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July Pattern and Disco- Shut Up and Dew With Me


Damage In Tolland

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Must be a layer of dry off the deck eating this thing because ..yea, ground truths are making a liar out of rad coverage much of this day. 

 

Back edge of this thing is outpacing the front edge over the last hour, too, and has already ended in western zones. Just pitter pattering with dry roads here in Ayer.  May only get an 1:15 interruption at this rate.  

 

Kind of like everyone wins forecast.  

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Heh, I'm bowing out on that one Scott - can't honestly take credit cause I got fooking lucky ;)

 

I didn't even think that rain shield would be over western zones, either... The happenstance of it falling apart as it moved E; you have to give some credit to the GFS on that to be fair I think.  Even though it was flat wrong on QPF amounts and areal coverage, the Euro had 0 on at least one recent run.

 

More than anything ...this stupid little dopey petty pointless perturbation was not handled well by any model, period.  

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Heh, I'm bowing out on that one Scott - can honestly take credit cause I got fooking lucky ;)

I didn't even think that rain shield would be over western zones, either... The happenstance of it falling apart as it moved E; you have to give some credit to the GFS on that to be fair I think. Even though it was flat wrong on QPF amounts and areal coverage, the Euro had 0 on at least one recent run.

More than anything ...this stupid little dopey petty pointless perturbation was not handled well by any model, period.

It was really wet into the Boston burbs though. Then it went dry while some mesos were wet. Whole thing was always overdone anyways as we talked about yesterday.

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It was really wet into the Boston burbs though. Then it went dry while some mesos were wet. Whole thing was always overdone anyways as we talked about yesterday.

It seems to really struggle in the low levels sometimes when battling dry air. I think there were a couple GFS runs that gave me ~1".

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In any event ... most MOS products are in line with synoptic appeal, and deep summer appeal for tomorrow. In fact, Monday too ... 

 

Haven't heard much commented on this but AN week appears on tap - no mention as to magnitude.  NAM has 91 at KFIT for Monday... 88/58 type very warm Sunday in high summer sun.  

 

May dent things back with some sort of frontalysis arrival mid-week, then we'll see if some sort of flat ridging/lift in the westerlies is for real for next weekend.  I don't trust it though... Been too persistent with base-line of blocking over EPO or eastern Canada spanning two years.  This warm 3 or 5 days in coming could be interim before reload just the same.  we'll see...

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Yeah...hopefully the soil temp finally gets above 70F consistently so my garden can grow.

 

Dude, you just nailed it!  I put my toms and cukes in over a month ago, and though they don't look terrible in terms of leaf health and color ... they have grown ...maybe a 1/4 " - really.  Not much hyperbole there; they just are utterly stunted.  In fact, the toms have started putting our fruit, which also are like micro sized.  The beef-steakers are like marbles...  

 

f'g pissed!   

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Paul captures my own sentiments about the late middle, extended ranges rather nicely ...

 

"...THE BIGGER CONCERN IS LATER IN THE FORECAST WHEN THERE IS STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY. ANY AMPLIFICATION OF A RIDGE WHETHER OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OR THE SMALLER CHANCE IT OCCURS FARTHER EAST WOULD CERTAINLY INFLUENCE WHERE ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT COULD DEVELOP. GIVEN THE TREND FOR THE MEAN RIDGE TO BUILD RECENTLY OVER THE WEST WOULD MEAN THAT ANY ADDITIONAL RIDGING COULD SEE THE EXTREME HEAT RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST...ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON THAT BANDWAGON."

 

The 00z GGEM out-right releases Sonoran/plateau cooked air and swashes it synoptically up through the GL/OV and even NE, Ds 6-10. Gotta figure that's typical ridge and or trough amplitude bias that it, and the operational Euro, typically party in beyond their respective D5/6 time ranges.  Having said that, the Euro op. was indeed flatter, but it is also suspiciously lowering heights in the E premature to any larger circulation medium impetus to do so ...and that then conveniently parlays into a deeper extended trough than is likely to occur in reality.  The 12z GGEM is fascinating ...even though the above tendencies to dream large may loom in this run, too ... it is still a modeled spectacle in having a giant continental ridge ballooning to some 600 DM of height depth over 95 W/35 N!  

 

Yet the GFS operational appears to part company with it's own ensemble mean in having ridge nodes pop-off and or persist in the op. over the EPOs NW Terr./Alaska domain space; erstwhile and recent derivatives have positive EPO in the D6-10 time range. Since the weight of its ensemble mean is in this apparent opposition ... makes the operational version lest trust-worthy than the usual grain-of-salt longer range. 

 

There are subtle cues abroad though that suggest - regardless of permanency - the hemisphere in general might allow for a breakdown of sorts.   I am noticing the parade of west Pacific TC's is moving more west/correcting toward west in time ... As well, though I think the MJO is less useful at this time of year (do to R-wave/seasonal constraints), seeing it's odd-ball behavior of collapsing from upper tier wave-strength to nearly incoherence with literally 0 eastward propagation while doing so over the next week (GFS ensembles)  ... may also signal that the wave is encountering negative interference/ thus ineffectual at influencing a circulation that is damping/normalizing its presence.  Anyway, these little nuggets may not mean much, but should a -PNAP or at least neutral PNAP end up over North America, they could be indicative. 

