Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'm not convinced the threat in N IL is much less than farther north, so if there's an upgrade I'd think it would include that area. Of course we've sometimes seen the cap be harder to break than guidance suggests so that is something to keep in the back of the mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Yeah put me down for a MDT risk. Not sure on how far south but I'd guess 45% hatched wind, probably 10% hatched tor across WI/MI and could see them going 45% hatched for very large hail too across the western half of the risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'm not convinced the threat in N IL is much less than farther north, so if there's an upgrade I'd think it would include that area. Of course we've sometimes seen the cap be harder to break than guidance suggests so that is something to keep in the back of the mind. Yeah makes sense. Hopefully the cap will break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 In MCD 1107, regarding the severe storms in North Dakota and Montana, they talk about the convection struggling up there--- could be good news MEANWHILE...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NERN MT INTO N-CNTRL NDAPPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SVR INTENSITY ATTM.HOWEVER...RICHER MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NWD ACROSS CNTRL ND...AND THEENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST INTERMITTENT LARGE HAILAND STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IF A DISCRETESUPERCELL CAN EVOLVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Hoping to only have to work 8 hours and get out at 2.30 tomorrow instead of 4.30, would like to watch this event unfold regardless if or when I might see something locally. Hate to miss out on what could be or looks to be a higher end event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Yeah put me down for a MDT risk. Not sure on how far south but I'd guess 45% hatched wind, probably 10% hatched tor across WI/MI and could see them going 45% hatched for very large hail too across the western half of the risk I could see a 15% hatched tor for E WI and Lower MI as it stands now although I'd assume they'll wait until at least 13z for that. The SRH values here are really anomalous for late June. The synoptic setup is really falling into that classic Great Lakes late season event category, with some of the big ones in the past being decent matches particularly in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Yeah put me down for a MDT risk. Not sure on how far south but I'd guess 45% hatched wind, probably 10% hatched tor across WI/MI and could see them going 45% hatched for very large hail too across the western half of the risk Pretty sure the 45% wind and/or 45% hail would go through Nrn IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 In MCD 1107, regarding the severe storms in North Dakota and Montana, they talk about the convection struggling up there--- could be good news Let's hope so. Though typically, the storms out there in the plains don't tend to blow up/organize until the nocturnal LLJ kicks in after sunset. So we still have a few hours to see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Working shift at MDW currently. Dew point was 61 when I arrived at 2pm and now up to 68, could see the moisture surge on radar earlier as that boundary came ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'm not convinced the threat in N IL is much less than farther north, so if there's an upgrade I'd think it would include that area. Of course we've sometimes seen the cap be harder to break than guidance suggests so that is something to keep in the back of the mind. Yeah, while the better dynamics/shear will be in Michigan (relatively speaking), the better instability/moisture (relatively speaking) will be SW of Lake Michigan (N. Illinois / S. Wisconsin) So it may all balances out as far as where the areas with the highest risk will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Let's hope so. Though typically, the storms out there in the plains don't tend to blow up/organize until the nocturnal LLJ kicks in after sunset. So we still have a few hours to see what happens... they actually talk about the storms in NE MT struggling... Not the severe storms in SE MT which will be the the Ones that will likely form into the Severe MCS later tonight across the ENH area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Yeah, while the better dynamics/shear will be in Michigan (relatively speaking), the better instability/moisture (relatively speaking) will be SW of Lake Michigan (N. Illinois / S. Wisconsin) So it may all balances out as far as where the areas with the highest risk will be. Yeah, overall best places for a conducive environment for severe/tornadic storms will be areas that have the medium of both worlds. That would be S. Wisconsin, N. IL, and Lower Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 Yeah put me down for a MDT risk. Not sure on how far south but I'd guess 45% hatched wind, probably 10% hatched tor across WI/MI and could see them going 45% hatched for very large hail too across the western half of the risk I would agree with this outlook. I can easily see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 Yeah, while the better dynamics/shear will be in Michigan (relatively speaking), the better instability/moisture (relatively speaking) will be SW of Lake Michigan (N. Illinois / S. Wisconsin) So it may all balances out as far as where the areas with the highest risk will be. If I had a choice I would want to be closer to the better dynamics and have the instability be the lacking factor if there is one, versus the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 If I had a choice I would want to be closer to the better dynamics and have the instability be the lacking factor if there is one, versus the other way around. Agreed. The cap is the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 A little late June strong/violent tornado climatology for Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio... I wanted to include the first half of July but I couldn't figure out how to do the