SACRUS Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Looks like a continued signal to drive trough into the wc with ridge pushin into the plains and GL. GFS builds heights and heat over the northeast next 7 - 10 days while ecm more suttle but overall warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Today's Highs: TEB: 81 NYC: 80 EWR: 81 LGA: 80 JFK: 79 ISP: 77 New Brunswick: 83 BLM: 75 TTN: 80 PHL: 82 ACY: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Back from the left coast to a splendid day. Midway thru July (where does the time go and where is the heat?) Even steven NYC: +0.7 EWR: -0.1 LGA: 0.0 JFK: +1.4 ISP: +1.0 TTN: -0.4 PHL: -.01 It's the lows. Highs are -0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Back from the left coast to a splendid day. Midway thru July (where does the time go and where is the heat?) Even steven NYC: +0.7 EWR: -0.1 LGA: 0.0 JFK: +1.4 ISP: +1.0 TTN: -0.4 PHL: -.01 Can you help me understand how departures work? I look at the 'Past Observed Weather' on the weather.gov site. This is what I see at TTN in the DEP column for the first 15 days of July: 1 -6 -3 -4 -1 2 6 5 1 1 1 1 2 0 -1 This adds up to +5. The site has TTN as -0.1. 5/15 = 0.333 How are departures calculated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Can you help me understand how departures work? I look at the 'Past Observed Weather' on the weather.gov site. This is what I see at TTN in the DEP column for the first 15 days of July: 1 -6 -3 -4 -1 2 6 5 1 1 1 1 2 0 -1 This adds up to +5. The site has TTN as -0.1. 5/15 = 0.333 How are departures calculated? The daily normal temperature is what is used for the departures...the normals are smoothed and are not the exact monthly averages...Todays departure in NYC was -5 but it was really -4.5...-4 max and -5 min... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Another pleasant evening... Currently 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 We're still managing to stay above normal despite a lack of big heat. Given we're expecting to heat up somewhat in a couple days, we're likely going to end up around +1 or higher region wide. I guess a +1 is what qualifies as a cool summer these days. Just wait until the real heat returns in coming years. It'll make 2010 look like an ice age soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 17, 2015 Author Share Posted July 17, 2015 Hoping for upper 50s but lower 60s will do for tonight's lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Hoping for upper 50s but lower 60s will do for tonight's lows ...51* @ KFOX...56* here in eastport.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 17, 2015 Author Share Posted July 17, 2015 ...51* @ KFOX...56* here in eastport.. How lovely. Down to 64 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 17, 2015 Author Share Posted July 17, 2015 So is the nam and gfs still showing an EML and 3k cape for tomorrow? What does the euro have to say? And how about Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Models continue 90+ potential on Sunday especially away form the immediate coast. Looks like a seabreeze front pushes west as the afternoon progresses with a SSE bend in the streamlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 We're still managing to stay above normal despite a lack of big heat. Given we're expecting to heat up somewhat in a couple days, we're likely going to end up around +1 or higher region wide. I guess a +1 is what qualifies as a cool summer these days. Just wait until the real heat returns in coming years. It'll make 2010 look like an ice age soon. What are you talking about? 2010 was the hottest summer on record in NYC, just beating out 1966. 2011 had the highest temperature since 1977 with a high of 104F in Central Park. Those are the exception, not the rule. Even in 2050 or 2100, Summer 2010 won't look like an "ice age" as you put it.A +1 departure isn't what qualifies as a cool summer, even in today's somewhat warmer climate. June finishes like -0.5F at Central Park, and July will be near +1, so August will determine the summer anomaly. We have had some actual cold summers like 2000, 2004, 2009...those had months in the -3F category. 2014 was a cool summer with fewer than ten 90-degree days. NYC only has one this summer. So, please stop pontificating about climate change and hot summmers. It hasn't been hot in 2015 or 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 So is the nam and gfs still showing an EML and 3k cape for tomorrow? What does the euro have to say? And how about Monday? Tomorrow's threat sh*t the bed but there's still a chance of isolated storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Today's Highs: TEB: 81 NYC: 81 EWR: 81 LGA: 80 JFK: 80 ISP: 77 New Brunswick:84 BLM: 77 TTN: 82 PHL: 83 ACY: 878 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 What are you talking about? 2010 was the hottest summer on record in NYC, just beating out 1966. 2011 had the highest temperature since 1977 with a high of 104F in Central Park. Those are the exception, not the rule. Even in 2050 or 2100, Summer 2010 won't look like an "ice age" as you put it. A +1 departure isn't what qualifies as a cool summer, even in today's somewhat warmer climate. June finishes like -0.5F at Central Park, and July will be near +1, so August will determine the summer anomaly. We have had some actual cold summers like 2000, 2004, 2009...those had months in the -3F category. 2014 was a cool summer with fewer than ten 90-degree days. NYC only has one this summer. So, please stop pontificating about climate change and hot summmers. It hasn't been hot in 2015 or 2014. Hey, not everyone lives in Dobbs Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Today's Highs: TEB: 81 NYC: 81 EWR: 81 LGA: 80 JFK: 80 ISP: 77 New Brunswick:84 BLM: 77 TTN: 82 PHL: 83 ACY: 878 Slightly hot in Atlantic City today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Slightly hot in Atlantic City today. Hope everyone is safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Coming into the city today and I'm a bit worried about storms atm....any thoughts, particularly on the storms currently in C PA and also in NW NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Coming into the city today and I'm a bit worried about storms atm....any thoughts, particularly on the storms currently in C PA and also in NW NY? Those storms in PA should miss to the south unless more develop on the way. Storms are expected to be scattered, one of those bring your umbrella in case days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Models are showing the first shot at a 95 degree day this summer in Newark on Sunday. The heat index is going to be high with dews in the low 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Really really dark and storm incoming here in Belle Mead..per radar looks like a sideswiping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 warm front pushing through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Slightly hot in Atlantic City today. wish the craps games were that hot when i go down there. Thunder rumbling oin the distance here in CNJ. Cloudy and 72 Dew upto 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Models are showing the first shot at a 95 degree day this summer in Newark on Sunday. The heat index is going to be high with dews in the low 70's. Like 6/23 have to watch clouds I think this time is more likely, perhaps even to the park. We shall see. <ight have 3 or 4 of next 5 days at 90 in places. Beyond there ridge comes, gets knocked down and goes up again in the longer range. Looks overall warmer than normal thru 7/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 This is probably my worst storm all year in terms of thunder and lightning...go figure the least hyped events always outdo the hyped ones Is this it for today? Im heading up to the Meadowlands for Pace night and dont want to worry about dodging showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Getting dark here. Looks like thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Nino summers are usually cooler any heat will be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Thunder in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 A downpour with some loud thunder is moving across Larchmont-Mamaroneck toward the Long Island Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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