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July 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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BUST.  I spoke too soon.  Ugly model runs for the 4th now.

It looks convective in nature, not synoptic. Most of the day should be salvaged with perhaps some storms/showers in the early morning and then afternoon, but not everyone will see rain. I'll be down in Wildwood so I hope this continues to trend North or way South.

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10 Day Heats stays across the pond, but trough less deep in the east.  As far as heat nothing sustained on the horizon as of now.  Sunday could see some 90 degree spots.

 

test8.gif

 

 

both ensemble means have gotten warmer in the medium range. the rapid decay of the mjo wave into the COD after its peak is probably why

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

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This is going to be only the 2nd time in the 2000's that Newark hasn't recorded the first 95 degree

day by July 4th. The 2000's have been so warm that the only other time that this has happened 

was in 2009.

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