cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Looking like another stretch of heavy rain potential coming up from Saturday through much of the upcoming week. Some of the same areas that have been getting dumped on look to be in the trolley tracks again. ROF looks to be pretty stout all next week, but may have a tendency to sink a little south/west as effective boundaries fight off the heat dome. Hopefully that will be the case as many areas won't be able to handle too much heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Looking like another stretch of heavy rain potential coming up from Saturday through much of the upcoming week. Some of the same areas that have been getting dumped on look to be in the trolley tracks again. ROF looks to be pretty stout all next week, but may have a tendency to sink a little south/west as effective boundaries fight off the heat dome. Hopefully that will be the case as many areas won't be able to handle too much heavy rain. Yeah, I-80 and south may float downstate to Kentucky with too much more rain; but then again, 1-2 training MCS's over I-88 corridor and north would be hugely problematic as well, considering we are still soaked from our training event of several weeks ago, and the 2+ inches received a few days ago. Add in that it takes about nothing to flood Chicago proper, and things could get miserable fast for a lot of people. Need a Milwaukee to Rockford line (or north) to take the brunt of a few rounds, but not sure I would bet a dime on that. Have a lot of family in the Gilman, Chatsworth, Piper city, Ashkum, and Watseka areas that are still pumping flooded basements from the other night, after working on it all day yesterday. IKK may have gotten spared a bit, but 25-30 miles south was not so lucky. Personally and selfishly, my sump pump is finally only cycling once every 90 minutes or so, and would love to keep it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Yeah, I-80 and south may float downstate to Kentucky with too much more rain; but then again, 1-2 training MCS's over I-88 corridor and north would be hugely problematic as well, considering we are still soaked from our training event of several weeks ago, and the 2+ inches received a few days ago. Add in that it takes about nothing to flood Chicago proper, and things could get miserable fast for a lot of people. Need a Milwaukee to Rockford line (or north) to take the brunt of a few rounds, but not sure I would bet a dime on that. Have a lot of family in the Gilman, Chatsworth, Piper city, Ashkum, and Watseka areas that are still pumping flooded basements from the other night, after working on it all day yesterday. IKK may have gotten spared a bit, but 25-30 miles south was not so lucky. Personally and selfishly, my sump pump is finally only cycling once every 90 minutes or so, and would love to keep it that way. If the day shift doesn't do it, I'm 95% confident I'll be hoisting a Flash Flood Watch for tomorrow night on tonight's overnight shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 If the day shift doesn't do it, I'm 95% confident I'll be hoisting a Flash Flood Watch for tomorrow night on tonight's overnight shift. The rain has been relentless for IL/IN/OH/KY since June. You guys will need to build an ark soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Southern WI could definitely take the heavy rain as opposed to 100 miles further south. The train tracks may not move all that much though. Spotted the smoke plume coming into the area on satellite. Skies definitely looking hazy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 83/66 now with hazy sunshine. A noticeable jump in dews this morning. Rain chances seem to be decreasing for this weekend. Drying out and heating up. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Looking like another stretch of heavy rain potential coming up from Saturday through much of the upcoming week. Some of the same areas that have been getting dumped on look to be in the trolley tracks again. ROF looks to be pretty stout all next week, but may have a tendency to sink a little south/west as effective boundaries fight off the heat dome. Hopefully that will be the case as many areas won't be able to handle too much heavy rain. It's still unclear if any heavy stuff will pan out over here in Iowa. The Euro now only has scattered showers for my area Saturday as the disturbance blows up over sw Iowa late tonight, poops out during the day as it crosses Iowa, then refires over Illinois Saturday night. The rest of the extended period is still a mystery. Some model runs pop up some action over here now and then, but other runs keep everything northeast/east of Iowa. It's probably something we won't know until the day of each event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 It's still unclear if any heavy stuff will pan out over here in Iowa. The Euro now only has scattered showers for my area Saturday as the disturbance blows up over sw Iowa late tonight, poops out during the day as it crosses Iowa, then refires over Illinois Saturday night. The rest of the extended period is still a mystery. Some model runs pop up some action over here now and then, but other runs keep everything northeast/east of Iowa. It's probably something we won't know until the day of each event. 4km NAM has been pretty consistent in blowing up severe storms over central and northern IA tomorrow that would impact you guys. Seems reasonable as that will be right on the nose of that incoming upper jet energy. Also a subtle little mid-level wave passes through around that time. 18z NAM dews for Monday are ghastly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Also, lol @ NAM showing over 5000j/kg surface based cape at 1AM sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Smoky/hazy skies have increased this afternoon. I guess we have to have a few super humid days, but hopefully with dewpoints not into the 80s! 4km is probably nuts! