mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 mapgirl, that's moving SE, right? yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Well ok then, all of S PA under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, just issued Well there is already activity there. And sagging south. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Well ok then, all of S PA under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, just issued until 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 342 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1015 AM UNTIL 700 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0342.html Mod/Mod on the hail probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Well there is already activity there. And sagging south. Makes sense. I guess so... I was thinking they would wait another hour or two before issuing a STW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 We don't often see mid level lapse rates like this. Probably why that hail risk is higher than normal up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 We don't often see mid level lapse rates like this. Probably why that hail risk is higher than normal up there. 14z mesoanalysis says we are around 7.0 C/KM for ML Lapse Rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 14z mesoanalysis says we are at 7.0 C/KM for ML Lapse Rates mmmm, 7 contour is NW of DC... so, 6.5. Nice try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 4km NAM looks potent to say the least. RGEM looks meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 mmmm, 7 contour is NW of DC... so, 6.5. Nice try Well and especially so for Yoder since he is in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 RGEM looks meh Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 CAPE is 2500-3000 across most of MD, with CIN on the decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 mmmm, 7 contour is NW of DC... so, 6.5. Nice try I posted it without looking at the map first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 CAPE is 2500-3000 across most of MD, with CIN on the decline. Trying for my job, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 I posted it without looking at the map first suuuuuuuuure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Trying for my job, eh? well i dunno, you just exaggerated on the MLLR value, who knows what you would have said for CAPE, probably 600000000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA TO PORTIONS OF KY/WV/MD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 231428Z - 231630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PA AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OH INTO PORTIONS OF WV/NORTHEAST KY AND FAR WESTERN MD. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THIS REGION. DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INTENSIFY FROM CENTRAL OH INTO WESTERN PA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STEADILY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S F AND A MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH NEAR 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. REGIONAL 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM PITTSBURGH AND WILMINGTON OH REFLECT VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...WITH 50+ KT WINDS EVIDENT AROUND 3 KM AGL PER THE 12Z PITTSBURGH RAOB. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL QUICKLY ERODE INHIBITION...WITH A RELATED INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MULTICELLS MAY BE DOMINANT...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH A SEVERE HAIL RISK ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. ..GUYER/GOSS.. 06/23/2015 ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 About to be surrounded by watches it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Shear looks good too -- 40kt contour running just north of me at the PA/MD line through Carroll, Frederick and over the tip of Loudon back into VA. 30 south of there near DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Shear looks good too -- 40kt contour running just north of me at the PA/MD line through Carroll, Frederick and over the tip of Loudon back into VA. 30 south of there near DC. Derecho looks nice too. Oh, crap...now i done did it. #HeatHype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 It would seem as though we've broken the streak of not being able to juxtapose shear and instability. Huzzah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looks good. Preplanning with Fire Dept and METRO and its hot on the the rails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 We'll get storms, mainly a question of how widespread the big stuff is probably. High clouds spreading in won't help reach the high end potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 We'll get storms, mainly a question of how widespread the big stuff is probably. High clouds spreading in won't help reach the high end potential. yeah, hazy sun here, lots of high clouds around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 We'll get storms, mainly a question of how widespread the big stuff is probably. High clouds spreading in won't help reach the high end potential. We are starting off way better than we usually do. many times we have a cloud deck until noon from some MCS in Ohio moving through. Sun has been out most morning even is filtered a little. June sun angle ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 If we can get the West Virginia cloud debris to clear some that'd be better. 88/74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 12z 4km NAM sounding for KIAD at 21z this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Full sun here. 90/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Full sun Gaithersburg 91/73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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