stormtrackertf Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Mostly cloudy and warm here in downtown Detroit at the fireworks festival. Not a massive crowd yet but this could get real interesting here in a couple hours... They just announced they will be starting the show an hour early at 9:05pm...which seems kinda pointless to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Just had a 3" tree snap in half in my backyard. Wind still roaring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 86/76 at DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Just had a 3" tree snap in half in my backyard. Wind still roaring. 2hr pressure falls of 6mb in NE. IL/SE. WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 A certain tweet about the HRRR showing a cold pool last night was largely discounted. It's important to always consider possible red flags. Maybe next time the other red tagger that heavily downed the tweet won't be so foolish, but given his history...I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 We've been stuck under a dense canopy with occasional drizzle even, since the late morning storm. Also stuck in the upper 60s. OFB isn't too far south, so even with things looking a bit grim I'm not throwing in the towel for the QCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Maybe next time the other red tagger that heavily downed the tweet won't be so foolish, but given his history...I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Iowa convection has really weakened. SPC expected it would because they said it was from a remnant LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 LOT... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL215 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...211 PM CDTA COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO CONTINUES TOWARD SEVERE WEATHERPOTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE TWO KEY PLAYERSWILL BE A 1.) AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND 2.)STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICHMAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT NEAR AND ALONG IT.THE EARLIER MCS HAS WEAKENED BUT LEFT AN IMPRINT OF CLOUD COVER ANDAN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BOTH OF THESE HAVE SLOWED WARMING OVER THEFORECAST AREA...HOWEVER TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY/LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF I-80 PER HAND ANALYSIS/ REMAINS A VERY MOISTAIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS OF 73F AND HIGHER AND STRONGINSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG PER 18Z DVN RAOB DATA ANDRAP MESOANALYSIS...AND THIS AIR MASS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD.IN EASTERN IA...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND DVN RADAR DATA HAVE INDICATEDRETURN FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME STORMS HAVEFESTERED ON THE VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EASTERN IA.THESE HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND IN THE PAST HOUR AS THEY MOVEINTO WHAT IS TEMPORARILY WORKED OVER AIR.EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORM RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUEWITHIN THE WARM MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN IA WITHPOSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL GROWING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY4-5 PM. GREATER PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ON THE SYNOPTICSCALE WILL LIKELY HELP REGIONAL STORM COVERAGE LATER INTO THEAFTERNOON AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND THE NEXT UPPER/MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SDTRANSLATES EASTWARD. STORM STRUCTURES SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT FIRSTAND THEN GROWING INTO BOWING TYPE STRUCTURES GIVEN THE PRONOUNCEDMID-LEVEL FLOW. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS ACTIVITYWILL WANT TO DEVELOP.DO EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERNWI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDPOTENTIAL IN ANY OF THE MORE ROBUST STORMS. TO THE SOUTH...MAINLYSOUTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR...STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILLLIKELY BE GREATER GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND JUST THE MORE POTENTAIR MASS ADVECTING INTO THIS AREA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOMEROOTED MORE SO IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. WINDAND HAIL THREATS WILL DEFINITELY BE EVIDENT WITH THE MOREORGANIZED STORMS. IN ADDITION...STORMS MAY WANT TO RIDE ALONG THISBOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY...AND THAT MAY FAVOR ALOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY.THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF ANY ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP PRIORTO THE LIKELY LARGER MCS/DEVELOPING MCS BY EARLY EVENING. THE MOSTFAVORED TIMING FOR ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE 5PM-10 PM FROM WEST TO EAST.MTF/RC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Getting some quality boomage from this festering zombie-vection rolling in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Low level clouds racing north again...after a few hour break in doing so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 SBCAPE as of 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Getting some quality boomage from this festering zombie-vection rolling in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Storms really taking off back near Cedar Rapids. Tops pushing 50kft already. This is a little north of the OFB, but it's close enough it may be feeding on the pool of strong instability just south. Could be a sign of the beginning of the main show. Hawkeye killing it today. 2nd or 3rd hailer real close to CR. EDIT: And now it's severe warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Storms really taking off back near Cedar Rapids. Tops pushing 50kft already. This is a little north of the OFB, but it's close enough it may be feeding on the pool of strong instability just south. Could be a sign of the beginning of the main show. Hawkeye killing it today. 2nd or 3rd hailer real close to CR. happy for the guy, he was screw hole city for a while there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Sun came out, temp shot up to 82. Now towers going up west of the TC overlooking the Mpls skyline. Goes to show what even a little sun can do in this environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Storms really taking off back near Cedar Rapids. Tops pushing 50kft already. This is a little north of the OFB, but it's close enough it may be feeding on the pool of strong instability just south. Could be a sign of the beginning of the main show. Hawkeye killing it today. 2nd or 3rd hailer real close to CR. EDIT: And now it's severe warned. Pretty small storm but intense.. VIL is nearly maxed out and it is racing eastward at 55mph... into the same environment that the previous convection basically died in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 VWP from DVN is pretty darn nasty right now. Via Quincy: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIIRVYzWwAAeTBT.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Impressive shear, both directional and speed, evident in the latest Davenport, IA VAD profiler data: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 KTDZ gusted to 57mph with a storm that developed an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Seems like NW and NC IL haven't had any sun while Extreme NE IL has had sun for about 20-40 minutes where temps jumped 7-8 degrees here. Now back under the clouds from the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Betting we will still see ENH for the 2000z SPC update. Earlier I said they set themselves up to go MDT if they needed too, but at this time, they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 train setting up on the northern edge of the QCs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I had just looked at that VAD and was about to post it lol... VERY impressive turning, with backed (near easterly at 1KFT) near surface and low level flow.. Probably is right along the OFB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 What's your best guess on the threat for LOT? Nothing or south section?Greatest threat roughly along/south of a Mendota to DeMotte line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Seems like NW and NC IL haven't had any sun while Extreme NE IL has had sun for about 20-40 minutes where temps jumped 7-8 degrees here. Now back under the clouds from the convection. the infamous 25 minutes of filtered sun of 6/22/15 never forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 train setting up on the northern edge of the QCs Actually growing a bit concerned for this area, and the QC after seeing that VAD profile, combined with quickly developing sups. OFB is moving back north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Greatest threat roughly along/south of a Mendota to DeMotte line. RPM is basically showing the same thing. Complex rolls through around 9:30 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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