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June 22-23 Severe Weather Outbreak


Stebo

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SPC stays with ENH at 20Z... Another 2015 big time synoptic scale let down due to festering crapvection and an MCS. 

 

..SUMMARY  
 
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF INTENSE...DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...LARGE  
HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDWEST AND A  
PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
   
..UPPER MIDWEST AREA
 
 
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE FROM IA INTO NRN MO WHERE A  
WARM EML HAS ADVECTED ABOVE A RESERVOIR OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT  
ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENTLY  
DEVELOP SEWD. SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...BUT SOME  
UPSCALE GROWTH TO AN MCS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING.  
   
..ERN MN THROUGH NRN WI
 
 
REF SWOMCD 1121 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS AREA.  

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82/73 at Gary with a south wind gusting to 31mph.  I think potential is still there even with the overcast given the kinematics of this thing.

 

 

Feel better with southward extent from I-80, but extreme NW IN is/will be in closer proximity to the more unstable air. 

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I managed to get a little pea size hail from the last little cell that moved through CR.  The first storms this afternoon dropped large hail(1.5-2.5") a few miles north of me and this last cell dropped medium hail (up to 1") a mile or two south of me.  I picked up 0.88" of rain.  The continous backbuilding of cells along the outflow boundary has kept us in the 70s all day. We may be done with storms.

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The MCS completely screwed up the mass fields, now the low isn't forecast to get under 1000mb until well after midnight. Up until this afternoon the models were still consistently dropping it to around 995mb some even lower. Without the pressure falls that were forecast the wind field isn't able to respond thus lowering the shear. Needless to say this is the biggest bust of the year thus far.

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Even then not terribly on board with the idea of strong convection developing in SE IA... Almost all convection to this point has been entirely junky and has gotten nowhere close to becoming surface based, lots of cloud cover across the area now due to crapvection as well. HRRR develops solid convection in the next few hours, and given strong/extreme instability and strong shear could still seem some pretty intense storms if they develop... with at least very large hail and destructive winds, and a few tornadoes, so will see soon what is to come of this. Have little faith in the HRRR btw.

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