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July 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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Crepe myrtles are blooming around my area - a signal that we've reached the height of summer. Very beautiful trees. Many of them suffered serious damage or died completely from last winter, as we are the northern extent of their range.

They are in full bloom in Manhattan. Out here nothing yet. The vivid color cultivars took the biggest hit as they tend to be the weakest. The lighter colors white an light pink are larger and more robust. My bright red Dynamite died right to the ground. It has sent out shoots and is about 3 feet tall. I doubt it flowers much. Ohh and it was 8 feet tall

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Don't forget the wet area in TX and OK-that's often a heat source region for us and without that, there's not much potential either.  Also agree, the -EPO last 2 years has been unreal with that ridge out west.  Hoping it can hold this winter, but not sure with a super nino and -AMO limiting blocking potential (Generally speaking)

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Don't forget the wet area in TX and OK-that's often a heat source region for us and without that, there's not much potential either.  Also agree, the -EPO last 2 years has been unreal with that ridge out west.  Hoping it can hold this winter, but not sure with a super nino and -AMO limiting blocking potential (Generally speaking)

 

2010-2013 was just a natural for major heat here with the ridge positioned just north of Hawaii and over the Great Lakes.

 

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Looks like an above normal July is a lock given more warmth post July 27. I wonder what August will do and how will the strong Nino affect it.

 

We will likely lose some ground between now and 7/26.  The last 4 days will make or break an above normal July.  Likely near or SA

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We will likely lose some ground between now and 7/26.  The last 4 days will make or break an above normal July.  Likely near or SA

NYC is averaging 78.0 for July as of yesterday...The Real 30 year average (1981-2010) is 76.9...I highlighted real because the normal is smoothed to 76.5...This makes me crazy...That's almost a half of a degree lower and is significant for July...

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Absolutely gorgeous here...78/52 at HPN (White Plains) with a brisk northwest wind. It's been such a change from the heat last weekend, amazing difference. Low of 61F last night made it very comfortable for sleeping without the A/C.

 

 

Low this morning was 59.7F here. I'm fully expecting sub 60F lows the next couple of nights. High so far today is 80F. My July temperature departure is -0.3 thus far.

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Low this morning was 59.7F here. I'm fully expecting sub 60F lows the next couple of nights. High so far today is 80F. My July temperature departure is -0.3 thus far.

My forecast low tonight is 58F, which is perfect. It's not a surprise that it'll get cool considering most dewpoints are in the low 50s.

 

I'm in a tennis league that meets Thursday evenings at 6pm, and tonight should be close to ideal playing conditions. We've had great weather for almost all our matches, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s, except for the first week which was the hot day we had in late June....it was in the upper 80s that night on the courts with high humidity. Humidity should be a non-factor tonight although the stiff NW breeze may blow the ball around. 

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Absolutely gorgeous here...78/52 at HPN (White Plains) with a brisk northwest wind. It's been such a change from the heat last weekend, amazing difference. Low of 61F last night made it very comfortable for sleeping without the A/C.

 

Probably about as comfortable as it gets for mid summer.

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Hate to spoil all the pleasant conditions thoughts, but the Cobb Data Table output is advertising 95-100 at end of month---7/29,30 so far as it goes.    I have no idea what the validity of this tool is for the warm season, only used it during cold season to track future snowstorm potential totals.

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GFS showing some nice summer time heat from Monday pretty much through the end of the run. Low and mid 90s through to next weekend then mid and upper 80s aftet that.

This is the hottest time of the year and mid to upper 80's is average and low 90's only slightly above.

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And the city couldn't go below 70.

it would become the 22nd day with a minimum 70 or higher this year...last year NYC had 33 days 70 or above with nine in a row at one point...anytime you get a year with at least 40 such days it was an uncomfortable summer...2005 has the most in recent years...2009 had only 18...

year total min 70+ consecutive 70+

1930..........26............8

1931..........34............7

1932..........25............6

1933..........33............6

1934..........26............4

1935..........29..........11

1936..........20............4

1937..........28............6

1938..........34..........12

1939..........44..........13

1940..........24............8

1941..........27............6

1942..........20............4

1943..........30............4

1944..........41..........14

1945..........29............4

1946..........11............3

1947..........30............5

1948..........29............6

1949..........43..........10

1950..........13............5

1951..........23............7

1952..........38..........12

1953..........34..........10

1954..........18............5

1955..........45..........13

1956..........20............5

1957..........31............5

1958..........26............4

1959..........46..........10

1960..........20............5

1961..........42............9

1962............8............2

1963..........14............5

1964..........19............4

1965..........17............4

1966..........40..........11

1967..........17............5

1968..........29............6

1969..........33............6

1970..........37..........10

1971..........45............9

1972..........30..........15

1973..........37..........11

1974..........26............3

1975..........23..........12

1976..........24............4

1977..........37............9

1978..........31..........13

1979..........42..........17

1980..........52..........22

1981..........39............8

1982..........30..........12

1983..........45..........13

1984..........40..........16

1985..........34............6

1986..........31............4

1987..........32............7

1988..........42..........21

1989..........28............5

1990..........32............8

1991..........31............7

1992..........14............4

1993..........35..........10

1994..........35............9

1995..........39..........18

1996..........22............5

1997..........27............8

1998..........39..........11

1999..........45..........13

2000..........22............4

2001..........30............9

2002..........43............9

2003..........33..........15

2004..........28............6

2005..........60..........14

2006..........41..........15

2007..........35............8

2008..........35............8

2009..........18............5

2010..........54..........22

2011..........40...........9

2012..........47..........10

2013..........51..........19

2014..........33............9

2015..........22............4 as of 7/24

1876..........46..........14

1902..........16............8

1903..........18............5

1906..........61..........17

1908..........54..........16

1888..........17............6

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the cool down, more pronounced outside the cities for obvious reasons.

 

NYC:

7/22: 85/69 (+0)

7/23: 86/70 (+1)

 

LGA:

7/22:  86/71 (+1)

7/23: 85/71 (+0)

 

EWR:

7/22: 87/68 (+0)

7/23: 87/67 (-1)

 

JFK:

7/22: 89/72 (+5)

7/23: 88/70 (+3)

 

TTN:

7/22: 84/64 (-2)

7/23: 82/62 (-4)

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