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July 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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My point was simply that I think today ends up being the hottest day of the year and that this week ends up being the climax of the big heat this Summer. That doesn't mean we won't have anymore warm spells but I think the days of 90+ for five consecutive days are over after this.

 

The GEFS maintain a Western US ridge well into the middle of the month and keep a mean trough over the East. The 12z EPS maintained this idea through the end of its run. Those aren't great signals for big heat East of the Apps.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_63.png

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93.4F high, couldn't beat the 93.8F from the 19th, or hit 95 for the first time since 2013. Maybe August (though I doubt it).

August looks a lot cooler with the burgeoning western ridge, and the likelihood of hitting 95+ really declines after around 8/15. Thus is not withstanding the historic September 1953 heatwave when NYC hit 100F in early September. Definitely thinking we go from major heat to autumnal quickly.
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Cooler and autum are too different thinks...we wont be in the 60s and days will still be in the 80s...thats not autumn..we go thru this every year

I would think we wouldn't be in the 60s for days because then you're talking a record cold August. Even after the cool down we may still see an occasional 90F or two and early September could still heat up.

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I wouldnt argue with that...its the word autumn like which gets thrown around to describe normal August weather we get every year

That's true, the only exception is last year it would have been Appropriate on a couple of occasions. Had some mornings in the low 50s that felt pretty cold. Otherwise yeah, I think August will be just fine. Might not see an extended period of 90s or something, but the heat will still show up. Like SnoSki said, we've had 90+ in September

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Newark at +1.2 so far for July. Tracking to finish below the major to record heat of 2010-2013


but warmer than 2014 and 2009.


 


July Newark temperature departures 2009-2015 and maximum temperature


 


.............TD....TMAX


2015...+1.2....98...so far


2014....-0.4....96


2013...+3.5...101


2012...+3.4...104


2011...+5.5...108


2010...+5.1...103


2009...-2.9....91

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