Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 For a refresher, here are the probability/category tables for day 1 and day 2 outlooks. For a day 2 moderate risk, a 45% hatched area is needed. For day 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase.frankel1 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Check link in my modified postThanks. This seems like we could have a 2 rounder.... Maybe just the morning... Obs will be everything. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 He knows the probabilities and what makes a high end event but he is wondering which one of these probabilities (wind or tornado or hail) will be the ones to get the category tomorrow to the moderate risk. I vote all, or at least TOR/Wind. Thinking a combo of 15/45/45 all hatched, maybe not all overlapping though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I vote all, or at least TOR/Wind. Thinking a combo of 15/45/45 all hatched, maybe not all overlapping though I'd agree. I say 45 wind and hail over Nrn IL and Srn Wisco, 15 torn over Srn/Cent. Wisco -- all hatched, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 as mentioned above, NMM takes the MCS from SD and doesn't even get into the far nw LOT CWA until after 18utc, so destabilization may already be underway...the potential for a real long track event is on the table here, to say nothing about how much of the afternoon potential is realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'd agree. I say 45 wind and hail over Nrn IL and Srn Wisco, 15 torn over Srn/Cent. Wisco -- all hatched, of course There's almost certainly going to be 30% hatched hail or so in portions of IL where there's extreme buoyancy and steep mid level lapse rates. I could personally see a 15% hatched tornado risk for portions of Western Michigan and depending on what happens tomorrow AM, we could possibly see a very large area of 45% wind risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 While we're guessing probabilities and stuff, tomorrow really looks legit from a hail perspective. Would not at all be surprised to see multiple cells producing baseball-softball size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 This could be another 6/15 type of event for LOT, exactly one week later. Wouldn't be surprised at training. 80/88 corridor looks ripe again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 While we're guessing probabilities and stuff, tomorrow really looks legit from a hail perspective. Would not at all be surprised to see multiple cells producing baseball-softball size hail. Yeah large CAPE density on the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 The Euro takes the low down to 992mb by 06z Tuesday over Eastern Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Lawrence at APX went full weenie in his AFD regarding tomorrow. It's hard not to feel good about the potential after reading it... 000FXUS63 KAPX 211933AFDAPXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI333 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: INCREASING CONCERN FOR A POSSIBLEWIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OFNORTHERN MICHIGAN. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR TOBE THE MAIN THREATS...AND IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A LONG LIVEDSEVERE WIND EVENT MAY WORK THROUGH SOME AREAS.PATTERN SYNOPSIS: QUITE AN ENERGETIC PATTERN TO START THE WORKWEEK...WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER INTOMONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST AND DEEPENINGTONIGHT...ON THE HEELS OF A 60 KNOT MID LEVEL JET CORE CROSSING THENORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT FEATURE IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE NORTHERN U.S.BORDER INTO MONDAY...DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY EVENINGBEFORE RAPIDLY DEPARTING AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...CLASSICLEE TROUGHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL GET A BOOSTFROM THAT PASSING FEATURE...WITH A MODEST SURFACE RESPONSE EXPECTEDTO ADVANCE FROM NEAR THE NE/SD/IA/MN BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY INTO OURNECK OF THE WOODS BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT GENERAL SETUP WILL RATHERQUICKLY LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ANDHELPING SET THE STAGE FOR OUR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ISSUES. JUST ASQUICKLY AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THEREGION LATE MONDAY EVENING...ALLOWING FOR BROAD WEAK LOW LEVELRIDGING TO ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE WITH QUIET WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK.WELL...LET`S DIG RIGHT INTO IT. THIS SETUP REALLY DOES HAVEPOTENTIAL AND HONESTLY IS ONE OF THE BETTER POTENTIAL SETUPS WE HAVESEEN IN QUITE A FEW YEARS AROUND THESE PARTS. OF COURSE...WITH THATSAID...THERE REMAIN SOME BIG QUESTIONS...SPECIFICALLY REGARDING JUSTHOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT...WHICH WILL HAVE A MAJORIMPACT ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WE CANREALIZE. EVEN