Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2015 Author Share Posted July 25, 2015 Euro says dews for days with 70 + dews tomorrow and again Thursday BOX bangs HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE BUT DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 70 UNTIL THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Euro says dews for days with 70 + dews tomorrow and again Thursday BOX bangs HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE BUT DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 70 UNTIL THURSDAY. 70 + dews tomorrow and again Thursday DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 70 UNTIL THURSDAY. you didn't see the problem with your post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Dew you really think this is a month filled with Dew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2015 Author Share Posted July 25, 2015 Yes. Classic dew setup there with bn highs but a lot of SSE humid flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Yes. Classic dew setup there with bn highs but a lot of SSE humid flow yea nothing says high dewslike a strongly positive PNA and NW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2015 Author Share Posted July 25, 2015 That's not NW flow me friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 That's not NW flow me friend hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 I dunno ... the heat is still looking transient and not out of control to me. The 00z Euro broke the chain of 00z runs being very hot, and looked more like the 12z run from yesterday (which was less by overall complexion comparatively...) It appears the persistence ...whatever the cause for it being so, may usurp that "big heat" look and temper down to something more seasonal. ...That's the trend at the moment. We'll see if it holds... But if this thing winnowed all the way down to 88/92/90 type heat, wouldn't shock me. DPs ..sure, may get them into the upper 60s until a deeper house cleaning fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 I just think "big heat" is not in the cards this year ... The large scale, hemispheric heat source and heat sink balancing just keeps forcing jet structures against that which would bring 99 F afternoons. Could still happen I suppose, but I think it would be a anomaly, within an anomaly - so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Dew you really think this is a month filled with Dew? I think that's going to bust hard in New England. I see signs of the WAR flexing increasingly suggesting a much better likelihood of aoa and humid. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2015 Author Share Posted July 25, 2015 Pretty summery Euro run today right thru till the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 I think that's going to bust hard in New England. I see signs of the WAR flexing increasingly suggesting a much better likelihood of aoa and humid. Time will tell.maybe but it's not alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 American MOS products already at a mediocre joke for temperatures now. HFD...BED, BOS... low 90s at best, and, since that is an incremental step down, as was said in "Plains, Trains and Automobiles" - "You're going the wrong way!" I suspect this warm up this week is not different than priors - that's what I'm buckin' on at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 I think that's going to bust hard in New England. I see signs of the WAR flexing increasingly suggesting a much better likelihood of aoa and humid. Time will tell.the nmme agrees with you http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead1.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 We AROD. We DEW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 We AROD. We DEWWe juice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 We juice? We WIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 We WIN Congrats on #28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Well, maybe we will buck trend this week. .. If so, I really do think it is an "anomaly inside an anomaly" What that means is, the longer term, base-line pattern is still the same blocked tendencies in the 60th parallel, which imposes a bit of a +PNAP pattern on the CONUS ...thus we shunt heat S much of the time; but, that base-line pattern can be perturbed, even though it is still in place. I was just taking a look at the CDC teleconnectors, and tho in general those statistical correlations are less coherent in the warm seasons, there is till a somewhat less than vague indication there of the same sort of configuration we saw much of the time over the last 18 months; which features some sort of ridge node near the Alaskan sector occasionally connecting with a Rockies ridge. Shortened wave lengths and overall weaker gradient associated with summer might merely protect mid latitudes from what that would mean in any other season: cold! ...Keeping in mind, that's based upon the GFS ensembles, too ... I think THAT is your longer term probability while we negotiate through this 3-5 year chapter in the 30-year, and any warm biases within are 'anomalies relative to that longer term anomaly'. In any case, it was impressive to see +20 C at 850 mb level to the southern tip of James Bay on the 00z Euro. That is solidly inside the D4.5 magical cut off where it goes from amplitude zealotry to something a bit more eerily undeniable. More over, given the overall synoptic circulation appeal through D5 that's really got nowhere else to go but on a classic trek for how New England gets its hottest air. This air mass, by the way, was also a Sonoran release - I have a little more confidence in the big heat now over yesterday. The seasonal trend and persistence have been trumped by the Euro's bringing 'over-the-top' available heat to southern Canada on a D3 chart - that was a big first step in my mind. Will mentioned a couple of days ago that he thought this one had more support ... he may be right for whatever reason, but I really needed to see the plume up into western Ontario inside of the middle range for erstwhile reasons. Yesterday at this time, I was still highly suspecting the 00z would continue along the idea of shunting more and more; again, keeping with said trend/base-line pattern to do so right from mid ranges through to verification(s). Again, the plume of EML and associated 850 Sonoran charged heat actually passing over W-S Ontrario and W Quebec extends confidence in what that will mean for D4/5, here, at this point. We'll see what exotic means the atmosphere comes up with now to f that vision up too - Barring that happening, wow... It looks like +22 C (perhaps) passing over the region during the heat up hours of D 5, after D 4 left a very high launch pad... Firstly, a well mixed BL to the 850 mb level, adiabatic extrapolates to 36 C at 1000 mb, and then adding the index finger 2 C for 2-meter super-adiabatic to lowest 50 mb (for ideal heating) ...all equates to an impressive buck and change high. The 700 mb RH is even less than 50% which suggests casting unabated sun during those two days, too. As far as the model being @ 90 F or close to that right out to D 10 like that...no comment and lower than normal confidence even for those ranges for spoken reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Statistical Mets consider +1 -1 to be insignificant enough in a monthly set to be considered normal. Of course I'm aware ... but what I really mean is that the flow could mimic a below normal one, and still end up a tick above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOMEINTERIOR LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 I broke off the last couple pages of posts since they were focused on August. New thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46667-august-2015-pattern-and-disco/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Congrats on #28. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Yup, All out torch Tues-83°F Weds-85°F Thurs-80°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Yup, All out torch Tues-83°F Weds-85°F Thurs-80°F Sad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Sad we don't live there I find your area and mine run close on temps quite often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 I find your area and mine run close on temps quite often Glad we don't live there or there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Glad we don't live there or there. Or there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Glad we don't live there or there. Glad you fixed your fan to get back in line with us. Yup, All out torch Tues-83°F Weds-85°F Thurs-80°F Nice onshore flow on some of the models for you Thu to undercut the torch aloft. We'll see how that shakes out. The 12z GFS has that boundary back to E of the CT river in NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Glad you fixed your fan to get back in line with us. Nice onshore flow on some of the models for you Thu to undercut the torch aloft. We'll see how that shakes out. The 12z GFS has that boundary back to E of the CT river in NH. One of the advantages to being on the coastal plain especially in the summer with the right wind direction aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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