mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 And go! I expect lots of Yoda copy/pastes, at least one Ian MEH, a WOOSTORMS by Mark, and that guy who gets no rain, to whine some more about not getting any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Derecho or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looks like someone in the area will see severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Anyone want to post a guess for start times? Am hoping it will hold off in Baltimore County until 7 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 First HRRR of the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Anyone want to post a guess for start times? Am hoping it will hold off in Baltimore County until 7 pm. eh... 4-5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 First HRRR of the thread Of course, the HRRR also thinks that it will be 104 before the storms get here, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 11z HRRRRRR brings a nice looking line through the area around 5-6pm Darn you MN for ninjaing me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 hopefully the cloud debris from the stuff in PA stays in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 If we can keep the debris clouds from PA out of here and not mix too much today could be fun. I'm liking any place north of I-66 right now. Best case would be quick development and maybe a categorical upgrade to a MOD risk for damaging winds given the decent bulk shear and PVA just to our northwest. Some of the short term models continue to hint at two distinct robust multi-cell clusters rolling off the mountains and affecting DC western suburbs and Philly. You seem pretty gung-ho on this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 You seem pretty gung-ho on this event shhh, dont jinx it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 You seem pretty gung-ho on this event Not really...a 5 on my Meh Scale. Derecho and June 2006 were an 8. 12z Sounding from IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 SPC 1300 OTLK has us in 2 TOR/15 HAIL/30 WIND... still ENH risk for LWX CWA Relevant disco part for us: ..MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE REGION WILL LIE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW FIELDS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000+ J/KG. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NY/PA MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS PA/NJ SWWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WHERE SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE WITHIN ONE OR MULTIPLE SEWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE BANDS. WHILE DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...SOME SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE REGION WILL LIE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOWFIELDS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE PRESENCEOF A MOIST BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATEINSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000+ J/KG.CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARYASSOCIATED WITH THE NY/PA MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE INSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATELYSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS PA/NJ SWWD INTO THE CNTRLAPPALACHIANS WHERE SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVEWITHIN ONE OR MULTIPLE SEWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE BANDS. WHILE DAMAGINGOUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...SOME SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPSA BRIEF TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Early morning numbers on the SPC Meso analysis page look promising. Mid level lapse rates are decent, shear nice and the cirrus debris from PA looks like it might just stay north of Mason-Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 If this could hold off until 5:45 or so, I'd be thrilled. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Would be more intrigued if we didn't have this crapvection in PA...still concerned it will muddle things up. 84/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 79/73 at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Not sure we'll max to a mod risk - but nice to have an enhanced risk for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Too bad SPC risks are so subjective. Today an ENH and Sat wasn't? Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Not sure we'll max to a mod risk - but nice to have an enhanced risk for once. Agreed, just thinking that is the ceiling for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Still have to produce. I've been under a mod maybe once in my life? We've been under at least two or three since 2012. Of those I remember, only the Derecho day met expectations. Even moderate risk days can fail around here. Usually it's due to instability/lapse rates though, which doesn't appear to be a problem today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 mid 80s already with full sun. it be nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 12z NAM is deciding to go all in for this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Going to be a good day to stay indoors I suppose. Hopefully we get some nice storms later. Looks like we will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sim radar, at the same time, Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Still got some clouds here, but the sun is poking through. Hoping today is better than the disappointing weekend severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 mapgirl, that's moving SE, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 BWI area being rocked around 6pm on the 12z 4km NAM composite radar Rest of the region gets in on the action between 6pm and 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Well ok then, all of S PA under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.