WITH THAT SAID...A METEOROLOGIST`S INTEREST IS ALWAYSPIQUED WHEN A QUICK GLANCE AT CIPS SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGS SHOW THEBEST MATCH BEING A FAIRLY HISTORIC EVENT FOR THE GREAT LAKES - THEMAY 30-31 1998 SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MICHIGAN DERECHO AND SUBSEQUENTTORNADOES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOW INTO NORTHERN LOWER. FIRST ANDFOREMOST...WE WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVELSHEAR...AS A PRONOUNCED 50-70 KNOT MID LEVEL JET CORE CRUISESOVERHEAD INTO THE EVENING...OVERTOPPED WITH AN EVEN BETTER 80-90KNOT UPPER JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. COUPLE THAT WITH LOCALIZED BACKEDFLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT...ANDPROGGED 0-1KM/0-3KM HELICITY VALUES UPWARD OF 300 M2/S2 AND WECERTAINLY HAVE THE MAKINGS FOR SOME TROUBLE.THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS OF COURSE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...AND TO WHATDEGREE ANY EARLY STORMS MONDAY MORNING WILL MAKE AN IMPACT. AT THEMOMENT...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ONE OR MORE MCS FEATURES WILL BEONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO IA FIRST THING MONDAY MORNING...RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ELEVATEDMIXED LAYER/CAPPING POKING INTO THAT REGION...ALL WHILE A SECONDBAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARCS ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT/LOWLEVEL JET/THETA-E NOSE FROM NORTHERN MN DOWN INTO PERHAPS THEWESTERN U.P. DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING EXTENDING OVER THIS WAY THROUGHMUCH OF THE MORNING AS OUR RELATIVE DRY AIR HANGS TOUGH...THOUGHSUPPOSE A SHOWER OR TWO AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION NORTH OF M-68 ANDINTO EASTERN UPPER. NOW...HEADING THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEAFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE THE MID MISS VALLEY MCS DECAY AS IT RAPIDLYPUNCHES INTO INCREASED CAPPING OVER IL...WITH STRONG HEATING GETTINGUNDERWAY IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR OUT INTO SOUTHERN WI ANDSOUTHEAST MN...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SURGING THROUGH THELOWER 70S AND SUBSEQUENT MLCAPE VALUES PUSHING 3000+ J/KG. CLOSER TOHOME...SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT A WARM ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERSAND STORMS FIRING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHWARD LIFTINGWARM FRONT AND PRONOUNCED THETA-E AXIS. COULD WELL SEE SOMESUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AS MLCAPE VALUESQUICKLY RISE ABOVE 1500 J/KG WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR AND LOCALIZEDBACKED FLOW ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ITSELF. DEEP SHEAR VECTORSROUGHLY PARALLELING THE FRONT DO MAINLY ARGUE FOR SOME SORT OF ANORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST LINEAR STRUCTURE...BUT THIS WILL BE OUR FIRSTSHOT AT SEVERE...INCLUDING PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN LCLHEIGHTS BELOW 1KFT AND AGAIN PLENTIFUL SHEAR. HAIL THREAT VERY LOWWITH FREEZING LEVELS 12KFT AND ABOVE...OUTSIDE OF A VERY ORGANIZEDSTORM.ROUND TWO MAY COME INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WE WAIT AND SEE JUSTHOW MUCH UPSTREAM ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COMES TO LIFE. HAVE TO BELIEVETHAT INCOMING HEIGHT FALLS WORKING ON THAT MUCH INSTABILITY WILLHAVE NO TROUBLE LIGHTING UP CELLS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVERWISCONSIN...WITH INITIAL DEEP SHEAR VECTORS AGAINST THE FRONTSUGGESTING DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY FOR A TIME.HOWEVER...JUST ABOUT ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDSTORM/COLD POOL ORGANIZATION...WITH A LINEAR MCS FEATURE RAPIDLYCROSSING INTO MICHIGAN. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THAT CONVECTIVE LINE GETSREMAINS HIGHLY IN QUESTION...BUT BY THIS POINT...MOST IF NOT ALL OFNORTHERN LOWER SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR...AND IT ISINTERESTING TO NOTE THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH POSITION OF THEDRIVING SHORTWAVE AS COMPARED TO THE MAY 30-31 EVENT. BASED ONHISTORY OVER THE PAST 7 YEARS...IT WOULD SEE LIKELY THIS LINE WOULDDIVE TOWARD THE BEST LAPSE RATES INTO SOUTHERN LOWER...BUT OF COURSESTRONGLY ORGANIZED SYSTEMS OFTEN TAKE ON LIVES OF THEIR OWN. SIMPLYPUT...WILL CONTINUE TO REALLY HIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HARD ONSOCIAL MEDIA/WEB/ETC. AND WATCH REAL-TIME LATEST TRENDS AS WE GETINTO MONDAY.WOW...THAT WAS A LOT. GOOD THING THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RATHERQUIET. