Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Wow those numbers have rocketed up. Impressive . Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Wow those numbers have rocketed up. Impressive . Wow wut? your hometown Staffordville Coop has been -1.9 since you asked a week ago, your call of AN for June, July, Aug is in deep deep trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 July lock to be AN . Aug will hold the key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 July lock to be AN . Aug will hold the keylol, obvious you have not seen LR guidance, we shall use Staffordville COOP where people live as judge and jury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 lol, obvious you have not seen LR guidance, we shall use Staffordville COOP where people live as judge and jury. All LR guidance keeps at or above normal thru day 14 in SNE..Couple days like tomorrow and Monday sprinkled in..a little drier 90 Tuesday..etc. I'd take that -1.9 with a grain of salt..but admit we are forced to use it. But I'll go by ORH as the more reliable hill town indicator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 All LR guidance keeps at or above normal thru day 14 in SNE..Couple days like tomorrow and Monday sprinkled in..a little drier 90 Tuesday..etc. I'd take that -1.9 with a grain of salt..but admit we are forced to use it. But I'll go by ORH as the more reliable hill town indicator 0h my, a tarmac 40 miles away over a COOP 6 miles away, got it. We remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 0h my, a tarmac 40 miles away over a COOP 6 miles away, got it. We remember Oh wow I am closer to ORH than DIT, perhaps I should use their numbers instead of the Foster Coop 9 miles away www.distance-cities.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Yeah, should be the warmest of the season ... I'm not thinking it is sustainable, as the discussion points I made earlier(above) are still valid in my mind. But what we've seen over the last 24-48 hours is quasi-Sonoran release ... if perhaps being homogenized by convection, so sustainability aside, get ready. First, note the MCS diving through western MI at this hour. That was NOT forecast' at all ...that I am aware (and no, I did not anally examine every possible thread of question/tool for convection....), but ...the 24 hour convection correlation with Michigan? Tomorrow morning does meet the MCS "checklist" (so to speak), regardless of what is modeled at this time. You have a quasi geostrophic flow with some turning aloft (0 6m bulk shear), and as the warm front completes it's destruction of today for outdoor plans .. there is likely to be a low level sort of pulse/convey of theta-e rich wind riding up into the back side of the boundary interface. ... Particularly up in lower Ontario. That gentle lift of huge DP heat could ignite nocturnal organization that turns SE just on the warm side of said boundary tonight. In fact the 12Z NAM does have a convective QPF node in SE NY late this evening as it is... Just be leery of that.... Upstream verification and general synoptic appeal, combined, ... Anyway, a piece of EML/and Sonoran 850 mb charged air broke off from the W/S two days ago and was ejected into the MW and GL... This air is slated to "clip" our area over the next two days, and in the absence of a deeper cool front, should rattle around under what sun cooking bakes through convective debris. We don't have a strong subsidence smashing ridge in the east, so the skies could and probably will be polluted at times. One thing is for certain, huge midwest soil moisture suck-up entangled in this incoming air mass. Combining vestigial Sonoran air with that theta-e will create interestingly horrid/torrid sensible strife. Considering we've had our foreheads gentle dabbed by "brutal" 88/55 type heat this season, thus far, heh. The 12z NAM is farting 94/68 for FIT tomorrow, and that's what, a HI of 103? In fact, that's "should" be advisory heat, particularly when sloping the criteria toward acclimation concerns. Plus, tomorrow night is hands down a nocturnal cooker. With these huge DPs, only light winds in a static continental warm sector that is charged with even quasi Sonoran 850 air is going to mean excessively high urban violence incidences, along with "full -moon" like spikes in law enforcement calls, in general. The NAM is doing something interesting though: heat trough. At first when I saw the 60 FRH grid, and noted LIs everywhere jolt from -5 (avg.) to +4 at hour 60, I thought ...hm, cool front. But upon analyzing the synoptic charts, that doesn't appear to be the case. I suspect that theta-e gradient being established by the heat trough. What happens is, the intensely static buoyantly hot air over the I-95 corridor, bends the wind west to west/NW over interior areas, and keeps the wind SW (more) E. Eventually that differentiates the air mass drier to wetter from west to east through the axis of the trough. So the loss in unstable LI appears to the loss of theta-e as the NAM then tries to move the trough axis like the front. But the front is still over the easter Lakes ...even out to 80 hours so this may be premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 All LR guidance keeps at or above normal thru day 14 in SNE..Couple days like tomorrow and Monday sprinkled in..a little drier 90 Tuesday..etc. I'd take that -1.9 with a grain of salt..but admit we are forced to use it. But I'll go by ORH as the more reliable hill town indicator Toss the nearby