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July 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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Pretty good discussion by Walt Drag/Mt.Holly NWS Office on this weekends heat/thunderstorm potential.

 

HEAT WAVE MAY BEGIN IN PLACES ALONG I-95 SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY. CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS COULD BREAK THIS UP ANY
ONE OF THESE DAYS BUT OVERALL THIS 4 DAY PERIOD LOOKS HOT AND
HUMID WITH SOME CONVECTIVE POTENCY IN A RING OF FIRE PATTERN ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STATES RIDGE ALOFT. BETTER INSTABILITY
TENDS TO BE BANKED UPSTREAM MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EML IS DIFFUSED
BY CONVECTION AS IT DEPARTS THE GREAT LAKES ESEWD BUT STILL WORTH
FOLLOWING FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT HERE. ALSO NOTICING
CAPPING 700MB TEMPS OF 11C TRYING TO HEAD EAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.


SATURDAY...1000J+ MLCAPE MODELED E PA WITH 25-35 KT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR, A DIFFERENTIAL WAA PATTERN IN OVERALL NW FLOW WITH A SW
SURFACE WIND GUSTING 15 MPH MAY YIELD SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS I-95
WESTWARD IN A NW FLOW. NOTING DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF NEARLY
7C/KM WITH REMNANT EML POCKETS SIFTING SEWD INTO OUR AREA.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.


SUNDAY...2200J+ ML CAPE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR TO SPEAK OF. LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC WIND WITH GENERAL NW FLOW
ALOFT. MID LVL INSTABILITY CONTINUES SIGNIFICANT. COULD BE ONE OF
THOSE BIG CAPE DAYS DRIVING SVR WX PRODUCTION. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

MONDAY...1500+J ML CAPE MOST OF THE AREA. DIFFERENTIAL WAA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR UNDER 25 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...PROBABLY STILL HOT AND HUMID AHEAD OF WHATEVER TROUGH
DEVELOPS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CFP COULD GENERATE STRONG
TSTMS? CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

 
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Pretty good discussion by Walt Drag/Mt.Holly NWS Office on this weekends heat/thunderstorm potential.

 

HEAT WAVE MAY BEGIN IN PLACES ALONG I-95 SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH

TUESDAY. CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS COULD BREAK THIS UP ANY

ONE OF THESE DAYS BUT OVERALL THIS 4 DAY PERIOD LOOKS HOT AND

HUMID WITH SOME CONVECTIVE POTENCY IN A RING OF FIRE PATTERN ALONG

THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN STATES RIDGE ALOFT. BETTER INSTABILITY

TENDS TO BE BANKED UPSTREAM MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EML IS DIFFUSED

BY CONVECTION AS IT DEPARTS THE GREAT LAKES ESEWD BUT STILL WORTH

FOLLOWING FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT HERE. ALSO NOTICING

CAPPING 700MB TEMPS OF 11C TRYING TO HEAD EAST LATE IN THE

WEEKEND.

SATURDAY...1000J+ MLCAPE MODELED E PA WITH 25-35 KT 0-6KM BULK

SHEAR, A DIFFERENTIAL WAA PATTERN IN OVERALL NW FLOW WITH A SW

SURFACE WIND GUSTING 15 MPH MAY YIELD SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS I-95

WESTWARD IN A NW FLOW. NOTING DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF NEARLY

7C/KM WITH REMNANT EML POCKETS SIFTING SEWD INTO OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...2200J+ ML CAPE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO 0-6KM BULK

SHEAR TO SPEAK OF. LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC WIND WITH GENERAL NW FLOW

ALOFT. MID LVL INSTABILITY CONTINUES SIGNIFICANT. COULD BE ONE OF

THOSE BIG CAPE DAYS DRIVING SVR WX PRODUCTION. CONFIDENCE:

AVERAGE.

MONDAY...1500+J ML CAPE MOST OF THE AREA. DIFFERENTIAL WAA. 0-6KM

BULK SHEAR UNDER 25 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...PROBABLY STILL HOT AND HUMID AHEAD OF WHATEVER TROUGH

DEVELOPS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CFP COULD GENERATE STRONG

TSTMS? CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

 

Hopefully something pops soon imby. Only one decent storm all year.

Sorta another uneventful summer. Not much rain either.

Really don't mind it, but would it be nice to track a decent line of storms at some point.

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Hopefully something pops soon imby. Only one decent storm all year.

Sorta another uneventful summer. Not much rain either.

Really don't mind it, but would it be nice to track a decent line of storms at some point.

 

Check out the dry spot right over your house lol..

 

Meanwhile its approaching 4" above normal since mid may up here just north of you

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Even after all this dry talk, we've still managed to make most if not all of it up and then some. Those few dry spots are just really bad luck though but I don't think they'll last either with that raging Nino expected.

Yep.  Raining every few days up this way.   Everything remains green and lush

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Only the 5th time since 1985 that Newark hasn't reached 95 degrees by July 15th.


 


other years and total 95 degree days for season


 


2009...1


1998...1


1996...2


1985...2


 


The high minimum of 77 this month so far was more impressive than the monthly high of 91.


77 is +9 For a minimum and 91 is +5 for a maximum. Newark is +0.3 for the month.


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Check out the dry spot right over your house lol..

 

Meanwhile its approaching 4" above normal since mid may up here just north of you

 

Thanks for the graphic.

Validates my point of the lack of rain this spring/summer in my area.

No skin off my back as the weekends have been decent for getting outside.

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