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO WORK EAST FROM THE PLAINSINTO THE LOWER LAKES ON TUESDAY...AS THERMAL TROUGHING AND NOTABLYDRIER AIR RUSH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THATSETUP FAVORS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO TYPICALNORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMERTIME WEATHER - TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S/70SAND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. COULD SEE A TOUCH MORE CLOUD COVERBY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TWOTRAVERSE THE OVERALL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME INTO OUR AREA...BUT ASEVERE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL...DESPITEPHANTOM GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO SQUEEZE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ATTIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Looks like my area could be in the center of the Monday storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 18z 4km NAM fizzles the MCS tomorrow morning before it gets here then the strongest development occurs from Clinton to Sterling or so early evening. Via imagesf from Mike Hamernik, the RPM sustains the MCS into nrn IL quite well into mid morning but destabilizes plenty behind it with big time storms after 0z here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 If that MCS fizzles and Clinton-Sterling redevelopment occurs, the threat would be big time for areas on east tomorrow evening because of uncontaminated buoyant air with high CAPE and shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 337 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015 SHORT TERM 335 PM CDT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO ON THE WAY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER JET ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF US WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE CURRENT LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST HIGH PLAINS STATES. INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN RAPID RAMP UP IN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION COULD INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF CWA LATE TONIGHT THAT WOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND THEN CLEAR THE CWA BY MID DAY IN ONE OF THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR TOMORROW. OTHER SCENARIO IS FOR A SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS TO FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT THAT COULD RIDE INTO THE AREA RIGHT AROUND MID-DAY...AND LIKELY BE A SEVERE WIND PRODUCER GIVEN PRSENCE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN PLACE AND 45 TO 60 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 30-40 KT+ OF 0-3KM BULK SHEAR. THIS SCENARIO...AS DEPICTED BY ARW AND NMM EAST...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 4KM NAM...IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER THAT ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT POPS IN MID-HIGH CHANCE RANGE DURING POSSIBLE PERIOD OF MCS...AS IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT STEERING FLOW/CORFIDI VECTORS TAKES THE LIKELY MCS NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS IS WHAT IS SHOWN ON MANY OTHER MODELS INCLUDING 12KM NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. POSSIBLE MID DAY MCS COULD THROW A WRENCH IN REST OF FORECAST CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ON MONDAY IN TERMS OF IMPACT ON INSTABILITY/CLOUDS AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. SHOULD WE BE MISSED BY THE MCS...VERY STRONG EML WILL BE ADVECTED OVER THE AREA WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S CELSIUS...WITH A STOUT CAP NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT WILL MAKE FOR A WARM TO HOT AND HUMID AND WINDY AFTERNOON. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO UNSEASONABLY STRONG SUB 1000 MB LOW IN NORTHERN LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. HAVE STAYED SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH...CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY WITH MID-DAY CONVECTION...BUT IF WE STAY CAPPED MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THERMAL PROGS EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA WIDE. THIS WOULD ALSO SERVE TO BUILD INSTABILITY TO EXTREME LEVELS IN 4000-5000+ J/KG RANGE GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN LOW-MID 70S AND VERY STEEP NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW TO THE NORTH WILL BE APPROACHING...IN ADDITION 60-70 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX PROVIDING UP TO 60 KT OF DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KT WILL PROVIDE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND 0-3KM HELICITY OF 400-500 M2/S2. