Weathergun Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The 6z NAM doesn't too bad for for Northern CT and Western Mass. By 21z Wed, MLCAPE is up to 1500 J/kg, LI between -5 and -6 and 30-35kts of bulk shear. This is before the cold front arrives. The 6z GFS has better mid-level lapse rates and more SBCAPE at 18z Wed. Though, you will have to watchout for morning junk. Also for the best LLJ and moisture to shift east later in the afternoon. I wouldn't expect more than isolated strong-severe, at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Absolutley nothing happening tomorrow Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Why? The 00z KFS was an unmitigated disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Why?It all comes thru in morning. And it's SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The 00z KFS was an unmitigated disaster I thought tomorrow looked kind of interesting. Timing and clusters may be a pain to figure out, but good negative tilted trough moving in, colder air at 500 along with stronger winds at this level approaching. For once, may have some synoptic forcing to help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Ths will be an isolated or scattered marginal event like we've seen several times this year. A few towns will probably get a strong / borderline severe and the rest of us will be on the outside looking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 It all comes thru in morning. And it's SNE It can happen...I remember waking up one morning to the sound of hail as a line of thunderstorms popped up seemingly out of no where and that was at 8am. Ended up with nickel size hail, not alot of rain and not alot of thunder, but good hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Tomorrow is rather interesting. Keep an eye on what happens in eastern Pennsylvania today. That being said, I would like the 06z NAM for $1000 please Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The only time I remember getting lucky with one of these setups was a few years ago when I lived in Ellington just up the hill from the Ellington Golf Center. A nice discrete cell popped near Windsor Locks and took a diagonal for Ellington, throwing down 60 mile per hour winds and some quarter sized hail. At the time, I had family members in Windsor Locks, East Windsor, and myself and we all lost power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 What does E Pa this afternoon have to do with a round of 8:00 am showers in SNE tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 What does E Pa this afternoon have to do with a round of 8:00 am showers in SNE tomorrow? come on man ,you know that weather forecasting is also looking at upstream data and convection and seeing how boundaries and windfields evolve and not just looking at the models. That was a meteorologist that put up that post, not just any Joe Schmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 come on man ,you know that weather forecasting is also looking at upstream data and convection and seeing how boundaries and windfields evolve and not just looking at the models. That was a meteorologist that put up that post, not just any Joe SchmoI was honestly wondering/asking. Wasn't intended any other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I was honestly wondering/asking. Wasn't intended any other way well my apologies for assuming tone. I thought it was another attempt at stirring up the pot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 come on man ,you know that weather forecasting is also looking at upstream data and convection and seeing how boundaries and windfields evolve and not just looking at the models. That was a meteorologist that put up that post, not just any Joe Schmo That's where our round of 8 am showers is coming from isn't it....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Weird setup tomorrow but I'm guessing it probably won't wind up producing. Timing just seems off with drier air advecting in pretty quickly during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 If you like morning rain showers with no thunder and sunny afternoons then tomorrow is your special day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 If you like morning rain showers with no thunder and sunny afternoons then tomorrow is your special day Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Huh?evetything looks over by around noon. One of those mornings where we'll see a couple rounds of showers with embedded downpours and by early afternoon sunny breaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 love when Kev does the reverse jinx routine. The red tags fall for it every time.... he's reverse wishcasting his way to hail on the mountain !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Yes, looks like some early showers, but I wouldn't write the day off yet. I would certainly take this, for instance: valid 21z NAM sounding, northwest CT (from 12z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 SPC 1730z outlook ..NERN U.S... THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE MAINTAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...THOUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD HAVE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN DESTABILIZATION INCREASES FOR THAT REGION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY BY 18Z...THEN INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNSET. THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS PRECIPITATION/CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF DAY 2. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...WITH EVEN MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG SUGGESTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ROBUST CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO THE REST OF WRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AS CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD SUPPORT THIS SEVERE HAZARD TOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 SPC 1730z outlook ..NERN U.S... THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE MAINTAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...THOUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD HAVE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN DESTABILIZATION INCREASES FOR THAT REGION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY BY 18Z...THEN INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNSET. THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS PRECIPITATION/CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF DAY 2. SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...WITH EVEN MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG SUGGESTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ROBUST CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO THE REST OF WRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AS CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD SUPPORT THIS SEVERE HAZARD TOO. The more sun the more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The more sun the more fun. A couple negatives. One... the s/w passes by 15z so we're left with negative vorticity advection and rising heights in the afternoon. This could be a problem. Also - quite a bit of dry air filters in aloft - could choke things off. The one thing to watch though is there's still plenty of wind shear around so we will have to watch to see how things develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I remain interested. SREF progs are still a sneaky threat, and SPC WRF shows several rounds possible. Definitely a morning band of showers/storms, but the early afternoon round looks like the most robust. Finally a third round looks like they will pop along the actual trough axis late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I remain interested. SREF progs are still a sneaky threat, and SPC WRF shows several rounds possible. Definitely a morning band of showers/storms, but the early afternoon round looks like the most robust. Finally a third round looks like they will pop along the actual trough axis late in the day. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 :weenie: Another event finds GYX on the wrong side of the boundary. Looks like it will be a pseudo warm front laying NW to SE across the region. Residence time on the boundary should be pretty short for any cells, given the forecast motion to the NE, but current CAM forecasts aren't the worst I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 It will be interesting to see what the SSEO does in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 A couple negatives. One... the s/w passes by 15z so we're left with negative vorticity advection and rising heights in the afternoon. This could be a problem. Also - quite a bit of dry air filters in aloft - could choke things off. The one thing to watch though is there's still plenty of wind shear around so we will have to watch to see how things develop. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Couple nice TOR's now in E PA and Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Windexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.