Ian Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 4k NAM is mostly south of DC if you're zoomed in. Recovery is progressing quite slowly so far. Saturday is a pretty classic setup for tornadoes if we can destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 SPC says this afternoon looks good per 1630 disco... still 5/15/15 ..MID-ATLANTIC AREA THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE IN THIS REGION AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS OCCURRING AND MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE THROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THIS REGION WITH STRONGER SHEAR /35-45 KT/ EXPECTED OVER VA AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR...THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO WRN VA THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER A PORTION OF VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 12z run of the local model from LWX (the 4KM WRF-ARW run) shows DC metro getting a nice cluster of storms around 7-8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Not a fan of the casual language SPC uses after excellent technical discussions. "...a couple tornadoes". Is that a threat for up to 2, more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Sun is out here, winds are more southwesterly now. Currently 83/65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Sitting over at the pool. Kids have it to themselves as we came over with a passing shower. Sun is out now and humidity has started creeping up. Slight breeze and 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 17z mesoanalysis shows that we are already good in the shear department -- 30-40 kts effective along with 35 to 40 kts bulk.... now we await the SBCAPE/MLCAPE to come up some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Starting to see a lot of blue sky here in Downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Don't usually see this in the zones from LWX (re tornadoes): FAIRFAX-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RESTON...HERNDON...ANNANDALE...CENTREVILLE...CHANTILLY...MCLEAN...FRANCONIA130 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015.THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ASLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDSAROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT..TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THENSHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTERMIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BESEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THEEVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Don't usually see this in the zones from LWX (re tornadoes): So these tornadoes are of the 5-10MPH variety? Doesn't seem too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 i'm no mod but maybe we should have a separate thread for today and possibly Saturday. Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 DP's are rising across the area... At 1pm, DCA was 85/59... at 2pm DCA is 85/64... winds are around 10mph from the S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 So these tornadoes are of the 5-10MPH variety? Doesn't seem too bad. Dustdevil warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I'm almost ready to start watching Saturday exclusively. At least for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 17z mesoanalysis shows that we are already good in the shear department -- 30-40 kts effective along with 35 to 40 kts bulk.... now we await the SBCAPE/MLCAPE to come up some 18z mesoanalysis shows that we are still good in the shear department -- 35-45 kts effective along with 40 to 45 kts bulk.... now we wait for the SBCAPE/MLCAPE to come up some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I'll gladly sacrifice today for a solid Saturday. Some nice blue patches now in Gaithersburg, but doubtful it means anything for tonight. 12z EURO says get your boats ready for I-95 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 12z 5KM ARW brings two lines through DC metro... one around 5pm and then a massive line around 9pm ETA: 12z 5KM NMM brings a quite nice looking line across DC metro between 8 and 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 12z 5KM ARW brings two lines through DC metro... one around 5pm and then a massive line around 9pm ETA: 12z 5KM NMM brings a quite nice looking line across DC metro between 8 and 10pm Link...am mobile and would like to view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Link...am mobile and would like to view. 5pm on ARW -- http://www.americanwx.com/wow/model_center/get_orig_img.php?model=hiresearw&run_time=12z&run_hour=9&map=NE¶m=dbz&init=&valid=&ts=20150625 9pm on ARW -- http://www.americanwx.com/wow/model_center/get_orig_img.php?model=hiresearw&run_time=12z&run_hour=13&map=NE¶m=dbz&init=&valid=&ts=20150625 9pm on NMM -- http://www.americanwx.com/wow/model_center/get_orig_img.php?model=hiresenmm&run_time=12z&run_hour=13&map=NE¶m=dbz&init=&valid=&ts=20150625 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 12z NSSL-WRF run also has line at 7pm developing in W VA that comes into the DC Metro around 8/9pm -- http://www.americanwx.com/wow/model_center/get_orig_img.php?model=spcwrf&run_time=12z&run_hour=12&map=NE¶m=dbz&init=&valid=&ts=20150625 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Will be funny if Saturday isn't that wet after all. Especially given that certain mets are already on the flood train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Will be funny if Saturday isn't that wet after all. Especially given that certain mets are already on the flood train. Please oh please oh please. Also, can I personally ask for birthday tornadoes? Can someone give me that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Please oh please oh please. I second this... trying to go to the ballgame Sat night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Please oh please oh please. Also, can I personally ask for birthday tornadoes? Can someone give me that? This is the closest I can offer http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/forces-of-nature/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC321 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR NORTHERN MARYLAND THIS EVENING.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONTWILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BUILD NORTHAS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSUREPASSES BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WITH THELOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSUREWILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIOVALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTH TOWARDNORTHERN VIRGINIA.THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR NORTHERN MARYLAND AREA LATETHIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARYWILL USHER IN MUCH MORE MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THEUPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FORINSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS THEREMNANTS FROM AN MCS EARLIER TODAY...WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGHOUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERSAND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURINGTHIS TIME. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITHDAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.CERTAINTY IS STILL A BIT LOW DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUT EXACTLY HOWUNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BERULED OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRALVIRGINIA INTO THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA AS WELL AS THEVIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCEIS HIGHEST FOR MORE INSTABILITY DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.ALSO...WITH THE BOUNDARY OVERHEAD THERE IS A THREAT FOR ANISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Re Saturday threat from LWX disco: LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IS DRIFTS NORTHEAST FROM OHIOSATURDAY MORNING...REACHING LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINIS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTSNORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOWSATURDAY WITH LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 5-10 AND PWATS WILL BE AROUNDTWO INCHES. PLENTY OF DYNAMICS FROM THE LOW TO THE NW. THEREFORE ASEVERE...TORNADO...AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS FOR THE DAY INTOTHE EVENING. MAX TEMPS DEPEND ON TEMPERATURE ADVECTION VS CLOUDS ANDRAIN. CURRENTLY THINKING LOW TO MID 70S NWRN HALF OF THE CWA AND UPR 70S LOW 80S SERN HALF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Hmmm....Saturday might not be a bad day to hit the northern neck and just hang out along Rte 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 This is the closest I can offer http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/forces-of-nature/ Thanks! ️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0242 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN VIRGINIA...EXTREME NRN NCCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 251942Z - 252115ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATHREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO ORTWO. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT THISEVENING AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE.DISCUSSION...STORM INITIATION HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS SERN VANEAR A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RICH MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING HASCONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPEOF 1500-2000 J/KG IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY PERRECENT MESOANALYSIS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT THEPOTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY...WITHAN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. WHILELOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDPROFILES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILLALSO RESULT IN A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUPERCELLSTHAT CAN BE MAINTAINED.FURTHER WEST...CU HAS BEEN INCREASING ALONG A LEE TROUGH ASLARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED VORTMAX CURRENTLY OVER ERN OH. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLETHIS AFTERNOON IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN INITIATE IN THIS AREA...WITH APRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STRONGERASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...WITH POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH AND ATRANSITION TO AN ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WW ISSUANCE ISPOSSIBLE BEFORE 21Z IF CURRENT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE INCOVERAGE...WITH WW ISSUANCE BECOMING LIKELY BY THIS EVENING INRESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WIND DAMAGE THREAT...DEAN/DIAL.. 06/25/2015ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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