 

In the end I see the lower chance of east ridge, too.  Persistence is hard to see outside of - it's like "atmospheric Stockholm Syndrome"  After two years of blocking, temperature summers and cold stormy winters ... we've grown to align our thinking that way.. Ha!

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Dude, you just nailed it!  I put my toms and cukes in over a month ago, and though they don't look terrible in terms of leaf health and color ... they have grown ...maybe a 1/4 " - really.  Not much hyperbole there; they just are utterly stunted.  In fact, the toms have started putting our fruit, which also are like micro sized.  The beef-steakers are like marbles...  

 

f'g pissed!   

My indoor sown cukes failed miserably during the dry May so I had to direct sow a new batch in early June. They're up, but only a few inches tall. Like you said, everything looks stunted, but I did notice some obvious growth overnight last night. I started a late pumpkin patch last week and went from no seedlings yesterday afternoon to about 15 this morning. My mammoth sunflowers are finally up over a foot too. It could be worse I guess (1816...lol).

 

For Ginxy...my highest 6" soil temps by July 5th since I moved here...

 

2007: 74F

2008: 74F

2009: 71F

2010: 75F

2011: 74F

2012: Missing Data (lightning strike)

2013: 77F

2014: 76F

2015: 70F

 

 

So this actually puts me behind 2009 soil temp wise. Thankfully that should change over the next couple of days.

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My indoor sown cukes failed miserably during the dry May so I had to direct sow a new batch in early June. They're up, but only a few inches tall. Like you said, everything looks stunted, but I did notice some obvious growth overnight last night. I started a late pumpkin patch last week and went from no seedlings yesterday afternoon to about 15 this morning. My mammoth sunflowers are finally up over a foot too. It could be worse I guess (1816...lol).

 

For Ginxy...my highest 6" soil temps by July 5th since I moved here...

 

2007: 74F

2008: 74F

2009: 71F

2010: 75F

2011: 74F

2012: Missing Data (lightning strike)

2013: 77F

2014: 76F

2015: 70F

 

 

So this actually puts me behind 2009 soil temp wise. Thankfully that should change over the next couple of days.

 

I'm in a home improvement phase ... I've updated/rehung the front door, all the way out to new trim. I'm re-shingling the back roof, and soon after, ...planning on:

 

-Quaint, yet stylish new front porch and awning system.

-Re-paving the walk to and including the driveway slab (small and accommodates a single automobile).

-New shed for backyard.    

 

Most of that should be down by this next spring.  Then, I am seriously contemplating purchasing landscaping stones and putting in an elevated box-garden.  I'm not getting enough sun where the bed currently is.. I have this 150', 200+ year-old Maple tree adjacent my yard, and the sun goes behind it at 1:20pm... It's sunny all morning and then it's like a closet door shuts over the garden too early in the day.  

 

But, I am thinking, with an elevated garden bed in a box I can invent a greenhouse cover that I put in place every late afternoon..  I've learned over the years of gardening hobby that "last freeze" dates mean just about nothing to growth strength.  If one relies on that ..they do so at their own peril.  Because nights hold up in the upper 40s in June may as well just be f'n snowin, man! 

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Then, I am seriously contemplating purchasing landscaping stones and putting in an elevated box-garden.  I'm not getting enough sun where the bed currently is.. I have this 150', 200+ year-old Maple tree adjacent my yard, and the sun goes behind it at 1:20pm... It's sunny all morning and then it's like a closet door shuts over the garden too early in the day.  

 

But, I am thinking, with an elevated garden bed in a box I can invent a greenhouse cover that I put in place every late afternoon..  I've learned over the years of gardening hobby that "last freeze" dates mean just about nothing to growth strength.  If one relies on that ..they do so at their own peril.  Because nights hold up in the upper 40s in June may as well just be f'n snowin, man! 

Is Kevin measuring your maple trees?  

 

Be aware that by covering your plants, you're also reducing the availability of the flowers to pollinators/wind.  The tomatoes and peppers I grow in a greenhouse require daily hand pollination otherwise you'll be lucky to see more than a handful of fruit.  You'd probably only need it in June though, likely well before they start to flower.  

 

I killed most of my tomatoes this year thanks to a malfunction with my irrigation timer.  lol.

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Is Kevin measuring your maple trees?  

 

Be aware that by covering your plants, you're also reducing the availability of the flowers to pollinators/wind.  The tomatoes and peppers I grow in a greenhouse require daily hand pollination otherwise you'll be lucky to see more than a handful of fruit.  You'd probably only need it in June though, likely well before they start to flower.  

 

I killed most of my tomatoes this year thanks to a malfunction with my irrigation timer.  lol.

 

Well, - as I said, "late afternoon" ...code for just the overnights. 

 

But word, need bees.   

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