MN Transplant Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 93.1, mid 70s DPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I admit I am a bit surprised there is no MD out for us yet... should be coming soon one would think There's essentially nothing on LWX radar. We've seen days where storms are already well under development in our area before they issue an mesoscale disco. It'll probably be a little while - then again like the others said they could just go with a watch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 16z SPC mesoanalysis -7 to -8 LI's... LL Lapse Rates are between 7.0 and 7.5 C/KM... ML Lapse Rates 6.5 to 7.5 C/KM (7.5 is in C MD/W MD)... ~2500 MLCAPE... 3000-3500 SBCAPE... 35-40 kt effective shear... 30-35 kts bulk shear... 17z SPC mesoabnnalysis LI's -8 to -9... LL Lapse Rates are between 7.0 and 7.5 C/KM... ML Lapse Rates 6.5 to 7.5 C/KM (7.0 C/KM touches DCA, 7.5 in C MD)... 2500-3000 MLCAPE... 3000-3500 SBCAPE... 35 to 40 kts effective shear... 35 to 40 kts bulk shear... left-moving sup composite is -4... supercell composite at 4... 1.5" sig hail in N VA/C MD... 40-60 Craven SigSvr... derecho composite 6 to 8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Special LWX balloon being launched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 94/73 Plenty of juice for the front to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 In the plane with shotty wifi or I would look for me self, what time does it look like storms could be in the area? I'm landing at Dulles in 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Hoping for that 18z balloon. They used to do it super often...not so much anymore. They cost a lot of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Mid level lapse rates still look really good compared to what they usually are. Somebody is going to get some nice hail either here or to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 woo, 7.5 MLLR and 7.0 LLLR for me. No lapse problems today! Now go away clouds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Microburst composite also nice looking on the mesoanalysis maps. Now we wait and hope for something other than showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 60% Watch chance: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/md1136.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 60% Watch chance: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/md1136.html It's a pretty "meh" discussion considering the potential. The "isolated" word always makes me frown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 It's a pretty "meh" discussion considering the potential. The "isolated" word always makes me frown. That's what I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Clouds creeping in from the North. 90 / DP 75 HI 101 ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 In the plane with shotty wifi or I would look for me self, what time does it look like storms could be in the area? I'm landing at Dulles in 3 hours 5-6pm at IAD probably. Could have a sneaky cell out front. Enjoy the view! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 93/73 @ DCA...HX of 105 91/72 @ GAI...HX of 98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looking forward to the usual 20 minutes of flashes, 2 or 3 low rumbles, and about 5 minutes of moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 90/77 at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Convetion in far western MD / PA / OH about to enter a much more favorable environment. Timing looks like 5:00 - 8:00 pm for DC Metro. Even downdraft CAPE and is looking healthy which should promote more efficient transfer of thunderstorm winds to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 3-4000 J/KG of SBCAPE as well as 35-40 kts of shear with the latest mesoscale update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 17z SPC mesoabnnalysis LI's -8 to -9... LL Lapse Rates are between 7.0 and 7.5 C/KM... ML Lapse Rates 6.5 to 7.5 C/KM (7.0 C/KM touches DCA, 7.5 in C MD)... 2500-3000 MLCAPE... 3000-3500 SBCAPE... 35 to 40 kts effective shear... 35 to 40 kts bulk shear... left-moving sup composite is -4... supercell composite at 4... 1.5" sig hail in N VA/C MD... 40-60 Craven SigSvr... derecho composite 6 to 8... 18z SPC mesoanalysis LI's -8 to -10... LL Lapse Rates around 7.5 C/KM... ML Lapse Rates around 7.0 C/KM for DC and ~7.5 C/KM for C MD... 2500-3000 MLCAPE... 3000 to 4000 SBCAPE... 35 to 40 kts effective shear... 35 to 40 kts bulk shear... left moving sup composite is -4... supercell composite is 4... 1.5" hail markers in N VA/DC/C MD... derecho composite 6 to 8... 50-70 Craven SigSvr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looking forward to the usual 20 minutes of flashes, 2 or 3 low rumbles, and about 5 minutes of moderate rain. Bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The metrics are there...all we have to do is kick it off. 92/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The metrics are there...all we have to do is kick it off. 92/72 I'm concerned that you are bullish. Event might fail now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Allright allright allright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looking forward to the usual 20 minutes of flashes, 2 or 3 low rumbles, and about 5 minutes of moderate rain. This pretty much sums up 99.9% of all ST Warnings I've been under as long as I can remember... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 3200 sfc-based cape and 40 kt of 0-6 km shear? yes, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Allright allright allright So, you are saying that you like a -9 LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Tempted to meh but it's early and we'll get some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.