andyhb Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Man that shortwave is just absolutely nasty looking on the NAM. There is obviously some northern stream flow feeding this thing with a near 90 kt max at 500 mb at 00z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Holy s--- @ this run of the NAM. Indeed. 992 mb surface low over Lake Superior at 00z Tuesday. First glance suggests the solution does not appear as convectively contaminated as yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Also still unzipping farther south/west along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Man that shortwave is just absolutely nasty looking on the NAM. There is obviously some northern stream flow feeding this thing with a near 90 kt max at 500 mb at 00z Tuesday. As if the setup isn't nasty already, it's going to get really ugly if we lay down a boundary that locally backs the winds. The extreme forecast soundings that have been posted the past few days have had mostly S/SSW/SW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Also still unzipping farther south/west along the front. Right over nrn IL into chi metro after 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 The NAM attempts to develop some stuff in S. MI/No. IN during the afternoon with some weak forcing in SWMI by 21z. Looks like it's leftover from the previous MCS but even an OFB or two could spark some discrete storms during the late afternoon. IWX's AFD mentioned the potential for some afternoon convection too: WITH POSSIBLE MESOSCALEINFLUENCES FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND THE LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCEDINSTABILITY WITH EML...POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE THERE FOR SCATTEREDSTORMS TO DEVELOP AT LEADING EDGE OF THIS POCKET OF STEEP MID LEVELLAPSE RATES FROM MID MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. ADVANCING MID LEVELWARM LAYER SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY THE MID TO LATEAFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ACROSS THEFAR NORTH AND FAR EAST WILL LIKELY HAVE A SOMEWHAT SMALLERCONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAGNITUDE. WHILE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS INTHE LOW TO MID CHANCE RANGE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONGINSTABILITY AND ROBUST DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES POSE SOME CAUSE FORCONCERN IN TERMS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. Obviously the real potential is further NW into WI/MI but there's still something to watch here. I think SPC has pretty good reason to go MDT at 17:30z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Right over nrn IL into chi metro after 0z Not sure why everyone is being so pessimistic about the potential here in nrn IL... Even though I do realize there may be some MCS remnants, but we should recover perfectly fine after that as all the models indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Not sure why everyone is being so pessimistic about the potential here in nrn IL... I think it is moreso just in comparison to further north of here. There is plenty of dangerous potential over a good size area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'll be doing the forecast for tomorrow for LOT today. 12z NAM is definitely concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I think it is moreso just in comparison to further north of here. There is plenty of dangerous potential over a good size area. Yeah that makes sense but if you look at the AFD it just looks like the whole potential is going to be muddled by the MCS which I would not agree to completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Problem solved Hahaha yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Yeah that makes sense but if you look at the AFD it just looks like the whole potential is going to be muddled by the MCS which I would not agree to completely. Yeah, thats the catch 22...muddled can also lead to even more enhanced areas that are difficult to pin point at this juncture...via OFBs and subtle convergence points. Where as the strengthening surface reflection is a no brainer. Either way, the NAM not backing down is a cause for concern IMO (i.e. dangerous potential) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Yeah, thats the catch 22...muddled can also lead to even more enhanced areas that are difficult to pin point at this juncture...via OFBs and subtle convergence points. Where as the strengthening surface reflection is a no brainer. Either way, the NAM not backing down is a cause for concern IMO (i.e. dangerous potential) Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 4km NAM's take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 The 4k NAM makes it look like more of a threat for S Wisconsin and N Illinois than Central and North Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 South is the way to go. Morning mcs will track along i88. Chicago back southwest towards qc looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 South is the way to go. Morning mcs will track along i88. Chicago back southwest towards qc looks good. Yup, more than enough recovery should be in place for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 The NAM is super insistent on firing storms pretty far southwest enhanced by the outflow from the morning mcs which should be a good one. There could be a mini screw zone between this action and the better forcing north towards the parent low. Also, despite unfavorable diurnal timing, the nocturnal mcs will encounter a much less hostile environment than we've seen lately and may be able to sustain longer than modeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 The NAM is super insistent on firing storms pretty far southwest enhanced by the outflow from the morning mcs which should be a good one. There could be a mini screw zone between this action and the better forcing north towards the parent low. Also, despite unfavorable diurnal timing, the nocturnal mcs will encounter a much less hostile environment than we've seen lately and may be able to sustain longer than modeled right now. Don't even mention screw zone... because if there is one, it will be right over Northbrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Just chatted SPC and new Day 2 outlook will have all but far southern LOT CWA in an Enhanced Risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Don't even mention screw zone... because if there is one, it will be right over Northbrook The thing that's nice about big lines is that they are widespread. It goes without saying that the longer that discrete or quasi-discrete mode is maintained, the better chance that some places miss out. SPC seemed non-committal about convective mode, which is probably wise for the initial day 2 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Just chatted SPC and new Day 2 outlook will have all but far southern LOT CWA in an Enhanced Risk.Good, thats a smart move. Any info about a moderate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Just chatted SPC and new Day 2 outlook will have all but far southern LOT CWA in an Enhanced Risk. Thanks for the info. Are you going to be at LOT tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Thanks for the info. Are you going to be at LOT tomorrow? No prob! Yup I'll be here. I'll be the short term forecaster like today so it should be an interesting shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Good, thats a smart move. Any info about a moderate? The SPC forecaster didn't mention anything about a MDT. I'd imagine that could come with Day 1 if confidence becomes high in widespread coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 SREF has been continually going up with the tornado ingredients, 03/06z Tuesday is pretty concerning for MI especially considering it will be night time and the values don't back off any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wow, sig tor over 10 on the NAM for the Chicago area by evening tomorrow. Monstrous cape feeding into the area from the southwest as well. Scary situation indeed. Should see storms quickly unzip southwest along the advancing cold front like we saw last night into the higher buoyancy further southwest. Gonna be some MONSTER HPs late tomorrow to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wow, sig tor over 10 on the NAM for the Chicago area by evening tomorrow. Monstrous cape feeding into the area from the southwest as well. Scary situation indeed. Should see storms quickly unzip southwest along the advancing cold front like we saw last night into the higher buoyancy further southwest. Gonna be some MONSTER HPs late tomorrow to be sure. That's crazy, thank god SPC is planning on expanding their Enhanced to include most of LOT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wow, sig tor over 10 on the NAM for the Chicago area by evening tomorrow. Monstrous cape feeding into the area from the southwest as well. Scary situation indeed. Should see storms quickly unzip southwest along the advancing cold front like we saw last night into the higher buoyancy further southwest. Gonna be some MONSTER HPs late tomorrow to be sure. Everybody has good instability/shear so I don't want to minimize the threat anywhere in the zone but looking at the progs, the best instability generally stays just west of MI but the best shear is there...so where does that leave the best overlap? Arguably either side of Lake Michigan, including the Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 SREF has been continually going up with the tornado ingredients, 03/06z Tuesday is pretty concerning for MI especially considering it will be night time and the values don't back off any. A nighttime tornado threat certainly appears to be quite possible/likely(?) into the overnight hours. Both the NAM/GFS show little to no CINH and a strongly unstable airmass through the overnight hours. Coupled with 0-1km bulk shear of 35kts, a tornado threat certainly appears warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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