site that is -1.9 and use the site that's already +1.0.I thought it was BDL in the summer and ORH in winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Toss the nearby site that is -1.9 and use the site that's already +1.0. I thought it was BDL in the summer and ORH in winter? BDL -1.3...not bad. Are we still tacking off another 1-2F too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Looking at the departures for the first half of July and then looking at the ensembles suggest July may well end up subnormal unless some spectacular heat can occur on some days. Mid 80s the rest of the month won't cut it give the highest climo of the season. Also, there will be some steep negatives in between the warm spells it would seem. My call is +/- 0.5 all locations outside of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Looking at the departures for the first half of July and then looking at the ensembles suggest July may well end up subnormal unless some spectacular heat can occur on some days. Mid 80s the rest of the month won't cut it give the highest climo of the season. Also, there will be some steep negatives in between the warm spells it would seem. My call is +/- 0.5 all locations outside of ORH.Where are you seeing these cold blasts ? I didn't see anything BN. In a zonal flow those are tough to attain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Where are you seeing these cold blasts ? I didn't see anything BN. In a zonal flow those are tough to attainEg: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Well I did see Euro op, but that's just its usual bias of digging troughs deep into NE. It's been showing that days 8-10 most of this month and it hasn't really worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Well I did see Euro op, but that's just its usual bias of digging troughs deep into NE. It's been showing that days 8-10 most of this month and it hasn't really worked out Except it's on all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Except it's on all guidance.We'll see. I'm thinking there's no real cool or BN days. You've got Ginx in your corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Well I did see Euro op, but that's just its usual bias of digging troughs deep into NE. It's been showing that days 8-10 most of this month and it hasn't really worked out But the month has been below normal at a lot of sites up to this point. So the cooler air is coming from somewhere. No real reason to doubt any troughiness in the northeast on guidance, as it's not like we've been baking all month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 We'll see. I'm thinking there's no real cool or BN days. You've got Ginx in your corner I would prefer it hot but I have to call it as I see it. It definitely will be summery but I'm not sure enough to overcome cool nights occasional and warm but not hot days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I'm on vacay so I haven't looked at much except for MEX, but it's right back into the low 50s again to end the week. Only 2 days near 90? Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 I'm on vacay so I haven't looked at much except for MEX, but it's right back into the low 50s again to end the week. Only 2 days near 90? Meh.Id recommend looking a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Id recommend looking a bit moreJust did. Nice cool down on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Just did. Nice cool down on the euro.Well in zonal flow it can't stay 92/74 all week. So sure it has to mild off somewhat . But nothing cold or chilly or BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Well in zonal flow it can't stay 92/74 all week. So sure it has to mild off somewhat . But nothing cold or chilly or BNLook a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Look a bit more. Not sure why it's this difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Look a bit more. You thinking days of 60's and 70's for highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Not sure why it's this difficult. I gave up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 You thinking days of 60's and 70's for highs? BDL's average is 85/63 right now. So any high not in the mid-80s is below normal. It doesn't have to be highs in the 60s to be below normal. Yesterday was 82/54 and was -6...just good Chamber weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 BDL's average is 85/63 right now. So any high not in the mid-80s is below normal. It doesn't have to be highs in the 60s to be below normal. Yesterday was 82/54 and was -6...just good Chamber weather. So is that what you are thinking ! After this heat wave rest of month is near 80 and lows in 40's and 50's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 So is that what you are thinking ! After this heat wave rest of month is near 80 and lows in 40's and 50's?I'm thinking it can be below normal over the next 2 weeks, especially after the heat of the next couple days. Near normal or below is a real possibility this month. You may need to accept that at some point haha.Why do you always try to get into specific temp forecasts weeks out? Who is going to say every day will be 82/54 for the next two weeks straight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 So is that what you are thinking ! After this heat wave rest of month is near 80 and lows in 40's and 50's? Always have to twist it one last time for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.