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE CAP BREAKING IS WITH THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON THIS OCCURRING. SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL EASILY BECOME SEVERE...WITH A LIKELY SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE AT LEAST INITIALLY DESPITE SFC WINDS STARTING TO VEER. THIS IS DUE TO DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT SFC TO WNW AT 500 MB BEING MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AFTER INITIATION. HAVE MENTIONED ALL SEVERE HAZARDS IN GRIDS MONDAY EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF AREA IN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND INCLUDED 10% OR GREATER CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE EVENING AND END THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CANNOT FAIL TO MENTION THREAT FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FLOODING AS WELL CONSIDERING THE ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS MANY AREAS...WITH PWAT VALUES IN 99TH PERCENTILE NEAR 2 INCHES. OVERALLL...CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MEDIUM IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND OVERALL FORECAST ON MONDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN CWA IS MEDIUM-HIGH...AS EVEN MID-DAY MCS THAT COULD POSSIBLY TEMPER EVENING SEVERE THREAT SOME WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS...EVERYONE IN OUR REGION SHOULD STAY WEATHER AWARE TOMORROW AND HAVE A MEANS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS SHOULD THEY BE ISSUED. RC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I can't believe APX mentioned CIPS is showing "THEMAY 30-31 1998 SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MICHIGAN DERECHO" as the best analog. That was the biggest baddest storm I ever went through in my life, it hit at 6am here, with 80-90mph wind gusts for 5 minutes straight, lost lots of trees and power was out for 5 days I think it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Just a thought....we may want to make a thread for tomorrow for severe...as it looks like there will still be bouts of severe and heavy rain throughout the week for this thread...BUT tomorrow looks like a "special" day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Just a thought....we may want to make a thread for tomorrow for severe...as it looks like there will still be bouts of severe and heavy rain throughout the week for this thread...BUT tomorrow looks like a "special" day... CAll me superstitious, but I don't want to jinx anything by doing that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 While people look at tomorrow....18z NAM says IA is even better on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Just a thought....we may want to make a thread for tomorrow for severe...as it looks like there will still be bouts of severe and heavy rain throughout the week for this thread...BUT tomorrow looks like a "special" day... I thought of that last night but was going to wait until we get an upgrade. Plan is to split all the relevant posts from here into a new thread so that it won't be cluttered with stuff pertaining to the other days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Full on weenie (rightfully so) AFDs abound in the subforum... @Powerball...then for archives sake, if tomorrow goes bullistic, then we ahould change the name of this one and make a new thread for the rest of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Full on weenie (rightfully so) AFDs abound in the subforum... @Powerball...then for archives sake, if tomorrow goes bullistic, then we ahould change the name of this one and make a new thread for the rest of the week That sounds good to me. It's up to Hoosier though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 IWX already added a severe wording to their grids. They didn't have a bad discussion either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 While people look at tomorrow....18z NAM says IA is even better on Wednesday weds1.gif weds2.gif weds3.gif weds4.gif weds5.gif weds6.gif weds7.gif very impressive could be a rather active week for the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 That sounds good to me. It's up to Hoosier though. I'd wait until the moderate upgrade comes, which my guess is would be by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'd wait until the moderate upgrade comes, which my guess is would be by tonight. Yeah it should be by tonight. Wonder where they will put it tho... Nrn IL and Srn Wisconsin or just Srn Wisconsin... I'm not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Yeah it should be by tonight. Wonder where they will put it tho... Nrn IL and Srn Wisconsin or just Srn Wisconsin... I'm not sure yet. I wouldn't rule out a moderate risk in lower MI for damaging winds either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Yeah it should be by tonight. Wonder where they will put it tho... Nrn IL and Srn Wisconsin or just Srn Wisconsin... I'm not sure yet. May be potential for moderate in parts of Wrn Michigan as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I wouldn't rule out a moderate risk in lower MI for damaging winds either. I would think this is pretty much a slam dunk. If nothing else the morning MCS will likely be worth that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Yeah Michigan very likely too, didn't make the call for there because I have been focusing my research at IL and Wisco and not Michigan -- but I was mainly questioning how far north or south the moderate will be placed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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