dates with search, so I just left it as June 16-30. The reason I didn't do the first half of June is that early June often tends to act more like earlier in the spring in terms of severe setups, imo. Since 1950, over 100 F2-F5 tornadoes in the June 16-30 period, but only 2 F4-F5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Dews up 3 since 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 HRRR has the plains MCS into the area after 12z right around the time the effective warm front retreats through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suckzone Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 im guessing now remind you this is a guess. but I believe the slight or possibly the enhanced will sag more south into indy. we will see in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 HRRR has the plains MCS into the area after 12z right around the time the effective warm front retreats through the area. It also has a bunch of convection in SD valid right now that is currently non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 im guessing now remind you this is a guess. but I believe the slight or possibly the enhanced will sag more south into indy. we will see in time. We don't have the progged winds for tomorrow in our region. However, I see that SPC now has a mesoscale discussion out for nw MO and sw IA for the possibility of a watch as the warm front gets active on the back side of the old MCS. If storms develop and a watch is issued I wonder how this will affect parameters around the Chicago area if the warm front retreats northward overnight. From the 18z NAM it looks like whatever MCS forms in the Dakotas stays way north into WI tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It also has a bunch of convection in SD valid right now that is currently non-existent. SD is an hour or two away from lighting up...anyone acting like tonights MCS won't be prolific is kidding themselves. It may or may not be a monkey wrench in the action tomorrow but it's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 SD is an hour or two away from lighting up...anyone acting like tonights MCS won't be prolific is kidding themselves. It may or may not be a monkey wrench in the action tomorrow but it's going to happen. It's already happening. Instead, it's in North Dakota... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 SD is an hour or two away from lighting up...anyone acting like tonights MCS won't be prolific is kidding themselves. It may or may not be a monkey wrench in the action tomorrow but it's going to happen. Uh, I'm talking about the HRRR having a good handle on things, not that the MCS won't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The parameters across the Plains are just insane. Should be some fun soundings tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Uh, I'm talking about the HRRR having a good handle on things, not that the MCS won't exist. 23Z HRRR has a pretty good handle on the convection across ND attm.. Main questions will be for how it and how long it affects tomorrows threat area for possible afternoon convective chances and how strong the MCS will be in the morning/early afternoon as it moves through. Still lots of Uncertainity about it attm. Let's see how the 00Z models look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 23Z HRRR has a pretty good handle on the convection across ND attm.. Main questions will be for how it and how long it affects tomorrows threat area for possible afternoon convective chances and how strong the MCS will be in the morning/early afternoon as it moves through. Still lots of Uncertainity about it attm. Let's see how the 00Z models look... This is what the 23z HRRR shows for 14z tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Uh, I'm talking about the HRRR having a good handle on things, not that the MCS won't exist. On the other hand... RAP has the MCS riding along the MN/IA border... then taking a turn northeast, leaving almost the entire enhanced risk area untouched. The exception is south Wisconsin... they get brushed by it. Not so sure I buy that. Comparing 23z RAP to the 12z NAM... the CAPE isn't that far off... NAM is "only" ~500 j/kg greater in N IL. The biggest difference is the SRH. NAM has cool season-like SRH values... for N IL, there's 350+ 0-3km, compared to 150-200 0-3km on RAP. Not so sure about that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 On the other hand... RAP has the MCS riding along the MN/IA border... then taking a turn northeast, leaving almost the entire enhanced risk area untouched. The exception is south Wisconsin... they get brushed by it. Not so sure I buy that. Comparing 23z RAP to the 12z NAM... the CAPE isn't that far off... NAM is "only" ~500 j/kg greater in N IL. The biggest difference is the SRH. NAM has cool season-like SRH values... not so sure about that. It's not as complicated as some are making it out to be. Since the MCS has clearly developed and is maturing, as always, it's a question of whether the MCS tracks according to the mid-level flow and corfidi vectors (which will be ENE / NE) or along the instability gradient (which will be anchored from NW to SE). Another option too is that the MCS splits into two pieces. In other words, the stronger storms track into N. Illinois while the stratiform rains track into N. Wisconsin. Meanwhile, there's nothing but an outflow bubble and cloud debris in between. Given the strong flow, once the cold pool develops, there's no question it's going to hauling ass regardless of where it tracks. So I would definitely lean towards an early day arrival on Monday, before peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 This is what the 23z HRRR shows for 14z tomorrow... any other time of year that could be pretty damning... But given that we would still have close to 12 hours of possible daylight and very strong WAA into the area, I wouldn't throw in the towel by any means... That would almost definitely leave some type of OFB over at least N IL and E IA as well to provide a focus point for intiation as well as locally backed winds possibly and definitely further enhance the already impressive low-level wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.