jojo762 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 On paper, Monday certainly looks high-end based off of the model solutions, particularly the GFS and NAM. With that said, there are caveats. The 00z RGEM develops an MCS over the Dakotas early Monday morning and that rolls into Wisconsin by Midday. Although you'd think that would have more of an effect on instability, the RGEM still shows strong heating across southern Wisconsin. The precip fields don't appear to show intense convection during the afternoon though. Edit: The 00z GFS shows a similar MCS scenario. Not making a forecast by any means, but pointing out that observation. Even the NAM shows a pretty similar scenario just to a lesser extent.. has two MCS's developing monday morning, with one moving E toward S WI but dissipating by or before 18z (due to capping?) and causes next to no impact to instability, and another MCS moving across N WI and dumping loads of rain. Regardless it seems as though one or both of these MCS's (but probably more so the southern one) could intensify during the afternoon and still cause a significant SVR risk of damaging winds and large hail, and possibly tornadoes still depending on the exact morphology and mode of the MCS/storms and if they are or become surface based. Would also have to become concerned about the outflow this MCS would put off, as it would likely be a focus point for possible initiation of SFC based supercells and pooling of instability and even further enhance the already impressive SRH and LLVL SHR, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 Would like to get yours and others opinions on the convective mode. To me, there's no overwhelming reason to think there will be a really quick transition to linear mode. Directional shear does become less as we go through the evening but the better forcing is well north / longer capping potential also makes one wonder about the coverage farther south. I am not seeing a huge amount of linear forcing in the models, I think this has a good potential to remain discrete even after sunset, capping doesn't even get too huge until well after 06z. Which would make sense given the strong advection from the south-southeast. As for the Day 2 MDT question, I think the answer is yes because of the multiple rounds, the morning MCS should be severe and then the afternoon stuff obviously would be explosive. I think they will word it very much in the direction of going even higher as well considering the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 The 12z Euro remains more subdued with the GFS more in the middle ground, but still pretty insane with the shear. Main difference with the EC is a weaker wind field. It also kills lapse rates because it produces typical 6-hour global model convective QPF blobs. FWIW, I haven't been impressed with the Euro for about a year now anyway. Just throwing that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 A number of the 21z SREF members go ballistic with deepening the surface low...like more than the 12z NAM (mainly the ARW members)...have to think it's convective contamination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I am not seeing a huge amount of linear forcing in the models, I think this has a good potential to remain discrete even after sunset, capping doesn't even get too huge until well after 06z. Which would make sense given the strong advection from the south-southeast. As for the Day 2 MDT question, I think the answer is yes because of the multiple rounds, the morning MCS should be severe and then the afternoon stuff obviously would be explosive. I think they will word it very much in the direction of going even higher as well considering the potential. They were clearly toying with the idea of a day 3 moderate so I wouldn't be too surprised if the new day 2 has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 They were clearly toying with the idea of a day 3 moderate so I wouldn't be too surprised if the new day 2 has it. I am glad they didn't, almost all day 3 mdt have been the kiss of death for a potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Some of the NAM soundings for lower MI at 0Z Monday are absolutely incredible with 0-1km SRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 and CAPEs over 4000 J/kg. 0-3km EHI is about 22, no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Some of the NAM soundings for lower MI at 0Z Monday are absolutely incredible with 0-1km SRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 and CAPEs over 4000 J/kg. 0-3km EHI is about 22, no big deal. This is insane anywhere but for Michigan, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Parameter space remains insane for Monday. Individual solutions aren't clarifying the picture much. Anything from a warm sector MCS Monday evening killing the potential for the later cold front for more southern locations as in the WRF-ARW to a nasty hit for central lower Michigan along the warm front early followed by round 2 with the cold front as shown on the GEM. The beauty of forecasting convection....parameters are off the charts and the forcing will be there, so we know that someone will get crushed. But it won't be possible to know when, by what, or exactly where until the last possible second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 SPC stayed with ENH risk in D2 ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SE MN...WI...LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION AND NRN OH VALLEY... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WHERE A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR. A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 65 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. ..UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE 60 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F WHICH SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM THAT APPEARS QUITE ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET COUPLET. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. CONSIDERING THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO THE BE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND ORGANIZATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. MANY PROBLEMS EXIST FOR DETERMINING THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR SEVERE INCLUDING 1) HOW MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE SETUP IN THE AFTERNOON AND 2) HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE CAPPING INVERSION IMPEDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A MORNING MCS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM ERN MN AND ERN IA ACROSS SRN WI...NRN IL AND INTO IND AROUND MIDDAY. FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE MORNING MCS...AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN MO NWD INTO ERN IA WITH NEW CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE NRN END OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN FAR SE MN AND NWRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD AND GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ON MONDAY FOR MADISON WI SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES WITH MLCAPE ABOVE 4000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 60 TO 70 KT. THIS WOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS COULD ORGANIZE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN WI AND CROSSING LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI BY EARLY EVENING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND A LONG-TRACK TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR A SEVERE WIND PRODUCING LINEAR MCS THAT MOVES QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON REACHING LOWER MI BY EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH-END EVENT FOR EITHER TORNADOES OR WIND DAMAGE...THE ENHANCED AREA WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST OF WI AND LOWER MI WITH THE SIGNIFICANT HATCHED AREA ALSO INCLUDING SERN MN. ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 So D1 has an enhanced risk for possible MCS development and it's oriented right towards Monday's risk, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Text is nice if nothing else. I'm sure we'll end up seeing this upgraded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'm surprised it's not expanded further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I'm surprised it's not expanded further south.It was expanded south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 It was expanded south Think he's meaning even more S/SSW like both the NAM's show as becoming uncapped... EDIT: Also am very surprised that we didn't see a MDT looks as though they're struggling with what the convective mode will be due to the MCS, which wont be decided until morning.. On a side note, Broyles issued the outlook, in which case he is usually pretty optimistic about setups so it surprised me even more not to see the MDT. Could see it at 1730z if things become more clear in 06Z and 12Z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 It was expanded southNot really by much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Think he's meaning even more S/SSW like both the NAM's show as becoming uncapped... Yep, I just find it odd they based there's on the 0Z NAM but didn't expand quite a bit into Indiana/Illinois/Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Looks like the 00z Euro really ramped up the LLJ from previous runs by 00z Tuesday. Widespread 45-55 kts and even some pockets of 55+ in MI at 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Yep, I just find it odd they based there's on the 0Z NAM but didn't expand quite a bit into Indiana/Illinois/Ohio Agreed! I was also confused... They talked about the NAM a bunch yet none of that was translated into the graphic... even Madison is barely in the Enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I think there's a pretty good if not excellent chance it gets expanded south into more of IL/IN etc. on future updates, although the overall setup becomes more conditional with southward extent because of the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I def see this being upgraded and expanded south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Text is nice if nothing else. I'm sure we'll end up seeing this upgraded Very strong wording in that outlook. I think it's less a question of if and more a question of exactly where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 H7 temps increase and upper level support really decreases further south. I think most of the threat stays north of the WI-IL and MI-IN borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 Very strong wording in that outlook. I think it's less a question of if and more a question of exactly where. I agree at least to probably Chicago. Not saying the risk suddenly expands to Peoria or something crazy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 DTX's AFD is a great read covering all aspects: POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHTTHE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS LONG TERM. 00Z MODEL SUITE CENTERING INON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN PLAY THROUGH THISPERIOD. CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIAWILL SHEAR INTO THE MEAN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDENT WITH ASTRONG IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT JET MAX LIFING OUT