MN Transplant Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 90 here. Maybe 10% under full solar potential right now. Inflated 77 DP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 15z SPC mesoanalysis: -7 to -9 LI's... LL Lapse Rates near 7.0 C/KM... ML Lapse Rates near 7.0 C/KM... 2000-2500 MLCAPE... ~3000 SBCAPE... sig hail is 1.5 in C MD... Derecho Composite is 4-6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Too bad SPC risks are so subjective. Today an ENH and Sat wasn't? Ok.I was thinking the same thing. Ignoring all model data and just looking back at previous tropical remnants/circ events where there is strong s-sw ll flow out in front timed with daylight performs nearly 100% of the time here. I almost expected good training storms with some wind, hail, and random spin ups on Sat. But reading all the official disco for the days leading in made me think I don't know what the heck I'm thinking.Today seems less likely for widespread storm coverage in general. My biggest fear is the big line has too many breaks or weak areas for the majority of us to see at least "decent" action. But I suck at severe wx analysis so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 40kt shear moving south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 91/74 - Nasty hot! Seems like the pump is primed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Give me 6 more degrees region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 15z SPC mesoanalysis: -7 to -9 LI's... LL Lapse Rates near 7.0 C/KM... ML Lapse Rates near 7.0 C/KM... 2000-2500 MLCAPE... ~3000 SBCAPE... sig hail is 1.5 in C MD... Derecho Composite is 4-6... sigh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 sigh.... what? I said near just for that purpose... they are close by on the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 what? I said near just for that purpose... they are close by on the charts close..ish. yes. Clouds have taken over here at work, 87/76 at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 close..ish. yes. Clouds have taken over here at work, 87/76 at home. Boo clouds, woo storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 close..ish. yes. Clouds have taken over here at work, 87/76 at home. Definitely looks cloudy to my north. Hanging onto sunshine here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 what? I said near just for that purpose... they are close by on the charts just say they are improving. trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 deetee is on board Wxrisk.com added 3 new photos. 4 mins · *** ALERT ** RAPID BLOW UP OF STRONG / SEVERE STORMS OVER PA NJ MD DEL far north VA LATE this afternoon evenibg .. POSSIBLE BOW ECHO or DERECHO (progressive derecho if it happens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 15z SPC mesoanalysis: -7 to -9 LI's... LL Lapse Rates near 7.0 C/KM... ML Lapse Rates near 7.0 C/KM... 2000-2500 MLCAPE... ~3000 SBCAPE... sig hail is 1.5 in C MD... Derecho Composite is 4-6... 16z SPC mesoanalysis -7 to -8 LI's... LL Lapse Rates are between 7.0 and 7.5 C/KM... ML Lapse Rates 6.5 to 7.5 C/KM (7.5 is in C MD/W MD)... ~2500 MLCAPE... 3000-3500 SBCAPE... 35-40 kt effective shear... 30-35 kts bulk shear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Hey, great to see you posting. How has life treated you the last few months? Good! Though I'd like the fishing to be better. I don't post much in summer. I'm already touching 90 here. The NAM simulated relectivity, Cape and LI forecasts are pretty impressive. I'm also a fan of being near the southern edge of the westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Legit bow echo in central PA. I know it's not directly affecting this subforum, but it's good to see these storms being able to sustain themselves right after initiation and put down some good storm reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wonder if they'll Upgrade. Kinda late for 1630 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wonder if they'll Upgrade. Kinda late for 1630 No upgrade, 1630 SWODY1 just came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 No upgrade, 1630 SWODY1 just came out. No upgrade, 1630 SWODY1 just came out. Still same 2/15/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wonder if they'll Upgrade. Kinda late for 1630 Usually if it's going to a mod you'll see a mesoscale discussion before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sun watch 2015: Hazy sun holding amid clouds in downtown Baltimore. Confirm: HOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Usually if it's going to a mod you'll see a mesoscale discussion before. Yup. there's always that <5% chance you get a random last minute upgrade late afternoon if convective trends warrant it but that is incredibly rare. EDIT: $20 says LWX launches a special balloon before a new WW is issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 91/76 HI 103 at DCA... ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yup. there's always that <5% chance you get a random last minute upgrade late afternoon if convective trends warrant it but that is incredibly rare. EDIT: $20 says LWX launches a special balloon before a new WW is issued. Hoping for that 18z balloon. They used to do it super often...not so much anymore. ALso, mesoanalysis SARS hail parameters look pretty darn impressive just to the north of our area in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Hoping for that 18z balloon. They used to do it super often...not so much anymore. ALso, mesoanalysis SARS hail parameters look pretty darn impressive just to the north of our area in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Our storms are starting to fire over the mountains in WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I admit I am a bit surprised there is no MD out for us yet... should be coming soon one would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 I admit I am a bit surprised there is no MD out for us yet... should be coming soon one would think unless they just issue a watch like they did for PA earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 There's our watch to the west of us... URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 343 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN MARYLAND SOUTHEAST OHIO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WEST VIRGINIA * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I admit I am a bit surprised there is no MD out for us yet... should be coming soon one would think My not need one. They could just post a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.