Ian Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 I was actually thinking the entire 500mb progression was slower than ideal for severe. Speed up the timing a good 6hrs and we'd be solidly in the warm sector by 2-3pm w/ the frontal forcing arriving by 4pm instead of 10pm. Yeah that could be too-- def a better position by 6-9z or so. Though I think as is today would have been OK with some time to build up CAPE. We knew it would be a struggle by the end...it sort of played out as expected but initially it looked like the first line would try to hold off a little later. But with no cap and high moisture content maybe not. This area is tough to fully figure out.. plenty of messy setups "go big".. this one kind of underperformed overall on svr not just on tor risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Think they pulled the flood warnings too fast? I would have been careful about prematurely pulling them after what we saw with the earlier burst of rain They never gave us a flash flood watch or warning IMBY, which boggles my mind, but whatever. I hope I'm done with rain for the night but I'm probably not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Yeah that could be too-- def a better position by 6-9z or so. Though I think as is today would have been OK with some time to build up CAPE. We knew it would be a struggle by the end...it sort of played out as expected but initially it looked like the first line would try to hold off a little later. But with no cap and high moisture content maybe not. This area is tough to fully figure out.. plenty of messy setups "go big".. this one kind of underperformed overall on svr not just on tor risk. Was there any model actually showing substantial CAPE building past DC at all? IIRC things went as modeled. There seemed to be a lot of faith in the ability of the warm front progression to defy models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 getting raked again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Was there any model actually showing substantial CAPE building past DC at all? IIRC things went as modeled. There seemed to be a lot of faith in the ability of the warm front progression to defy models. Other then some of the later NAM runs, I thought models were atleast bringing the front further north/faster and allowing atleast a decent amount of instability in and around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Through 9:01 DCA - 2.63" for day, 11.81" for month to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 4.14 after the last deluge. 12.04 for the month. Sump pump which never goes on has for the first time since the home was built 4 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 Was there any model actually showing substantial CAPE building past DC at all? IIRC things went as modeled. There seemed to be a lot of faith in the ability of the warm front progression to defy models.Don't think many around here were expecting it to get much past DC. Plenty of runs built it up into western burbs tho too. With the heavy rainers blossoming late morning that idea seemed pretty much shot though. Overall I think everything was still a touch south of modeling. Warm fonts very often progress north slower than expected. Shear was pretty good thought we would keep storm spacing longer in the better air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 3.95" and climbing. I've had enough rain for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 3.95" and climbing. I've had enough rain for today I could go 7-10 days without another drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Looks like something touched down in St. Marys/Charles County based off the number of LSRs coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Man those storms left DC and went poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Reported to be teenagers riding a canoe or kayak over the dam which flipped. Neither a canoe nor kayak is sufficient for 9 occupants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Neither a canoe nor kayak is sufficient for 9 occupants Article from Frederick News Post: LINK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 HRRR wants to bring yet ANOTHER surge of heavy rain through DC and up the saturated I-95 corridor in a couple of hours, and radar trends seem to support this idea, with a growing area of heavy showers to the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 HRRR wants to bring yet ANOTHER surge of heavy rain through DC and up the saturated I-95 corridor in a couple of hours, and radar trends seem to support this idea, with a growing area of heavy showers to the southwest sweet...radar looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Last band was underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 2.23" storm total. 6.55" for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I think it's safe to say that the HURRRRR overdid the precip a bit on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I think it's safe to say that the HURRRRR overdid the precip a bit on this. And we thank them for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 4.27" yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 12.22" for the month. Does LWX ever put out monthly precip maps for the region? I'd love to see one for this month. If not, we should all get mapgirl to make a map like she did with last winter's snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Lake Linganore Dam Water rescue in Frederick County on 6/27/15. Fire / rescue plucked 8 people, 1 fatal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Lake Linganore Dam Water rescue in Frederick County on 6/27/15. Fire / rescue plucked 8 people, 1 fatal. That tragedy did NOT have to happen. They should have never been in that location during such hefty rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Not LWX but... Thanks, that's what I'm looking for. The map is very similar to the Lee remnants map, where you have that needle of precip as the bullseye running north to south, with a sharp cutoff out west and also on the lower eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 The whole event was underwhelming. This summer overall sucks for severe like 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 The whole event was underwhelming. This summer overall sucks for severe like 2013.I agree, but it's not over yet. We have plenty of time to score some destructive weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 1.5" total for yesterday. I think it was the third heaviest rainfall of the month. Looked like it might be a lot worse while it was pouring at about 4:00 pm, but we didn't really get much of anything after that except the occasional heavy shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 1.74" storm total in Oak Hill. 7.65" for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Not LWX but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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