Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 3200 sfc-based cape and 40 kt of 0-6 km shear? yes, please. Now we just need to do something with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Tempted to meh but it's early and we'll get some storms. Just one? Meh the heat or something at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 If you bump up the dews to mid-70's like some stations are reporting that SBCAPE goes up to 4500+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Clouds have stayed just to my north all day. Environment feels prime for destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 93/76 here. Uncomfy to be outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 93/76 - NASTY! Fuel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm concerned that you are bullish. Event might fail now That's probably a good bet. I'm one heck of a jinx on events. 93/72...that 18z sounding looks sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 95/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sfc is good but some of the best environments you ever see for storms don't do much. Cap definitely has won so far and probably some downsloping in low layers too.. not really a problem thru 3p tho. There's very minimal forcing which is an issue for a higher end event usually. Stuff south of PIT does seem to be getting better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 That's one of the better soundings you'll see for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 That's a whole lotta popcorn to the W/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 We act this way for snow too. Everyone gets antsy watching radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 19z SPC mesoanalysis LI's -8 to -9... LL Lapse Rates around 7.5 C/KM... ML Lapse Rates around 6.5 to 7.0 C/KM... 2500-3000 MLCAPE... 3000 to 3500 SBCAPE... 35 to 40 kts effective shear... 35 to 40 kts bulk shear... left moving sup composite is -4... supercell composite is 4... 1" hail markers in N VA/DC/C MD... derecho composite 6... 40-60 Craven SigSvr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 What time frame are we looking at for DC? Still 6-ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Real surprised they haven't pulled the trigger on a watch...we've gotten stuff in far less. 94/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Nice wind core up in PA on the storm near Shippensburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 We act this way for snow too. Everyone gets antsy watching radar Except if(when) this fails, I just go grab a beer and grill something yummy and its forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 tracking thunderstorms is kinda more fun than tracking snowstorms, maybe because i get to wear shorts and a t-shirt outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Warnings going up all along that PA line. Yea and a tor warning in western md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 404 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN GARRETT COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND... EAST CENTRAL PRESTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 430 PM EDT * AT 404 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TERRA ALTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... OAKLAND AROUND 410 PM EDT. MOUNTAIN LAKE PARK AND DEER PARK AROUND 415 PM EDT. ACCIDENT AROUND 430 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SWALLOW FALLS STATE PARK...MCHENRY...MCCOMAS BEACH...CRELLIN...HUTTON AND DEEP CREEK LAKE STATE PARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Blue Box until 11:00http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0346.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 405 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND NEW JERSEY SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL RISK AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 tracking thunderstorms is kinda more fun than tracking snowstorms, maybe because i get to wear shorts and a t-shirt outside. The cycle of anticipation/expectation/disappointment is much shorter with thunderstorms as well. Hours instead of days. Even if it doesn't get very concussive later on, at least it'll knock back this miserable heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Line looks like it's starting to form...nice tops on some of the cells just crossing into MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Good updraft on the Frederick County, VA cell. Could go severe down the line. Looks like a line ahead of the big line trying to form from around Westminster back to Capon Bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 On the current NWS national map, substitute steel blue for purple and pink for yellow, and you've got what the map would typically look like prior to a MECS/HECS (although the purple/blue would probably extend southwestward down the Apps a bit more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 This looks a lot like 7/25/10 right now, at least radar-wise. That was also a west wind day with mega-CAPE and a line dropping out of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Nice storm developing just NW of Charlestown, WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 thunder rumbling pretty good around here. Looks like some little cells popping ahead of the PA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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