Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 ugh, not what i wanted to hear. while i knew the WF would have issues getting north, was hoping it would make it further north than that and my entire day wouldn't be a washout. oh well. It seems that even I may have issues down closer to DC. Here's to hoping the front doesn't give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 Anyone want to chase (and pick me up) tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Anyone want to chase (and pick me up) tomorrow? I would if I wasn't in PA I'm always too lazy to get my butt out of the house to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I read that statement as "Tomorrow ain't DC's day." Efz has a lot more potential and isn't that bad of a drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 I read that statement as "Tomorrow ain't DC's day." I wouldn't say that yet though it could be close.. but might need to play it close if you want warm front action (which is always a little questionable in these parts). I'd have liked to see the NAM come further north with instability at this point but still time. Either way, waiting in one spot for a tornado to come to you is a tough one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 1730 out... slight risk to Mason - Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Efz has a lot more potential and isn't that bad of a drive. EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Whoever was the one to make this thread yesterday was a genius. just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Heh, 12z GFS brings 1750 SBCAPE into DC tomorrow afternoon. That'd probably work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Heh, 12z GFS brings 1750 SBCAPE into DC tomorrow afternoon. That'd probably work. How sharp does the cutoff seem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 How sharp does the cutoff seem? Pretty sharp considering the GFS's resolution. N MD is at or under 1000 SBCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I'm a little surprised by how meh the SPC Day 2 continues to be. I realize that there are plenty of ways for this to not be a major event, and I'm not even sure that higher probs than 15 are justified at this time. That said, I would expect at least a mention that the progged low-level shear is very strong (NAM has 0-1 km helicity greater than 150 in areas that will likely be in the warm sector), and that some significant events are possible if instability ends up on the higher end. All that is mentioned now is transient supercell structures and a couple of brief tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Pretty sharp considering the GFS's resolution. N MD is at or under 1000 SBCAPE. Seems fine for MBY - if 1000 CAPE gets to NMD I should be fine just north of DC. Mapgirl might want to come south though :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Still think the Rte 17 corridor isn't a bad play. Countryside w minimal traffic...esp compared to the 95 and 1 corridors. Of course, one could just hang out in LA Plata and be fine, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I'm so tempted to cut my trip short and head into Virginia tomorrow. So favorable so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Still think the Rte 17 corridor isn't a bad play. Countryside w minimal traffic...esp compared to the 95 and 1 corridors. Of course, one could just hang out in LA Plata and be fine, too. Rt 301 Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 12z GFS for KDCA @18z tomorrow; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Rt 301 Book it. Yeah, 301 isn't bad either once youre south of waldorf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 All/many of our 10%+ tor risk days tend to have that negatively tilted risk area shape from SPC. Usually our positive tilt risk days where the risk is aligned SW to NE are wind/hail days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 CIPS came on board: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/impactguide.php?reg=MV&model=NAM212&fhr=F036&rundt=2015062612 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 CIPS came on board: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/impactguide.php?reg=MV&model=NAM212&fhr=F036&rundt=2015062612 Little bullseye on the wind probs on that too between DC and BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Seems fine for MBY - if 1000 CAPE gets to NMD I should be fine just north of DC. Mapgirl might want to come south though :\ sigh, i wish i could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 sigh, i wish i could Just have to hope the warm front gets up to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I'm a little surprised by how meh the SPC Day 2 continues to be. I realize that there are plenty of ways for this to not be a major event, and I'm not even sure that higher probs than 15 are justified at this time. That said, I would expect at least a mention that the progged low-level shear is very strong (NAM has 0-1 km helicity greater than 150 in areas that will likely be in the warm sector), and that some significant events are possible if instability ends up on the higher end. All that is mentioned now is transient supercell structures and a couple of brief tornadoes. Yeah, I'm a bit surprised as well. Having come from Georgia/Alabama, where we excelled at high shear/low CAPE events, this could be one of those times where a spiny gets going along the warm front. I can't tell you how many times we had to deal with quick-spin ups along a slowly progressing warm front in a moisture-rich environment. If we can get a bit more CAPE, which the RPM (WSI's model) has east of the Blue Ridge and South of Fredericksburg getting into 2-3000 range tomorrow afternoon. The reason why? This: All that to go along with the NAM and other hi-res models and I'd put the best risk from Fredericksbug to CHO to Danville and points east to the coast under the best threat for something to get nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 CIPS came on board: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/impactguide.php?reg=MV&model=NAM212&fhr=F036&rundt=2015062612 Both June 1 2012 and July 27 1997 on list.. top two tornado days in MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 I tend to still think we'll have an easier time getting instability north tomorrow than yesterday in particular. The trough/low is quite strong especially for this time of year. It'll probably come down to how much rain/clouds/junk is around more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I think you mean 1994 for the 7/27 event?? Both June 1 2012 and July 27 1997 on list.. top two tornado days in MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I tend to still think we'll have an easier time getting instability north tomorrow than yesterday in particular. The trough/low is quite strong especially for this time of year. It'll probably come down to how much rain/clouds/junk is around more than anything. The problem is that when we have the *risk* for clouds and junk around we tend to maximize the junk rather than the instability. All eyes are going to be on the rain tomorrow morning for sure. I'm having issues with that July 1997 date you mentioned. Do you have a link to a write up for that or a map? LWX didn't seem to have anything on their site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 I think you mean 1994 for the 7/27 event?? indeed typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 indeed typo. Got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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