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July 2015 Discussion


Powerball

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Today's 12z NAEFS probably has the least red (warmth) on the west coast that we've seen in ages. It's not just the US either, it's all the way up into Canada. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end of the RRR.

 

AywEYVW.png

 

Edit: I just realized... RRR has its own Wikipedia page. :lol: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge

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18z RGEM still says "what heavy rain?"  Going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

Looking at current radar...hug the NAM, punt the RGEM.

 

Heavy rain gathering to the southwest of here and making a beeline. 2"+ should be a lock...

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Cloudy and cool, felt like Fall not July 8th. The high of 67F at DTW missed the record by 1F, the record being 66F in 1891. The old 2nd coldest was 69F in 1899. FWIW, tomorrows record is 69F set in 1953. The high at DET was only 65F. So more or less, certainly a record cold territory type of day.

 

Not a typical sight during normal peak heating of the day on July 8th.

 

4410-800.jpg

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Rain around Pontiac definitely making a move towards Kankakee. Now JOT is going to miss out on the heavy rain.

I bet the mosquitoes are terrible down that way, Chicago Wx! Up here we got all these little ones along with gnats.

 

Misting here at 57°.

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Mosquitos are terrible here. So much standing water...so much breeding ground. 

 

Raining pretty good here now. ILX radar is rather impressive with how it's lit up in the past hour. Radar estimating 1"+/hr rains just east of BMI now. Unfortunately, it's all headed towards IKK. My call of 2"+ from earlier today looks golden....unfortunately. 

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My forecast was for a very sunny day without clouds and lo and behold, its total overcast by 5:00 pm. That's the 18th time where it was forecast to be clear/sunny but instead overcast. Looks like I wasn't the only one.

 

Looks like we're going to be -6F or -7F on the month through the first 10 days. Perhaps this month will rival 2000 for lack of heat (at least that July had an interesting severe weather event).

 

Thinking about 2000 alone gives me the willies, not to mention experiencing a year so far worse than that. May in terms of temperatures was closest to that year. IIRC, winter was warmer than normal, had the big storm in May (nothing like that of course this time), June was avg to below avg while the rest of the summer was among the coldest I have scanned through for my region. Most will know of 2000 having the dubious distinction of no High Risk days and to add to that, crappy hurricane season. I hoped to never see another 2000 regime.

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1.86" at BMI last hour. Up to 3.25" for the day there. With more heavy rain to go.

 

0915 PM FLASH FLOOD BLOOMINGTON 40.48N 88.97W
07/08/2015 MCLEAN IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE ON SOUTH
AND EAST SIDE TOWN...TOWANDA BARNES AND OAKLAND...OAKLAND

AND VETERANS PARKWAY...COLLEGE AND AIRPORT ROAD

 

 

 

Pouring buckets here right now. Going to get crushed...again.

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1.86" at BMI last hour. Up to 3.25" for the day there. With more heavy rain to go.

 

 

 

Pouring buckets here right now. Going to get crushed...again.

Looks like your call unfortunately was money, Alek's miss call naso much.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1027 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...
BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...
JASPER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT THURSDAY/730 AM EDT THURSDAY/

* AT 1027 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO
THE WARNED AREA. RAIN...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING. RADAR
ESTIMATES...CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN. BY
MORNING...LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES ARE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. THIS RAIN IS FALLING ON
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND WILL RESULT IN NEAR IMMEDIATE RUNOFF
AND FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS WHICH ARE
ALREADY NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 258 AND 298.
I-65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 200 AND 225.

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00z GFS showing some extreme cape Sunday and Monday.  Pushing 8000j/kg on this sounding forecast over northern IL late Monday afternoon.  Can't wait to see what the NAM shows when it gets into range lol.

 

2zi1shl.jpg

Just a bit unstable.

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