JasonofRO Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 DTX just updated their Hazardous Weather Outlook. They aren't giving up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Anyone know when the next Mesoanalysis update will be?Every :25 after it updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 DTX just updated their Hazardous Weather Outlook. They aren't giving up! AFTER A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT AND EXIT BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BUT TORNADOES AND FLOODING ARE ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION WILL BE WEST TO EAST AT 45 MPH AND PROPAGATION OF LINES OF STORMS COULD INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Every :25 after it updates. Thanks! Thats funny... it shows my last post when I said my Mesoanalysis updated was exactly 25 mins ago hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Some rotation showing up on the storm north of DVN and the storm east as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Some rotation showing up on the storm north of DVN and the storm east as well... Yeah I'm seeing rotation on the cell N of DVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 DTX just updated their Hazardous Weather Outlook. They aren't giving up! possible something maybe trying to get going near big rapids, it would be near the instability gradient with a nice uncontaminated flow from the SW into it if it were to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Something at least attempting to initiate in the Big Rapids/White Cloud area. No coincidence that it's basically the one part of Michigan that doesn't have CIN according to mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 You would think that little shortwave over SW MI could have potentially lifted that cap. Maybe the LLJ can here shortly as the main low progresses Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonofRO Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 that northern Wisconsin severe thunderstorm watch is looking like a waste at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 initiation over W MI. Let's see what this can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 So did Albia get hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0608 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NRN ILCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 335...VALID 222308Z - 230015ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 335 CONTINUES.SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS WRN AND NRNPORTIONS OF WW335 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGEALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM SCNTRL IA...NEWD INTO NWRN IL.ALONG THIS ZONE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH ONELONGER-LIVED UPDRAFT PROPAGATING SEWD ACROSS MONROE COUNTY IA. OVERTHE NEXT FEW HOURS IT APPEARS TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASESUBSTANTIALLY INTO NRN IL ALONG/NEAR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ISLOSING ITS IDENTITY. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DEEPENINGACROSS NWRN MO BUT THIS CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE A BIT DUE TO VERYWARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DARROW.. 06/22/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonofRO Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 yeah I see what you are talking about Chargers around Big Rapids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Storm west of DVN looking increasingly better on reflectivity... tops above 50KFT as well... EDIT: and the one north of DVN has developed strongish rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonofRO Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 looks as though a nice line could be in the process of forming there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 pocket of 4500 CAPE near LOT per meso update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 85/76 at DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Basicaly all of Illinois with SBCAPE of 3000-5000. Very quick recovery in nw IL in the past couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 First real breaks in the clouds for me here over by Lewis airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Effective sig tor up to 6 over LOT and Joliet area now due to that CAPE and helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Basicaly all of Illinois with SBCAPE of 3000-5000. Very quick recovery in nw IL in the past couple hours. Optimism suggests we could get something going here in the next hour or so if these storms can hold together and strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Seeing rapid intensification of the two supercells as they cross the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 84/74...storms in eastern iowa near davenport growing stronger in an area that didn't have nearly as much destabilization as areas further south near the ottumwa cell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Seeing rapid intensification of the two supercells as they cross the river. I was observing the same thing... Ive been paying a lot of attention to those for about an hour. Northern most one has exhibited pretty long lived rotation, and much stronger than the southernmost one. But the southernmost supercell looks better on reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Meso has huge numbers for western IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I was observing the same thing... Ive been paying a lot of attention to those for about an hour. Northern most one has exhibited pretty long lived rotation, and much stronger than the southernmost one. But the southernmost supercell looks better on reflectivity. wonder why no warning for the northern one tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 latest VWP data from DVN is pretty meh as far as directional shear goes, but shows strong speed shear.. downstream at KILX is a bit better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 84/74...storms in eastern iowa near davenport growing stronger in an area that didn't have nearly as much destabilization as areas further south near the ottumwa cell... Just thinking back on the crazy forecast soundings that were posted for Chicagoland valid at 00z Tuesday, I think they had temps in the mid 80s and dews in the mid 70s. It's only 2 or 3 degrees off from those values right now so while the threat has been tempered to some degree, I'd have some cautious optimism around there at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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