TimChgo9 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Watching the storms coming out of Iowa, they seem to be sinking a tad south as they move eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Just thinking back on the crazy forecast soundings that were posted for Chicagoland valid at 00z Tuesday, I think they had temps in the mid 80s and dews in the mid 70s. It's only 2 or 3 degrees off from those values right now so while the threat has been tempered to some degree, I'd have some cautious optimism around there at this point. right....things have been quite messy all day....but LOT's area wasn't progged to have much in the way of surfaced based convection until 00z to 03Z anyways...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Supercell in whiteside county in Illinois needs a TOR warning, has strong rotation on it... just got a SVR warning that said "tornado possible" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Cell near Morrison in Whiteside Co. now svr warned. Good call by those noticing its potential while near Clinton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Supercell in whiteside county in Illinois needs a TOR warning, has strong rotation on it... just got a SVR warning that said "tornado possible" these types of warnings are super dangerous. The general public will only really pay attention if its got a tor warning on it imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The radar hole in NW MO is god awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Wow this thing really tightened on last scan Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Whiteside Co. now TOR warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 On the storm that crossed the Mississippi at Muscatine. It's had a persistent wall cloud and came close to dropping a few times. It's looking slightly less impressive visually now, but I'll be staying on it. Concur with the slightly south of due east storm movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suckzone Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 So do you guys think this mcs that these cells form into will go due east east/southeast or slight north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 So do you guys think this mcs that these cells form into will go due east east/southeast or slight north? East/Southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 whiteside co. storm is really developing rapidly... large supercell, with strong rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Possibly a TDS on the Whiteside County cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Capping is still an issue for MI / NE IL, as 700mb temps range from 8*C to 12*C with the absence of a trigger. The stuff struggling to bubble up around Big Rapids (MI) is where the cap is presently weakest. Otherwise, everything looks to be a go for decent development (including impressive low-level convergence). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Possibly a TDS on the Whiteside County cell. Looks a bit displaced from the actual rotation... EDIT: Meanwhile rotation is increasing significantly on the supercell S of DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 New tornado warning in northern MO...of course it's entering the dead spot with no good radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looks a bit displaced from the actual rotation... I noticed that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonofRO Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRR&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Nice read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 GRR all in according to their latest update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looks a bit displaced from the actual rotation... EDIT: Meanwhile rotation is increasing significantly on the supercell S of DVN. Ya that's why I made sure to say possibly, lol. Couldn't tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Capping is still an issue for MI / NE IL, as 700mb temps range from 8*C to 12*C with the absence of a trigger. The stuff struggling to bubble up around Big Rapids (MI) is where the cap is presently weakest. Otherwise, everything looks to be a go for decent development (including impressive low-level convergence). This is probably a more favorable idea for continued discrete mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Wonder if we'll see more storms form just north of the current tornado warned cell in Sterling, IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Couplet on the cell SW of Davenport. Needs a tor warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looks a bit displaced from the actual rotation... EDIT: Meanwhile rotation is increasing significantly on the supercell S of DVN. surprised theirs no warning on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 LOT update.... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL703 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...703 PM CDTCONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA...INPARTICULAR ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITYAND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR IN PLACE IS ALLOWING FORORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH THUNDERSTORMSTHAT ARE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...OVER THE LASTHOUR...THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN THEIRINTENSITY. MAIN STORM OF FOCUS AT THE MOMENT IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST THROUGH WHITESIDE COUNTY INTO LEE AND OGLE. THIS STORMHAS MAINTAINED ITSELF FOR THE LAST HOUR AND EXHIBITED MID LEVELROTATION...BUT WITH ITS MAIN CORE STRUGGLING TO PERSIST. THIS ISLIKELY OWING TO THE STOUT CAP/WARM AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS ALSOLIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.HOWEVER...PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS...CAP HAS ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY INTHE NEAR TERM AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND OVER THENEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.AN ERODING CAP WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY STILL PUSHING OVER STRONGLOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG EASTWARD MOVING FRONTALBOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR INCREASING INTENSITY OF CURRENTSTORMS AND COULD ALLOW FOR COVERAGE TO ALSO BEGIN INCREASING.DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED INTHE NEAR TERM WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LIKELY ACROSSTHE WATCH BOX. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BETHE MAIN THREATS BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY IN THE PRESENCE OFSEVERAL LOW LEVEL FOCI...A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.CONFIDENCE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT AND EXPECTED STORMS INTHE NEAR TERM IS LOWER...BUT LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THESE STORMSTO CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH WIND AND HEAVYRAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. ESPECIALLY AS CURRENT PWATS OF AROUND2.0 INCHES JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWALATER THIS EVENING.RODRIGUEZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 FFW for areas by the Sterling Tornado warned cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Being how close that is to the radar site, that needs a warning. It's small, but strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 LOT update.... Sounds good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 is cylcone on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Being how close that is to the radar site, that needs a warning. It's small, but strong. pretty good size tornado warning just issued for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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