OF THE CENTRALPACIFIC. FAVORABLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND THERESULTANT GREATER HEIGHT FALL CENTER WILL ELICIT A SOLID LOW LEVELRESPONSE BEGINNING TONIGHT AS THESE FEATURES SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS.00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ALL CONTINUE TO PRESENT AN EXTREMELY DYNAMICSOLUTION...GENERATING A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET BENEATH 80-90 KNOT 500 MBFLOW WITHIN THE EMERGING WARM SECTOR IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OFEFFECTIVE LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO LIFT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO THENEAR THE STRAITS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.SLOW EASTWARD RELEASE OF EXISTING SURFACE RIDGING AND BRIEF MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING STABILITY LOCALLYTHROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. INSOLATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THISTIME LIKELY DICTATED BY THE EXTENT AND TRAJECTORY OF ANY CIRRUSDEBRIS LEFT FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION UPSTREAM. ABSENT OF THIS...AHIGH DEGREE OF SUN COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER WARM AIRADVECTION WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AREAWIDE.GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL APPEARS TO LAG SLIGHTLY...DEEPERTHETA-E PLUME TRAILING THE PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT NOT EXPECTEDTO ENTER SE MICHIGAN UNTIL 21Z AT THE EARLIEST. CONVECTIVEINITATION MAY FIRST FOCUS ALONG THIS ADVANCING BOUNDARY...SOME MODELGUIDANCE CENTERING THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE GROWINGINSTABILITY BUBBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/SW LOWER MICORRIDOR. THE LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE QUALITY AND LINGERINGCAPPING ISSUES SUGGESTS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR DRY CONDITIONS TOHOLD LOCALLY PRIOR 20Z...THE CAVEAT BEING SHOULD A MORE PROGRESSIVEDOWNSTREAM PROPAGATING MCS ENTER THE PICTURE.STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT WILL TEND TO ALIGN IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THESURFACE LOW AND NORTH OF THE ARCING WARM FRONT...THIS MAXIMUM INMASS CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TENDING TO ALIGN FROMSOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRALLOWER MI. THIS WILL PLACE THE TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH THE I-69CORRIDOR WITHIN A MORE FAVORED DOWNSTREAM POSITION TO SEE A GREATERCOVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION 20Z-02Z. POTENTIALWOULD EXIST FOR THE INBOUND WARM FRONTAL EXTENSION TO ANCHOR A LOWERCOVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR POINTS SOUTHWARD. PRONOUNCED INCREASE INBOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THIS TIME...YIELDINGCORRESPONDING HIGH MAGNITUDE BULK 0-6 KM AND LOW LEVEL VALUES OFSHEAR/HELICITY. BACKGROUND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CERTAINLYCONDUCIVE FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND ROTATINGUPDRAFTS...THE MAGNITUDE/SCALE AND MODE OF DEVELOPMENT DETERMINANTON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH OF ANYUPSTREAM CONVECTION.DEEP THETA-E PLUME WORKS INTO SE MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...IMMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIVEACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE 02Z-08Z TIMEFRAME MONDAY NIGHT. BESTDESTABILIZATION LOCALLY THROUGH THIS TIME...A NOTED INCREASE INDEWPOINTS WITH A STEADY STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THISWILL PROVIDE A SECONDARY WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND ANACCOMPANYING SEVERE WX RISK AREAWIDE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PERTHE USUAL...A COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING SETUP FOR OUR DOWNSTREAMLOCATION WITH A MYRIAD OF SMALLER SCALE FACTORS LIKELY TO DICTATETHE EVENTUAL OUTCOME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 H7 temps increase and upper level support really decreases further south. I think most of the threat stays north of the WI-IL and MI-IN borders. I tend to agree. Assuming the stronger/more amped solutions verify, unless there's upscale growth into a QLCS (which is possible, but not certain depending on the strength of the cap), the main threat should remain in Central Lower MI and S. WI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 FWIW, the NAM is by far an outlier amongst the SREFs for DTW. IT shows MLCAPE values between 4000 and 4500 J/G at 00z tomorrow, while the mean amongst the SREFs show only MLCAPE values around 2000-2500 J/KG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 FWIW, the NAM is by far an outlier amongst the SREFs for DTW. IT shows MLCAPE values between 4000 and 4500 J/G at 00z tomorrow, while the mean amongst the SREFs show only MLCAPE values around 2000-2500 J/KG... You absolutely won't need 4000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE with the amount of shear being forecast tomorrow. To just see the SREF mean with 2000+ is concerning enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 You absolutely won't need 4000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE with the amount of shear being forecast tomorrow. To just see the SREF mean with 2000+ is concerning enough. Of course. It was just something to note as the 12z run comes out. The difference seems to be the NAM's assuming steeper mid-leve lapse rates (compared to the other models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Holy s--- @ this run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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