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June 25-27 severe and heavy rain


Ian

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Decent clearing evident on visible satellite in northern VA back west to the Blue Ridge.  6:00 pm - 1:00 am time frame could be really fun.  Nocturnal tornado threats are rare around here though...

Just got a look at the HRRR and a few of the LWX local models - looks like they do develop some stuff but it looks sort of weak. #nowcast ;)

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Yea probably too little to late in the sunshine department but I still have my fingers crossed.

And with good wind field I guess they wouldn't have to be "intense" storms to take on the mini-supercell type of structure. low CAPE high shear can perform if conditions are right. That sun really needs to come out quickly though if we want to boost CAPE a bit. Sun will start to get too low to do a whole lot of good soon. 

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And with good wind field I guess they wouldn't have to be "intense" storms to take on the mini-supercell type of structure. low CAPE high shear can perform if conditions are right. That sun really needs to come out quickly though if we want to boost CAPE a bit. Sun will start to get too low to do a whole lot of good soon. 

South of I-70 might be okay, but SW of IAD is definitely in a better spot.

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Updated:

SBCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN PORTIONS OF

THE CWA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INCREASING

ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO

CNTRL MD AND N-CNTRL VA. CURRENT THOUGHT IS SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT

WILL EXPAND NORTH TO CNTRL MD.

.70" rain and 67F, high 69

Same rain total here, but I had a midnight high of 72.2F :(
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I swear people don't know how to drive in the rain..I270S is a f**king parking lot.

 

I got passed by a guy doing about 55 in a 35 on a small double center line road around a curve, then watched him pass another car on the shoulder before the next curve, only to see him spun out with a flat tire up around the next clearing.

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