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July 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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You start getting used to the warm weather as long as the dews aren't too bad.

It's the same thing in the winter as long as the winds aren't too strong.

It'll be above normal but far from record breaking and then things cool off. Actually it'll be perfect pool and beach weather if anyone has the time/vacation.

That's very true. Today was 91°, but the Dewpoint was in the mid 60's so it really wasn't that bad.

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High of 90F at White Plains/HPN...currently 77F. I believe that's the 3rd 90-degree day here in Southern Westchester this summer. Should hit it easily tomorrow with forecasts in the 92-94F range and then slight cooling but still a shot at 90s through early next week. Brutal, but it's been a while since we had a period of heat like this in summer...we were due. August looks pretty cool so these might be the last really hot days of the season. 

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High of 90F at White Plains/HPN...currently 77F. I believe that's the 3rd 90-degree day here in Southern Westchester this summer. Should hit it easily tomorrow with forecasts in the 92-94F range and then slight cooling but still a shot at 90s through early next week. Brutal, but it's been a while since we had a period of heat like this in summer...we were due. August looks pretty cool so these might be the last really hot days of the season.

Same here. I'm just hoping August isn't as cool as people are making it out to be. I'm not saying I want blazing heat, but last year I remember lots of low 50's in the morning.
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Those hazy lazy crazy days of summer...warlock is in his element. ..you know its hot when the cicadas are still going late night

noticed that when I was out watering my garden earlier.. it's not often they're singing at night.. 

humidity did end up leveling off some in the afternoon, there was a breeze here for a little while..

nice summer night though.. i enjoy really warm summer evenings..

i'm not good with the numbers but hasn't it been below average temp wise this year? it doesn't seem like it's been the usual July.. I feel like Captain Obvious now.. gotta go 

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High of 90F at White Plains/HPN...currently 77F. I believe that's the 3rd 90-degree day here in Southern Westchester this summer. Should hit it easily tomorrow with forecasts in the 92-94F range and then slight cooling but still a shot at 90s through early next week. Brutal, but it's been a while since we had a period of heat like this in summer...we were due. August looks pretty cool so these might be the last really hot days of the season. 

True but you never know.

Last summer the hottest stretch of consistent warmth was very late Aug into Sept

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Newark at +0.9 so far for July and will add to that the next few days.

 

 

July Newark temperature departures 2009-2015 and maximum temperature

 

.............TD....TMAX

2015...+0.9....98...so far

2014....-0.4....96

2013...+3.5...101

2012...+3.4...104

2011...+5.5...108

2010...+5.1...103

2009...-2.9....91

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Lol good luck...thats the same as you sitting in the last week of January and saying no more snow. Just because there will be a cooldown doesn't mean the entire month will be cool

Of course not, but check out the August thread, there's some interesting discussion in there about what August may or may not do and some interesting El Nino analogs. 

 

Personally I'd like to see it warm, but I'm thinking there's a big cooldown coming.  If it's cooler, hoping it's at least dry.

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Lol good luck...thats the same as you sitting in the last week of January and saying no more snow. Just because there will be a cooldown doesn't mean the entire month will be cool

I agree. I seeing all these post about the August coolsown, like it's going to be the whole month. Doubt it. I'm pretty sure we see some warmth as well.

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I agree. I seeing all these post about the August coolsown, like it's going to be the whole month. Doubt it. I'm pretty sure we see some warmth as well.

 

The period to watch has been pushed back on the last few days of gudiance (since Sat 7/25).  It does looks like a trough builds in subsequent to the WC ridge in the 8/5 - 8/10 period.  The extent of cooling into the EC is still debatable.  It will clearly cool off from this heat but how much below normal will be interesting to track.  Beyond there mid august could see heights rise again in the east and perhaps WAR retrograde.

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I agree. I seeing all these post about the August coolsown, like it's going to be the whole month. Doubt it. I'm pretty sure we see some warmth as well.

When people are discussing a "cooldown", its in terms of compared to this heat now or relative to normal. Even below normal temps on avg are still "warm" here. No one has made any claims otherwise.

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When people are discussing a "cooldown", its in terms of compared to this heat now or relative to normal. Even below normal temps on avg are still "warm" here. No one has made any claims otherwise.

I obviously understand that.... I clearly posted that we will see some "warmth" meaning above temperatures relative to normal.

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The period to watch has been pushed back on the last few days of gudiance (since Sat 7/25).  It does looks like a trough builds in subsequent to the WC ridge in the 8/5 - 8/10 period.  The extent of cooling into the EC is still debatable.  It will clearly cool off from this heat but how much below normal will be interesting to track.  Beyond there mid august could see heights rise again in the east and perhaps WAR retrograde.

the cold gets muted east of the apps on most modeling. i doubt we even get more than a degree or two below average on the dailies
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Lol good luck...thats the same as you sitting in the last week of January and saying no more snow. Just because there will be a cooldown doesn't mean the entire month will be cool

Of course there will be some warmups with a few 90° days, but the predominant signature for August looks like cooler temps and Equal Chances of precipitation.
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I agree. I seeing all these post about the August coolsown, like it's going to be the whole month. Doubt it. I'm pretty sure we see some warmth as well.

 

I think the concern is with regard to climo. Even if the pattern flips back to above normal again it may be too late for major heat. By late Aug,  5 degrees above normal is still only mid 80s. Obviously it can still get very hot even into Sept but its gonna take a large departure from norm to do it.

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