jojo762 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 AFD's from WFO La Crosse and Milwaukee, both are pretty on board about Monday... ARX: ATTENTION TURNS TO 2-PART SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY INTOMONDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENTSHOWING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTSUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SD BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING 850MBMOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONTLOOKS TO DRIVE AN MCS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MONDAY MORNINGHOURS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT DROPSOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE U.P.BY EARLY EVENING. AMPLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70KT PER THE NAMCOMBINED WITH 0-1 MLCAPE AROUND 6000J/KG WILL PRODUCE AN EXPLOSIVESUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND/TORNADOESALL POSSIBLE. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLEARING IN THEWAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT...WILL MAINTAIN A VERYVIGILANT EYE ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT. MKX: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST SUN NT WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZINGOVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MON. THE ONSET OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OFSHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WRN CWA BEFORE 12Z. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON MONWITH A 1000 MB LOW REACHING NE WI OR ADJACENT UPPER MI BY 00Z TUE.STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ON A DEVELOPING LLJIS EXPECTED FOR MON WITH THE NRN CWA AND CENTRAL WI EXPECTED TOSEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF TSTORMS. A STRONG N-S MLCAPE GRADIENT WILLSET UP OVER THE SRN HALF OF WI WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOWLEVEL SHEAR AS A 70 KT 500 MB WIND MAXIMUM MOVES EAST ACROSSCENTRAL WI. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER MLCAPEVALUES CAN CLIMB ABOVE 1000 J/KG. A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK ISCURRENTLY FCST BY SPC. SOME SVR STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EVEN WITHLOW CAPE GIVEN THE LIFT AND STRONG WIND SHEAR BUT HIGHER CAPEVALUES WOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITIES OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SVRSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUTFLASH FLOODING TOWARD CENTRAL WI DUE TO REPEATED ROUNDS OFCONVECTION AND PWS OF 1.5-1.7 INCHES. THE CONVECTION AND SVRPOTENTIAL WILL CARRY INTO MON EVE WITH THE COLD FROPA. NWLY SFCWINDS TO FOLLOW INTO TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WILATER ON TUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Non-severe related but regarding Monday... with how strong the background wind field is, could be quite windy outside of storms, perhaps borderline advisory criteria in some spots especially with enough insolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Looking better and better for a regional severe weather outbreak Monday into Monday night. Shear is f'ing redonkulous and so is CAPE for that matter. A good portion of the western and central great lakes are probably going to get clocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 All I can say is that the Crazy Uncle NAM fell of his rocker again. If that verifies a significant severe event is likely. Crazy shear and high CAPE makes for a very volatile environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wow nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Parameters off the charts once more. If you look at H7 vertical velocities and then look at 2m temp for the isobars, there's a secondary 998mb low in that same area. Probably more convective feedback this run, backing the winds more at low levels, therefore increasing the veering of the winds and helicities in general..Though not unrealistic, i think it's a little over-done.Even with the winds veered at the surface later, the sounding still shows a very impressive environment from a storm relative point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Looking better and better for a regional severe weather outbreak Monday into Monday night. Shear is f'ing redonkulous and so is CAPE for that matter. A good portion of the western and central great lakes are probably going to get clocked. One thing we can say is that a lack of capping probably won't be an issue. Total powderkeg...storms should go severe very quickly in that environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 One thing we can say is that a lack of capping probably won't be an issue. Total powderkeg...storms should go severe very quickly in that environment. It would be a situation where a shower would pop up and drop a tornado in 10 mins like on 4/27/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 That NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Discrete convection along front in impressive environment between 0-3z Monday evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 And 0-3km EHI at 10 at 00z for nw IN and ne IL. Okaaaaay.. And 0-1km at 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 Discrete convection along front in impressive environment between 0-3z Monday evening.. namCGP_700_vvel_051.gif Holy ****, that is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 00z NAM Sharpy soundings are intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Discrete convection along front in impressive environment between 0-3z Monday evening.. namCGP_700_vvel_051.gif 4km has a broken line of discrete cells at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Somewhat random but does anyone recall July 2, 2000? Are there any major similarities in the synoptic setup from that event to this upcoming one on Monday? That was one of the more intense evenings of convective action I can remember, and it included a tornado moving through the south side of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wow things are looking to be crazy here in NE IL if things come out as the models are predicted. Hopefully things won't stay discrete into our area or else we're looking to be in a lot of trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 All I can say is that the Crazy Uncle NAM fell of his rocker again. If that verifies a significant severe event is likely. Crazy shear and high CAPE makes for a very volatile environment. Honestly im not sure if someone could modify an environment to look this insane and perfect... 