier! Come on now! Let me enjoy my few months of summer. (less this year) At least wait until September 1st. Count me on board for above normal temperatures with average snowfall. New England started their Winter 2015-16 thread on April 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 New England started their Winter 2015-16 thread on April 20th A bunch of weenies! That Damage in Tolland guy and Powderfreak. Crazy guys I tell ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 Pretty sure that Tim put together a comprehensive list of temperatures/snowfall for a bunch of sites based on Nino strength. Perhaps we can bring that into this thread at some point if it looks like we're going to have a strong Nino persisting into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Cold and wet is the easy call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I'm gradually becoming less and less interested in seasonal forecasts. You might as well toss a dwarf on a giant velcro bullseye with different call on each landing point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The strong El Nino of '97-'98, MQT received 184", so this area more than likely cracked 200". Not too worried about the Winter, a mildish one would actually be appreciated. Down here, that's fine... But you don't get a break up there. I need that place loaded with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Cold and wet is the easy call Cold. Northwest flow. One, maybe two bullseye events of varied magnitude. Nickel and dime your way to near average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Won't get too into this thread until probably later into August and September and after derecho season. Haven't been following much from JB on WxBell so who knows what he is calling for right now. Last I read was he was thinking another brutal winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Could the 15-16 winter season be the winter of the elusive triple phaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 Wondering about the EPO. I have no idea how a possible strong Nino influences the EPO/makes it more or less likely to be negative (or neither). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Don't think I have had much of a summer yet (as most of the region) but already talking winter . I would be happy with a warmer winter, certainly are due even if that comes at the expense of some snow. The few El-ninos I have experienced up here generally do not help the LES situation that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 The combination of the "blob" off the west coast and a strong El Nino will likely bottle up the cold air this winter. I figure the cold pool is going to shift out over the Atlantic this winter with a cancellation of winter for the West Coast (again) and Great Plains. Here, likely warmer, dry and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 i'll probably see another 20" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 i'll probably see another 20" event Jealous... still only had one 12"+ event here in the past 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 i'll probably see another 20" event long duration again would be nice. I'm all for a new avi for Hoosier now, but that dual LAF sup image better be back if you plan to start any winter storm threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Could the 15-16 winter season be the winter of the elusive triple phaser? Would certainly be something to see. The Super Bowl Blizzard was satisfying enough 12-18" across NW Ohio with 14" in BG was awesome Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Very strong/super Nino (>2.0) signals usually overwhelm all other signals (except perhaps briefly). If this one is cranking >=2.0 by the time October gets here, I have a hard time seeing how we get anything other than a warm, low-snow winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Very strong/super Nino (>2.0) signals usually overwhelm all other signals (except perhaps briefly). If this one is cranking >=2.0 by the time October gets here, I have a hard time seeing how we get anything other than a warm, low-snow winter. Except what if the Nino is central based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Im wondering what (if any) effect an early peak will mean? We can speculate about anything and everything, but hopefully in the fall some more clear signals will emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Except what if the Nino is central based? That's a pretty big "IF" at this point. Most of the atmospheric forcing so far has been solidly characteristic of an east-based event. That doesn't mean it can't change, but it hasn't followed previous Modokis thusfar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 That's a pretty big "IF" at this point. Most of the atmospheric forcing so far has been solidly characteristic of an east-based event. That doesn't mean it can't change, but it hasn't followed previous Modokis thusfar. Nino 4 has been struggling to warm up. With every week, CFSv2 has been putting off the warming trend there for 2 months now. It's also suggested that the Nino 1+2 is about to plateau, has plateau'd, or is about to slightly cool for just as long... hasn't happened yet. CFSv2 Nino 1+2 forecast made on May 3: http://i.imgur.com/LYYhKtg.gif CFSv2 Nino 4 forecast made on May 3: http://i.imgur.com/8HChN7G.gif That's not to say the respective warming and cooling isn't gonna happen. I don't know enough about ENSO to say that... just observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 I will go with above average for December and January, colder in Feb, with at least one major event some time after mid January..... Average snow fall. All based on conjecture. Use at your own risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Except what if the Nino is central based? Won't happen. People keep hanging on to 2009-2010. Too much credit was given to el Nino and not enough to the 100-year solar minimum that was largely responsible for the ridiculously -AO. Bigger question that I have is the impact on the AAM. It has been quite low in spite of how strong el Nino has been. It's come up lately, probably due to the MJO. IMO, that still leaves some question as to how it will interact with the mid-latitudes. Even if it does end up as strong as 97-98, there might be fundamental differences that one might not expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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