Ian Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 The problem is that when we have the *risk* for clouds and junk around we tend to maximize the junk rather than the instability. All eyes are going to be on the rain tomorrow morning for sure. I'm having issues with that July 1997 date you mentioned. Do you have a link to a write up for that or a map? LWX didn't seem to have anything on their site. I dunno why I typed 1997.. triple tasking. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/tornadoes/JUL27-94.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Both June 1 2012 and July 27 1997 on list.. top two tornado days in MD. Idk if you saw but August 6, 1993 (perhaps the most infamous Virginia tornado day) is also on it. You rarely see that high of a concentration of Mid Atlantic tornadoes with any analog set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 Idk if you saw but August 6, 1993 (perhaps the most infamous Virginia tornado day) is also on it. You rarely see that high of a concentration of Mid Atlantic tornadoes with any analog set. No didn't notice but makes sense. The other two stuck out have looked at Md records more for some reason.It is quite solid. I'd imagine some spot in the region will do 'well'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 No didn't notice but makes sense. The other two stuck out have looked at Md records more for some reason. It is quite solid. I'd imagine some spot in the region will do 'well'. I'd like to know how much CAPE was involved in that setup since I was looking at NARR and it appears that the mid levels (at least at 700 mb) were quite moist for that event, suggesting the lapse rates weren't exactly stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 LWX afternoon discussion update should be interesting to read. Going to be a tough forecast for the borderline areas. Also - good tool for svr weenies http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/envbrowser/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I may sacrifice a goat or something tonight so that the warm front comes north enough that I dont miss out on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I may sacrifice a goat or something tonight so that the warm front comes north enough that I dont miss out on the action. Won't be hard to find one in your neck of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I'll most likely be heading out towards C VA tomorrow if things continue to look like they do now. One of the better setups I've seen locally for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Won't be hard to find one in your neck of the woods was just telling Andy how I needed one to cut the grass for me. So maybe Ill pick up two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I just know that waiting on fronts to clear is a heart-breaker in this area usually in the winter - hoping it isn't the same in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 New NAM not really in the right direction. Wonder if the 500 low is ending up just a bit too slow/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I think you may be right. You can see it in the morning precip which is really shifted to the northwest now. Warm front doesn't get a good push north, and the cold front is way back west at 00z. New NAM not really in the right direction. Wonder if the 500 low is ending up just a bit too slow/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 New NAM not really in the right direction. Wonder if the 500 low is ending up just a bit too slow/west. Yeah looks meh. Seems like SW (drying) winds could mitigate any developing instability in the warm sector ( such that it is) tomorrow afternoon. I expect a fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 If the 18z Nam is right I don't make 70F tomorrow. It is a good 3 degrees colder than 12z which means a lot less CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Let's hope it's wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 New NAM not really in the right direction. Wonder if the 500 low is ending up just a bit too slow/west. #2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 Let's hope it's wrong... Well it lags the Euro and the GFS by a decent bit and they are very close and in a better spot. I'd often tend to weight the NAM in this range but you'd think they would handle the 500 low position better overall. If NAM was faster it would help draw things north better. I'd be tempted to wait out the 0z NAM at least before making any grand conclusions about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 #2015 #MidAtlantic was the original #2015 Events here are usually messy and tricky... too soon to bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I am mainly expecting a dreary, overcast day with multiple bursts of mod/heavy rain on a coolish E,NE wind tomorrow. I only made it to 75 for the high today.....Mapgirl prepare for a dank, dark drenching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I am mainly expecting a dreary, overcast day with multiple bursts of mod/heavy rain on a coolish E,NE wind tomorrow. I only made it to 75 for the high today.....Mapgirl prepare for a dank, dark drenching. Yeah, I am. It's okay, will make the most if it. Told the family to bring dominos and card games. Will move the grill under the canopy so we can still have burgers, and beer, there will be beer. Not gonna let a deluge ruin my birthday fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 21z SREF on the SPC site looks okay - obviously again best risk south of the Potomac and especially down near places like EZF. No surprises there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 NAM back east a bit with 500 low and such but it also has rain most of the day. CONUS radar suggests that's a possibility heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 NAM back east a bit with 500 low and such but it also has rain most of the day. CONUS radar suggests that's a possibility heh. Yup. And that's probably what will happen. Some of the local LWX models (hehe I know) suggest a lot of rain throughout the day too but still manage to convect in a big way even into Maryland. I don't buy that at all. Let's trend to gametime? woostorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I'm more in the mood for a big rainer. I love a good dark, steady, heavy rain day during summer. It happens less then a thunderstorm day. So I'm rooting for the dark rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I'm more in the mood for a big rainer. I love a good dark, steady, heavy rain day during summer. It happens less then a thunderstorm day. So I'm rooting for the dark rainer. U crazy son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Pretty impressive when 65 and 70 db shows up in NW Bath county, they far enough away from both Blacksburg and Charleston radar for that to RARELY show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Pretty impressive when 65 and 70 db shows up in NW Bath county, they far enough away from both Blacksburg and Charleston radar for that to RARELY show up. The Tstorm over the western Philly suburbs takes the bizarre award for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 The Tstorm over the western Philly suburbs takes the bizarre award for tonight. And it keeps getting stranger, 6" pixels are adjacent to 1" pixels, it doesn't appear to be moving or weakening. Hopefully it moves 1 friggen mile before somebody breaks 10" on a 10% chance of a shower forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Sure is a lot of green and yellow on radar lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 So enh today and not last Sat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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