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June 22-23 Severe Weather Outbreak


Stebo

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Just thinking back on the crazy forecast soundings that were posted for Chicagoland valid at 00z Tuesday, I think they had temps in the mid 80s and dews in the mid 70s.  It's only 2 or 3 degrees off from those values right now so while the threat has been tempered to some degree, I'd have some cautious optimism around there at this point.

 

right....things have been quite messy all day....but LOT's area wasn't progged to have much in the way of surfaced based convection until 00z to 03Z anyways...we'll see

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On the storm that crossed the Mississippi at Muscatine. It's had a persistent wall cloud and came close to dropping a few times. It's looking slightly less impressive visually now, but I'll be staying on it. Concur with the slightly south of due east storm movement.

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Capping is still an issue for MI / NE IL, as 700mb temps range from 8*C to 12*C with the absence of a trigger.

 

The stuff struggling to bubble up around Big Rapids (MI) is where the cap is presently weakest.

 

Otherwise, everything looks to be a go for decent development (including impressive low-level convergence).

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Capping is still an issue for MI / NE IL, as 700mb temps range from 8*C to 12*C with the absence of a trigger.

The stuff struggling to bubble up around Big Rapids (MI) is where the cap is presently weakest.

Otherwise, everything looks to be a go for decent development (including impressive low-level convergence).

This is probably a more favorable idea for continued discrete mode.

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LOT update....

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
703 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
703 PM CDT

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA...IN
PARTICULAR ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY
AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR IN PLACE IS ALLOWING FOR
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST
HOUR...THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN THEIR
INTENSITY. MAIN STORM OF FOCUS AT THE MOMENT IS MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WHITESIDE COUNTY INTO LEE AND OGLE. THIS STORM
HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF FOR THE LAST HOUR AND EXHIBITED MID LEVEL
ROTATION...BUT WITH ITS MAIN CORE STRUGGLING TO PERSIST. THIS IS
LIKELY OWING TO THE STOUT CAP/WARM AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS ALSO
LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS...CAP HAS ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE NEAR TERM AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

AN ERODING CAP WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY STILL PUSHING OVER STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG EASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR INCREASING INTENSITY OF CURRENT
STORMS AND COULD ALLOW FOR COVERAGE TO ALSO BEGIN INCREASING.
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IN
THE NEAR TERM WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATCH BOX. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY IN THE PRESENCE OF
SEVERAL LOW LEVEL FOCI...A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT AND EXPECTED STORMS IN
THE NEAR TERM IS LOWER...BUT LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THESE STORMS
TO CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH WIND AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. ESPECIALLY AS CURRENT PWATS OF AROUND
2.0 INCHES JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA
LATER THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

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