00z 4KM NAM and 18z GFS are both in agreement with the NAM as well in progging insane parameters: SCP's of 30+ across a large area, and STP's >10 as well, and obviously high cape and very high shear, lets see what the 00z GFS and ECMWF do.. If the euro shifts to the more aggressive solution like the other three, we could see at least a MDT by either D2 update tomorrow, but more so the 1730z update probably... High Risk maybe even? But seems like SPC would wait till the day of due to concerns of capping and morning convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wonder if we'll get a day 2 MDT. 0z NAM alone is beyond a scary solution IMO the more I look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 4K NAM is even more impressive at 22Z across far S WI/ N IL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I think this Monday Setup, looks like the best setup in several years for a Derecho IMBY, and well if it doesn't go linear so much, some random supercells would be welcome as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Monday's event looks to be a fairly widespread event as well. Assuming the cap breaks further southwest as many of the models are now indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I think this Monday Setup, looks like the best setup in several years for a Derecho IMBY, and well if it doesn't go linear so much, some random supercells would be welcome as well. Lets hope it goes linear REAL FAST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wonder if we'll get a day 2 MDT. 0z NAM alone is beyond a scary solution IMO the more I look at it. as is....I think if the 12Z continues it should be there for the afternoon update....if euro follows similar suit (given it's tendencies in general) tonight, then we could see it on the first round later tonight. Things seems to be lining up thus far for a possible dangerous situation...besides the obvious "caveats" that come with mid summer instability and spring time set ups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Much more geographically extensive area at risk than April 9, 2015 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 On paper, Monday certainly looks high-end based off of the model solutions, particularly the GFS and NAM. With that said, there are caveats. The 00z RGEM develops an MCS over the Dakotas early Monday morning and that rolls into Wisconsin by Midday. Although you'd think that would have more of an effect on instability, the RGEM still shows strong heating across southern Wisconsin. The precip fields don't appear to show intense convection during the afternoon though. Edit: The 00z GFS shows a similar MCS scenario. Not making a forecast by any means, but pointing out that observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helical Vortex Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Somewhat random but does anyone recall July 2, 2000? Are there any major similarities in the synoptic setup from that event to this upcoming one on Monday? That was one of the more intense evenings of convective action I can remember, and it included a tornado moving through the south side of the county. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20000702 I'm no expert (I don't take synoptic meteorology until the fall), but nothing stands out to me in terms of the synoptic setup. Here's a link if you'd like to examine some of the upper air analyses and discussions. I can't specifically recall it (I was six years old at that time), but most likely I staring out my bedroom window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I went through the list of high risk convective outlook days. Needless to say, it would be very unusual to see a high risk convective outlook issued primarily for a tornado threat this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Interesting for the Metro Detroiters, though we'd probably be on the far eastern fringe of the activity, is that the big Ford Fireworks show downtown along the Detroit River is at 10:06pm Monday night, where over a million people line up along the river on the US and Canadian side.That could get crazy if a derecho plows through shortly before or after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I went through the list of high risk convective outlook days. Needless to say, it would be very unusual to see a high risk convective outlook issued primarily for a tornado threat this late in the season. I wouldn't expect there to be a high risk for this threat, I'd say there will most likely be a moderate with a high damaging wind and moderate-high tornado risk if things turn out they way they look to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wonder if we'll get a day 2 MDT. 0z NAM alone is beyond a scary solution IMO the more I look at it. Would like to get yours and others opinions on the convective mode. To me, there's no overwhelming reason to think there will be a really quick transition to linear mode. Directional shear does become less as we go through the evening but the better forcing is well north / longer capping potential also makes one wonder about the coverage farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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