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June 22-23 Severe Weather Outbreak


Stebo

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Severe Thunderstorm warning for Sanilac County in Michigan

 

I watched it go from my backyard, impressive growth and nice striations as it moved SE away, wish I would have jumped on it as I see its showing some rotation right now.

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I watched it go from my backyard, impressive growth and nice striations as it moved SE away, wish I would have jumped on it as I see its showing some rotation right now.

 

I swear whenever there is a storm with possible tornado in Michigan, you guys in the Thumb seem to have the best luck getting these

 

 

 

 

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I watched it go from my backyard, impressive growth and nice striations as it moved SE away, wish I would have jumped on it as I see its showing some rotation right now.

 

I swear whenever there is a storm with possible tornado in Michigan, you guys in the Thumb seem to have the best luck getting these

 

 

 

 

 

pretty good rotation on it. wouldnt be surprised if theres something. 

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SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BY 01Z FROM LOWER MI SWWD

INTO NERN IL.

 

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS

LOWER MI PER EXPANDING ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT IS EVOLVING ATOP

BOUNDARY LAYER STRATUS.  WHILE 00Z SOUNDING AT DTX IS NOTABLY

CAPPED...800MB TEMPERATURE IS 7C COOLER AT GRB IN CLOSER PROXIMITY

TO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  COOLING PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD

CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKER INHIBITION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ELEVATED

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND NEAR-SFC BASED TSTMS WILL

LIKELY EVOLVE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN

INDIANA.  SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORT DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND

GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OBSERVED SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE. 

ADDITIONALLY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL OVER NRN IL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK

SEWD ALONG DECAYED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CHICAGO

METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO

NWRN INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH...NRN INDIANA...NERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 230031Z - 230130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BY 01Z FROM LOWER MI SWWD
INTO NERN IL.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
LOWER MI PER EXPANDING ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT IS EVOLVING ATOP
BOUNDARY LAYER STRATUS. WHILE 00Z SOUNDING AT DTX IS NOTABLY
CAPPED...800MB TEMPERATURE IS 7C COOLER AT GRB IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. COOLING PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKER INHIBITION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND NEAR-SFC BASED TSTMS WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN
INDIANA. SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORT DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OBSERVED SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE.
ADDITIONALLY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL OVER NRN IL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SEWD ALONG DECAYED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO
NWRN INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING.

..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/23/2015

post-4544-0-41584500-1435019869_thumb.gi

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This line of the discussion is incredibly important for south Chicago and nw IN residents...

 

ADDITIONALLY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL OVER NRN IL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SEWD ALONG DECAYED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO
NWRN INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING.

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