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July 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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Seems like every day this summer has NYC in the 83-85 range, right around average. 

 

Forecast has 88F and sunny tomorrow, 89F and mostly sunny Sunday and Monday. Should push departures into the above average category before the cool-down expected by the middle of next week as the jet pushes into Quebec, as the trough finally makes it to the east. This is in line with what we'd expect from the westerly wind burst and sudden strengthening of ENSO that just occurred.

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The Euro is indicating the first real of push of heat this summer into Chicago around next

weekend. But it maintains troughing over the NE with a SSE flow instead of a SSW one

so the strongest heat doesn't make it here on this recent run. The warm front hangs

up just to the west of the region which could be the focus of convection.

get_legacy_plot-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-O9qAs4.gif

That can be a good setup for severe. Especially at the coast. At least relative to other setups

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The Euro is indicating the first real of push of heat this summer into Chicago around next 

weekend. But it maintains troughing over the NE with a SSE flow instead of a SSW one

so the strongest heat doesn't make it here on this recent run. The warm front hangs 

up just to the west of the region which could be the focus of convection.

 

attachicon.gifget_legacy_plot-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-O9qAs4.gif

 

There has been a bit of a back and forth on the last few days guidance with the extent of the heat expansion and a constant weakness over the northeast undercutting any progress of heights rising.  We'll see but the period to watch for any possible sustained/stronger heat is 7/19 - 7/23.  ECM / GFS back and forth between unsettled SSE flow vs more warmer SW flow..   Best bet is to ride normal overall..

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Full steam ahead with a fairly normal temp regime overall (next 10 days).  Still think potential exists for some heat in the 7/19 - 7/24 period.  We'll see if any expansion can get into the region. That aside looks like more heat across the pond...

 

test8.gif

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Not sure if the haze is attributed to canadian fires or not but very milky and potentially apparent on satellite.

I noticed the milky appearance to the sky, it look kinda odd to me, like overcast but cannot make out an actual cloud, if that makes sense, Anyway the sun is back now. I reached 91* personally today. Look like officially it'll be 88-90 in the and around the city. 

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