July 2015 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Western contest annual updates Jan - July 2015

 

 

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA__ TOTAL __ (all 9 in brackets) = ranks __ best scores (west)

 

Isotherm _______________ 454_405_518 ____1377 ______ (3961) = 1 ________ 1 0 2 __ JUN, JUL

Midlo Snow Maker ________328_411_539____1278 ______ (3631) = 3 ________ 1 1 2 __ JAN

Donsutherland.1 _________ 358_380_408____1146 ______ (3647) = 2 _________0 0 0

Roger Smith ____________ 300_281_476 ____1057 ______ (2970) =13 ________0 1 1

Mallow _________________266_362_424____1052 ______ (3380) = 6 ________ 0 1 0

wxdude64 ______________ 444_331_277____1052 ______ (3564) = 5 ________ 1 1 0

Damage in Tolland _______ 326_359_365____1050 ______ (3583) = 4 ________ 0 1 0 

..

Consensus ______________326_290_312 ____ 928______ (3460) =6 _________ 2 0 0

..

Tom ___________________292_330_265 ____ 888 ______ (3314) = 8

RodneyS _______________ 332_275_273 ____ 880 ______ (3334) = 7 _________2 0 0

wxallannj _______________ 292_236_315 ____ 843 ______ (3280) = 9

..

Normal _________________340_290_174 ____ 804 ______ (2890) =16 ________ 0 1 0

..

Maxim*_________________ 202_281_320 ____ 803 ______ (2825) =17

Absolute Humidity *________260_296_245 ____ 801 ______ (3167) =10

SD ____________________ 290_274_199 ____ 763 ______ (2766) =18 ________ 1 0 0 __ APR

blazess556 ______________208_232_284 ____ 724 ______ (3007) =12 ________ 0 0 1

Stebo __________________ 206_224_249 ____ 679 ______ (2859) =16 ________ 1 1 0 __ MAY

Rjay ___________________ 208_208_219 ____ 635 ______ (2933) =14 ________ 0 0 1

ksammut ________________226_153_244 ____ 623 ______ (3012) =11

 

hudsonvalley21*__________ 237_249_124 ____ 610 ______ (2509) =20

N. of Pike**______________217_191_200 ____ 608 ______ (1595) =21

BKViking ________________145_184_203 ____ 532 ______ (2902) =15

mikehobbyst***** _________ 138_139_137 ____ 414 _______ (830) =23 ________ 1 1 0 __ FEB,MAR

dmillz25***** _____________ 62 _112 _ 78 ____ 252 ______ (1024) =22

H2OTown_Wx******________70 _ 50 _ 76 ____ 196 _______ (366) =29

Quixotic.1****** ___________ 52 _ 72 _ 57 ____ 181 _______ (586) =25

Carvers Gap******_________ 94 _ 31 _ 47 ____ 172 _______ (556) =26 _________ 1 0 0

metalicwx366 ******________ 00 _ 72 _ 56 ____ 128 _______ (590) =24

Uncle W ******____________ 26 _ 46 _ 18 _____ 90 _______ (130) =30

SACRUS******____________ 04 _ 24 _ 48 _____ 76 _______ (392) =28

Weatherguy701******_______00 _ 08 _ 30 _____ 38 _______ (399) =27

hockeyinc******___________ 00 _ 16 _ 08 _____ 24 ________ (80) =31

 

(not entered in western)

 

Tenman Johnson __________________________________ (2522) =19

 

=======================================================

 

* to ****** have missed one to six months

[Roger Smith]

Extreme forecast table updated January - July 2015

 

 

From January to July these months and forecasts have qualified for an extreme forecast decision. 2nd extreme is only cited where it can win under these rules. No entry there means that an extreme forecast has won the month. This was shown last year as an "A" type win and the others were shown as "B" -- this year I am changing the format but not the actual rules. To qualify, either the extreme forecast of same anomaly sign as actual, or second most extreme, must win high score (or tie). When second most extreme wins, the extreme value is assigned a loss in this table.

 

 

Month ________ Location ___ Anomaly ____ Extreme forecast ____ 2nd extreme ___ W-L decision

 

Jan 2015 _______ NYC _____ -2.7 ______ -3.5 Roger Smith ___ -2.7 Tenman ___ (L) RS _ (W) TJ

Jan 2015 _______ BOS _____ -2.9 ______ -3.3 Roger Smith ___ -2.7 TJ, met ___ (L) RS (W) TJ,m

Jan 2015 _______ IAH _____ -3.3 _______-5.9 Rodney S _____ -2.7 Tenman ___ (L) Rod (W) TJ

Jan 2015 _______ DEN _____+3.2 ______+2.9 Midlo ________ (+2.5) ________ (W) Midlo

Jan 2015 _______ PHX _____ +2.2 ______+2.8 Midlo ________ +2.0 Damage __ (L) Mid (W) Dam

Jan 2015 _______ SEA _____ +3.1 ______ +2.9 Midlo ________ (+2.4) ________(W) Midlo

Feb 2015 _______ DCA _____ -8.7 ______ -3.7 Mikehobbyst ____ (-3.5) ________(W) Mikehobbyst

Feb 2015 _______ NYC _____-11.4 ______ -5.3 Mikehobbyst ____ (-4.3) ________(W) Mikehobbyst

Feb 2015 _______ BOS _____-12.7 ______ -5.9 Mikehobbyst ____ (-5.2) ________(W) Mikehobbyst

Feb 2015 _______ ORD ____ -13.1 ______ -4.5 Roger Smith ____ (-3.0) ________ (W) Roger

Feb 2015 _______ ATL _____ -6.8 _______-3.1 Tenman Johnson _(-2.0) ________ (W) Tenman

