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June 25-27 severe and heavy rain


Ian

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Cell southwest of Manassas appears to be trying to be a supercell. Rapid lightning increase lately.. not bad for 9p.

Got svr warned. May have a window to try to produce.
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On mobile, but it looks like it has a nice hail core. Line just west of DC looks good for some solid rain at least.

Yeah probably supercells like to drop hail. Eh, it elongated a bit last scan. Is neat to see.. the idea of a late CAPE push was sort of right it just didn't get into DC and north really. 

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   00z NAM nest shows the ideal setup for Saturday with the heavy rains in the early morning hours, a break in the widespread rain during the late morning and afternoon hours with a chance to destabilize, followed by an intense line (with embedded supercells?) during the late afternoon/early evening.

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NAM look at 500mb and sfc is pretty classic tornado event.. even has a lee low pop and ride the apps. We won't need a ton of instability in this setup.. 1000+ would do. ~1500-2000 prob better. 

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