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 When you hear several people comment how "hot" it was outside earlier and it was still 5 degrees below normal. Summer 2015 in a nutshell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Were it not for the low inversion heights on Monday, western areas of the subforum would probably be flirting with highs near 100F. Those are some very warm 850 mb temps being progged, especially by this summer's standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 The Euro has consistently been advertising some extreme cape building in the western portion of our sub next weekend. The latest run has a large blob of cape maxed out on weatherbell's color chart (6000j/kg) over almost all of Iowa next Sunday the 12th. So I guess we can assume the NAM would indicate 10000j/kg if it could go out that far lol. Still a long ways off, but it's nice to see some real heat/summertime instability back in the medium-range. Euro did a fantastic job with seeing this extreme instability potential about a week ago or so. It's also showing another potentially impressive setup early next weekend. Another pool of extreme cape with some seasonally impressive mid and upper support. Going to be a fun next 6-8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 77 degrees and muggy as #$&^#$#. No relief the next week, with highs in the low 80s, muggy, and chance of thunderstorms everyday through next weekend. Lather, rinse, repeat. When you hear several people comment how "hot" it was outside earlier and it was still 5 degrees below normal. Summer 2015 in a nutshell! "It's not the heat, it's the humidity" - Summer 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 77 degrees and muggy as #$&^#$#. No relief the next week, with highs in the low 80s, muggy, and chance of thunderstorms everyday through next weekend. Lather, rinse, repeat. "It's not the heat, it's the humidity" - Summer 2015 meh its not THAT muggy . Even though its low 80s, a week without highs in the 70s or even 60s will seem hot. It shouldnt in July, but it will. Every day since June 23rd has been below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 11, 2015 Author Share Posted July 11, 2015 "It's not the heat, it's the humidity" - Summer 2015 2010 fyp. As michsnowfreak said, it's just been so cold and cloudy lately that even "normal" temps under the sun seems hot to many folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 I wasn't expecting much today, but it's still disappointing to see the MCS miss south. I'm not optimistic about later/tonight, either. Sunday night looks much more interesting. The new hi-res nam has a strong line diving southeast across eastern Iowa late Sunday night, which would be our first exciting weather in a couple weeks. This time clouds, showers, and low cape won't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Overcast so far today. Dewpoints are creeping up this morning. Into the low 60s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 A pretty ominous look to the 12z 4k NAM. It's showing a serious line that develops in central MN and marches SE. With 90/75 and SBCape exceeding 4000 J/kg, things could really take off tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Picked up 0.31" of rain here so far today. Still sprinkling. That's enough to push us over the 5" mark for July. Heavier rains made it into the QCA. DVN picked up 0.55", and MLI had 0.79". The start of what could be a really wet stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Widespread 2-5" rains fell late last night/early this morning over southern IA. Only going to add more moisture to an already juicy atmosphere over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Heat Advisory up for tomorrow for portions of IA and MN, including the TC metro (which has lower HI criteria than others). Should feel like 100 late tomorrow afternoon. Enhanced severe wx threat as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 fyp. For sure. The only difference is 2010 had some heat, including an early July heatwave across the eastern half of our subforum. 2015 has lacked any heat across our region, unless if you count those warm days in May LOL. meh its not THAT muggy . Even though its low 80s, a week without highs in the 70s or even 60s will seem hot. It shouldnt in July, but it will. Every day since June 23rd has been below normal. Yup. I haven't seen TRUE muggy weather imby since September 2013. When I posted this morning, it was 77 degrees with a dewpoint of 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 RN- started around 4pm here. Made it to 75° with complete overcast all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Well, we snuck through the first day of the heavy rainfall threat fairly unscathed (0.36"). The morning and early afternoon complex kept the effective boundary further south, and focused the rejuvenated convection well to the south. Pretty typical for ROF action. We may not be so lucky over the next few days however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 1.95 in the tippy bucket with this a.m.'s rumblers. If we do this two or three more times in the next three days, someone is going to float away in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 0.06" from last nights showers. Bright and sunny today so far. Dewpoint up to 66°. With an East wind all day, it will probably struggle to hit 80° again. Summer of 2012 you couldn't even buy a sub 80° high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Socked in with rain and clouds once again with a temp in the middle 60s. Getting close to finishing up with another .2" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Dense low-level clouds have kept temps down here so far. They are breaking up to the south, so should get some sun here in a little while. Highest dews are pooling out over the western 2/3rds of Iowa, and up into southwest MN. Seeing quite a few legit 76-78s showing up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Lake Michigan so far shielding areas near it from the heat and high dewpoints. So far only a dewpoint of 67°. A big variety of clouds in the region today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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