WEATHER53 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 My +2 forecast for June looks good and -1 for July and -2 for August still quite confident about. You can see my summer outlook over in forecasting discussion in Isotherm's winter forecast thread. Went for 30-35 90+, increased tropical activity, and around average rainfall. The dominant temperature scheme from here on out is going to be mid to upper 80's for highs and some occassional 90-95 wont be able to put DC into plus values. Lots of nightime lows in 60's. The influx of -10 values this weekend will obviously not be a common occurrence the rest of the way but it is indicative of what lies ahead. Some of the winter pieces have shown themselves and so far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I'll challenge you on this one. Once the IO subsidence ends, the +PNA ridge should retrograde into the GOA/Aleutian domain, and the SE ridge will probably return. I'm thinking this occurs between July 5th and July 10th. If anything, I suspect July will turn out warmer than average regionwide. Analogous to what we'd expect under a degrading MJO and developing CCKW/high frequency forcing regime, the EPS, NAEFS, bias-corrected GEFS, and GGEM ensembles all retrograde the western ridge into the GOA and bring bring back the heat/SE ridge between the 4th and the 7th of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 There's a notable retrogression signal on the bias-corrected GEFS: Hr240 Hr300 Hr384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Winter's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 90F in June is bullsh**, but 90F in July? Easy peasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Winter's overWhat was your snow total?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Good thing i have 3.5 months of warm weather to look forward to after this long, hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Summer only officially started 4 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Summer only officially started 4 days ago? maybe he is cancelling next years summer. We like to cancel things way in advance around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I'll just take a repeat of last July, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 delete this thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Winter's over Next Summer is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Next Summer is over. I won't be here so meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 What's up, Ian? Are you moving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 What's up, Ian? Are you moving? I don't know for sure but I am considering it. Have a lot to do first if that's the case though.. so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Welcome, fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 My +2 forecast for June looks good and -1 for July and -2 for August still quite confident about. You can see my summer outlook over in forecasting discussion in Isotherm's winter forecast thread. Went for 30-35 90+, increased tropical activity, and around average rainfall. The dominant temperature scheme from here on out is going to be mid to upper 80's for highs and some occassional 90-95 wont be able to put DC into plus values. Lots of nightime lows in 60's. The influx of -10 values this weekend will obviously not be a common occurrence the rest of the way but it is indicative of what lies ahead. Some of the winter pieces have shown themselves and so far so good. I realize that it could be a lot worse, but that sure as heck sounds like summer to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 3, 2015 Author Share Posted July 3, 2015 Below average around -2 since started this. I think that mostly holds up for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 Thats funny, I was just thinking July might end up warmer relative to average than June was. The low-frequency WPAC forcing & coinciding IO subsidence responsible for the eastern troughing is now progressing, and higher frequency forcing should be entering the IO during the 2nd week of July. Analogs point to a strong SE ridge in such a forcing regimen. See below..notice the forcing reversal in the off-equatorial WPAC..that dateline subsidence correlates strongly to eastern ridging: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 It's way out there right now, but the EPS mean is depicting a ridgy pattern during mid-July...clean -PNA/-NAM response to the WPAC reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 I would say DC area has been experiencing a less hot than typical summer. The skewed nightime mins have held temps into + territory but since I created this thread there have only been 3 90+ days with about 13/14 daytime highs at or below average. Once again a projected streak of 90+ is forecasted starting Saturday but I think by the time it gets here it will be more mid to upper 80's and some of these upper 70's low 80's for July highs is unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 July is to boring to be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Worst summer ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I might accept the premise of this thread, but tenman is wrong 110% of the time, plus or minus 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I might accept the premise of this thread, but tenman is wrong 110% of the time, plus or minus 10%.Right for the wrong reasons, or is it wrong for the right reasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 24, 2015 Author Share Posted July 24, 2015 Since I wrote this over a month ago there have been 6 90+ days at DCA, 4 92 or lower. One genuine 2 day heat streak. DCA nightime mins have caused the + values, most stations right around average so pretty much a benign run since the thread started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 24, 2015 Author Share Posted July 24, 2015 One could think that after 10 years some of you would have grown up.. What the hel*, most of you can get married now, you should be happy, the social platform has shifted your way, why still so combative and aggressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Since I wrote this over a month ago there have been 6 90+ days at DCA, 4 92 or lower. One genuine 2 day heat streak. DCA nightime mins have caused the + values, most stations right around average so pretty much a benign run since the thread started. Since when does a warmer-than-average July constitute the end of summer? It looks like we're back into a +2 to +4 pattern starting Sunday/Monday, which should allow the month to finish warmer than average region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Plus tropical action to boot. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2015072412®ion=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 ¿Que?I think he called us homies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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