Feb 2015 _______ IAH _____ -3.8 _______-2.2 Tenman Johnson _(-2.1) ________ (W) Tenman

Feb 2015 _______ PHX _____ +5.9 ______ +4.9 Mikehobbyst ____(+4.7) ________(W) Mikehobbyst

Feb 2015 _______ SEA _____ +5.3 ______ +4.5 Roger Smith ____(+3.9) ________(W) Roger

Mar 2015 _______ NYC _____ -4.4 _______-6.3 Mikehobbyst ____-4.6 Abs Hum __ (L) Mike (W) Abs Hum

Mar 2015 _______ BOS _____ -5.1 _______-8.9 Mikehobbyst ____ -5.1 Abs Hum _ (L) Mike (W) Abs Hum

Mar 2015 _______ ATL _____ +3.3 _______+2.7 Roger _________ (+2.1) _______ (W) Roger

Mar 2015 _______ DEN _____ +4.6 _______+3.0 Mikehobbyst ___ (+2.1) ________(W) Mike

Mar 2015 _______ PHX _____ +7.0 _______+4.0 Roger ________ (+3.6) ________(W) Roger

Mar 2015 _______ SEA _____ +4.0 _______+3.3 Blazes ________(+3.3, 5% pen) _(W) Blazes

Apr 2015 _______ ATL _____ +3.7 _______+3.9 Damage _____+3.5 (three) __ (W) Damage, Midlo, Maxim, TJ

Apr 2015 _______ IAH _____ +2.9 _______+2.6 Midlo _________ (+2.5) _______ (W) Midlo

Apr 2015 _______ SEA _____ +1.1 _______ +1.1 Rjay __________ (+1.0) _______ (W) Rjay

May 2015 ______ DCA _____ +7.2 _______ +3.4 Midlo _________ (+3.3) ________(W) Midlo

May 2015 ______ NYC _____ +6.1 _______ +3.0 Rjay __________ (+2.9) _______ (W) Rjay

May 2015 ______ BOS _____ +4.4 _______ +3.0 Rjay __________ (+2.9) _______ (W) Rjay

May 2015 ______ ATL _____ +3.0 _______ +2.9 Midlo _________ (+2.7) _______ (W) Midlo

May 2015 ______ DEN _____ -4.1 ________-2.0 Stebo _________ (-1.5) ________ (W) Stebo

May 2015 ______ PHX _____ -3.4 ________ -0.8 Stebo _________ (-0.5) ________(W) Stebo

May 2015 ______ SEA _____ +3.1 ________+2.1 Isotherm ______ (+1.7) _______ (W) Isotherm

June 2015 ______NYC _____ -0.2 ________ --1.4 ksammut ____ +0.1 RodneyS  ___(W) Rod (L) k

June 2015 ______BOS _____ --3.0 ________--2.3 ksammut ______ (--0.1) _______(W) ksammut

June 2015 ______ORD _____--1.6 _______ --2.1 wxdude64 ____ --1.9 ks, Tom ___ (W) ks,Tom (L) wxd

June 2015 ______ATL _____ +2.3 ________ +3.5 Roger ______+2.3 Rjay,damage__(W) RJ,Dam (L) Rog

June 2015 ______DEN _____ +2.1 _______ +2.3 wxdude64 __ +2.2 RodneyS *___ (W) Rod (L) wxd

June 2015 ______PHX _____ +3.2 _______ +2.8 Mallow _______ (+2.1) ________ (W) Mallow

June 2015 ______SEA _____ +6.8 ________ +3.7 Isotherm ______ (+3.5) _______ (W) Isotherm

July 2015 ______ NYC _____ +2.3 ________ +0.9 Rjay __________(+0.8) _______ (W) Rjay

July 2015 ______ IAH _____ +1.7 ________ +2.0 Rjay ______ +1.7 TJ, dmillz25 __ (W) TJ,dm (L) Rjay

July 2015 ______ DEN _____--1.4 ________ --2.2 DonS _________--1.1 Isotherm _ (W) Iso (L) DS

July 2015 ______ PHX _____ --0.1 ________--0.7 RodneyS _____ +0.2 wxdude64 _ (W) wxd (L) RodS

July 2015 ______ SEA _____ +5.5 ________ +5.5 Midlo ________ (+5.0) ________ (W) Midlo

 

__________________________________________________________________

 

Note: 42 out of 63 possible cases have qualified for this table. DCA just missed in April, fourth/fifth most extreme forecasts were best. May romped all over our forecasts in all but ORD and IAH. DCA just missed in June when it fell to +2.9. July was unusual in that three of the five entries saw the extreme forecast with "loss" status, and two of them were very small anomalies when compared to many of those that make this list. Normal would qualify for PHX in July.

 

* SD also qualifies for a win here with +2.0 tying for high score (DEN in June 2015).

 

Tenman Johnson _____ 7-0

Midlo Snow Maker ____ 7-1

Mikehobbyst _________5-2

Rjay _______________ 5-1

Roger Smith _________4-3

Damage in Tolland ____3-0

Isotherm ____________3-0

Absolute Humidity ____ 2-0

Stebo ______________ 2-0

ksammut ____________2-1

RodneyS ____________ 2-2

metalicwx366 ________ 1-0

blazess556 __________ 1-0

Maxim ______________1-0

Mallow _____________ 1-0

Tom _______________ 1-0

SD _________________1-0

dmillz25 ____________ 1-0

wxdude64 ___________1-2

Donsutherland.1 ______ 0-1

 

Note that SEA has qualified every month so far, on two occasions one of us has matched the number, otherwise we have always fallen short and by an average over seven cases of 0.8 deg (1.2 for the five that went that way).

 

The search continues for anybody who can over-predict SEA warmth in 2015.