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July 2015 Discussion


Powerball

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2.96" of rain in the last 48 hours has soaked the ground!

High of 82° only today. Convection ruled/beat back the heat - not complaining.

 

Local streams on the rise.

 

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL648 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015ILC097-111-190300-/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-150719T0300Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/MCHENRY IL-LAKE IL-648 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDTSATURDAY FOR NORTHERN MCHENRY AND LAKE COUNTIES...AT 642 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALLHAD ENDED...HOWEVER DOPPLER RADAR AND OBSERVERS INDICATE THAT 1 TOLOCALLY OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE AND NORTHERNMCHENRY COUNTIES. RUNOFF FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELYCONTINUE TO RESULT IN RISES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ON CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS.INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-94 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 24.I-294 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 24.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



			
		
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Hit 91 today.  Dews dropped back to the low 70s from mid afternoon on, and that made a huge difference.  

 

Looking forward to the sub 70 dews tomorrow.  Looking like a top shelf day.  One more day of high humidity coming for Monday, and then some more nice weather next week from the looks of things.

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DTW hit 91 at 12:27, talk about an overachiever for the time of day, if it wasn't for the clouds and showers we probably would have hit 95.

 

The mixing heights apparently got up to about 850mb, which is pretty impressive for that time of day, especially given how moist the profiles were.

 

With a nearly 10*F temperature rise in less than 2 hours, there was probably some compressional heating at work.

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Read you loud and clear. But, better be careful with wishing ill on others misfortune. I don't think you really quite grasp how this area can't take anymore rain. Not that you have any control over it. Honestly, this summer is really sucking the fun out of weather for me. I'm tired of rooting against rain. Might be about time to find a new hobby. :)

Is Watseka still under water, or have the waters began to recede yet? I know that's not exactly yby, but I have family in that area saying you can even get into town, but they aren't the most weather/severity literate.

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Is Watseka still under water, or have the waters began to recede yet? I know that's not exactly yby, but I have family in that area saying you can even get into town, but they aren't the most weather/severity literate.

 

Last I read, the water was receding across the hardest hit areas down there. I know the "main" northern and western entrance into Watseka (Route 1 and 24 intersection) was closed for a couple of days, but believe it has been re-opened. That part of town gets hit with a double whammy from the Iroquois River and Sugar Creek.

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Dew back down to 66.  Feels like a whole different world out there.  Hear a lot of mowers going this morning as everyone plays catch up after all the rain.  

 

Here's the breakdown here this summer so far..

June 8.90"

July 8.11"

Summer 17.01"

 

Doesn't look as wet going forward, but since we still have a few weeks left in July we still may reach double digits for the month.

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Powerball ---->  :):tomato::drunk:

Yep, that is why I said just let the weather happen yesterday instead of getting all bent out of shape. We haven't had much rain this month so it isn't surprising that we overachieved a bit especially yesterday. 1.18" for the month, which is .69" below normal.

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Last I read, the water was receding across the hardest hit areas down there. I know the "main" northern and western entrance into Watseka (Route 1 and 24 intersection) was closed for a couple of days, but believe it has been re-opened. That part of town gets hit with a double whammy from the Iroquois River and Sugar Creek.

Yeah, saw some photos of the McDonald's flooded by about 3 feet of water and knew things were bad. Didn't know exact severity as my grandma gives me descriptions like "I had to take a 20 mile detour to get into town".

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How are the fields looking where you are? In NW Ohio they've been essentially decimated by the rains. I would say many farmers are looking at major losses

 

Overall I would grade the fields as "good". There are a lot of large patches though were there is/was standing water and the crop there is dead or stunted. If we get some good heat for the second half of the summer and avoid any late wind storms that lay down the corn, then like KRFD says there could be quite a positive surprise come harvest.

