kystormspotter Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 So parts of southern kentucky are under slight risk for today and tomorrow. Hodograph from friday around louisville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Kentucky forecast is complicated Friday, but one could argue for ENH. I'm not saying ENH for tornadoes, but maybe for any wind. Tough to nail down svr wx type Day 2, but I would drop an ENH into Kentucky. Wow the charts above look like UK-Louisville game fireworks, lol! Looks like a warm front reinforced with outflow will be over Kentucky Friday morning. Indications are any morning rain will have departed, but left a boundary. Gradually deepening low press is forecast. While Friday starts out veered at low levels south of the said boundary, slight backing is forecast late Friday - esp right on the boundary. Such a forecast makes sense with deepening low press. Jet stream is strong for the season out of the WNW. Extreme heat and humidity, good theta E, will be noted to the south. Yeah it is pretty hot and humid down here in Tennessee. All that screams high wind in Kentucky. However better backing 850 down to surface would certainly introduce the supercell threat. If you believe the hi-res NAM a complex comes out of Missouri as a big straight line wind maker. NAM does not know what to do with it later in the day. Does it hold together as a bow echo? Does it break up into embedded supercells? All depends on timing of low deepening and low level winds backing. When I say backing I really mean less veered. With WNW flow aloft perhaps SSW downstairs, as opposed to SE, would get spinners. Right now low levels look SW except on/north of boundary. Too close to call. Drop ENH today and tomorrow decide whether wind, tor, or both. Will know more after dawn Friday. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kystormspotter Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 Kentucky forecast is complicated Friday, but one could argue for ENH. I'm not saying ENH for tornadoes, but maybe for any wind. Tough to nail down svr wx type Day 2, but I would drop an ENH into Kentucky. Wow the charts above look like UK-Louisville game fireworks, lol! Looks like a warm front reinforced with outflow will be over Kentucky Friday morning. Indications are any morning rain will have departed, but left a boundary. Gradually deepening low press is forecast. While Friday starts out veered at low levels south of the said boundary, slight backing is forecast late Friday - esp right on the boundary. Such a forecast makes sense with deepening low press. Jet stream is strong for the season out of the WNW. Extreme heat and humidity, good theta E, will be noted to the south. Yeah it is pretty hot and humid down here in Tennessee. All that screams high wind in Kentucky. However better backing 850 down to surface would certainly introduce the supercell threat. If you believe the hi-res NAM a complex comes out of Missouri as a big straight line wind maker. NAM does not know what to do with it later in the day. Does it hold together as a bow echo? Does it break up into embedded supercells? All depends on timing of low deepening and low level winds backing. When I say backing I really mean less veered. With WNW flow aloft perhaps SSW downstairs, as opposed to SE, would get spinners. Right now low levels look SW except on/north of boundary. Too close to call. Drop ENH today and tomorrow decide whether wind, tor, or both. Will know more after dawn Friday. Cheers! Nice write up. NAM continues to increase STP around the louisville area and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...OZARK PLATEAU AND ADJACENT SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND ADJACENT SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. ...SYNOPSIS... FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA APPEARS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. TO THE NORTH OF A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS AND TO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM...MODELS INDICATE THAT A DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE INITIATION OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. INITIALLY SLOW MOVING OR QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY....WHILE PERHAPS ADVANCING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR FROM THE PLATEAU REGION IS BECOMING DISRUPTED...SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LARGE CAPE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DESTABILIZATION...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...AIDED BY FORCING ALONG THE SEA BREEZES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES...ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHING MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG...PARTICULARLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE STALLED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ENHANCED FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO EXTEND IN ROUGH EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MODEL OUTPUT DOES EXHIBIT VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE MORE RAPID FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...WHICH WILL HAVE A CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE STRENGTHENING OF FORCING AND FLOW MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 27/00Z OR LATER. BUT THERE DOES APPEAR CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO CONSOLIDATE AND EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...LIKELY PROPAGATING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE PRECEDED BY DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC... BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH 20-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. OTHERWISE...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STORMS EMERGING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY COULD PERSIST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT. ...OZARK PLATEAU INTO ADJACENT SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... WEST AND SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLVING MID/UPPER TROUGH...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL STILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND AND SOME HAIL...AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..KERR/LEITMAN.. 06/26/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN TO SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360... VALID 262342Z - 270045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS EXIST WITH A CLUSTER PROGRESSING FROM N-CNTRL KY INTO PARTS OF WW 363 AND WITH A SLOWER MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION APPROACHING MIDDLE TN FROM WW 359. MUCH OF WW 360 IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING CANCELLED EARLY PER COORDINATION WITH WFOS. DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVELY-MODIFIED AIR HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF CURRENTLY VALID PORTIONS OF WW 360...WITH ANY REMAINING SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL KY AND OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS IN MIDDLE TN. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER SRN IL/SWRN IND SHOULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE DOWNSTREAM OVERTURNING DESPITE FORCED ASCENT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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