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Can't speak to there specifically, but in the "I" (Iowa Illinois Indiana) states the corn crop is starting to look a lot like the El Niño crop of 2009. All indications are a record yield is on the way. Some crops have been lost, some don't look the best, but when we get to harvest I think we're going to be surprised at the yields from some of the mediocre looking crops. Soybeans were planted late, but doing excellent right now, right on track and very healthy. Big problem - there was a lot of uncertainty for the weather this year, a lot of farmers have a lot of the '14 harvest in storage, holding out for better values if this turned out to be a bad growing season. Record yield plus record storage = very low prices, not the worst thing ever, but not great.

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This is not going to be a record corn crop. To much water damage for one and there is a lot of disease beginning to move into the area, which is early. Crop conditions reports have declined for three weeks. We will likely be closer to trend line if not a touch below.
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...a lot of farmers have a lot of the '14 harvest in storage, holding out for better values if this turned out to be a bad growing season. 

 

I know of at least three farmers that have been busy all June and July moving corn from storage to the rail heads. Another problem has been that due to the excessive rain, some of the roads have remained posted (spring weight limit). Some are still posted today! I think some of the grain trains have also been delayed or slowed down because of water.

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Yeah the amount of standing water in the fields increased late yesterday around here. I would say the corn crop about 5' tall right now locally.

80°/62° right now. Pretty nice for a mid July afternoon.

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Yep, that is why I said just let the weather happen yesterday instead of getting all bent out of shape. We haven't had much rain this month so it isn't surprising that we overachieved a bit especially yesterday. 1.18" for the month, which is .69" below normal.

Yesterday would have had the potential to overachieve as the high hit 91 at like 1230pm, but with the clouds, the rest of the afternoon the highest was 87F, so in a sense it underachieved a bit Id say. Today was about as expected.

 

Today was the first 90F of the year for DET.

 

DTW hit 90F for the 3rd time this year (90, 91, 91), though today was the first time a top-of-the-hour obs actually had a 90F reading. While it is indeed uncomfortable, it really is weak on so many levels compared to most years. Im one of the biggest heat-haters there is, and I was in and out all day with a friend yesterday in Birch Run, and it wasnt nearly the unbreathable disaster I was expecting :lol:

 

It does appear this will likely be the 3rd straight summer with 90F days below normal. Normal is 12, and look at the odd trend since 2008:

 

90F+ days per year at DTW

NORMAL - 12

2008 - 7

2009 - 4

2010 - 17

2011 - 23

2012 - 30

2013 - 7

2014 - 4

2015 - 3 so far

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Currently 86/75/95 imby, and simply unbearable out. Today has definitely one of the muggiest days I have seen since I began recording in 2010. A few neighborhoods nearby have recorded dewpoints in the low to mid 80s. South London is 15 degrees cooler and was stuck under slow moving thunderstorms until a few minutes ago, go figure.

Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk

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you certainly may be right but I was hearing the same this time in 09. Once we got out to harvest the corn just kept coming. A lot of folks were surprised. This is not 09, but similar in many ways.

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Certainly localized areas are toast. (Most of Kankakee and Iroquois counties for example), but driving north from DEC, noticed your normal flooded spots, but for the most part the corn looked great, especially down south.

Real problem could be moisture content if we can't break this pattern. Farmers would be forced to take advantage of whatever dry day they have for harvest, and pay to dry it. With so much in storage from last year potentially lowering prices, anything that cuts that margin further is bad news.

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you certainly may be right but I was hearing the same this time in 09. Once we got out to harvest the corn just kept coming. A lot of folks were surprised. This is not 09, but similar in many ways.

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We have just had way to much rain over the too big an area to have a record corn yield. 2009 was wet and cool like last year, this year had been record wet. That's the difference IMO. I sell ag products in my area. I know of probably 10 percent of the corn fields that will be close to zero in our area. Beans maybe little higher acreage. With missouri in the mix I just don't see zny way to get to a record. Like I said trend line may be a better guess. I would also think corn climbs to 5 during harvest and beans go above 12.
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