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June 22-23 Severe Weather Outbreak


Stebo

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Mostly cloudy and warm here in downtown Detroit at the fireworks festival. Not a massive crowd yet but this could get real interesting here in a couple hours...

They just announced they will be starting the show an hour early at 9:05pm...which seems kinda pointless to me.

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A certain tweet about the HRRR showing a cold pool last night was largely discounted. It's important to always consider possible red flags.

Maybe next time the other red tagger that heavily downed the tweet won't be so foolish, but given his history...I doubt it.

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LOT...

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
215 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
211 PM CDT

A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO CONTINUES TOWARD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE TWO KEY PLAYERS
WILL BE A 1.) AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND 2.)
STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT NEAR AND ALONG IT.

THE EARLIER MCS HAS WEAKENED BUT LEFT AN IMPRINT OF CLOUD COVER AND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BOTH OF THESE HAVE SLOWED WARMING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
/LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF I-80 PER HAND ANALYSIS/ REMAINS A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS OF 73F AND HIGHER AND STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG PER 18Z DVN RAOB DATA AND
RAP MESOANALYSIS...AND THIS AIR MASS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD.
IN EASTERN IA...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND DVN RADAR DATA HAVE INDICATED
RETURN FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME STORMS HAVE
FESTERED ON THE VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EASTERN IA.
THESE HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND IN THE PAST HOUR AS THEY MOVE
INTO WHAT IS TEMPORARILY WORKED OVER AIR.

EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORM RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN THE WARM MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN IA WITH
POSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL GROWING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY
4-5 PM. GREATER PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE WILL LIKELY HELP REGIONAL STORM COVERAGE LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND THE NEXT UPPER/MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SD
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. STORM STRUCTURES SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT FIRST
AND THEN GROWING INTO BOWING TYPE STRUCTURES GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL WANT TO DEVELOP.

DO EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
WI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL IN ANY OF THE MORE ROBUST STORMS. TO THE SOUTH...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR...STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY BE GREATER GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND JUST THE MORE POTENT
AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO THIS AREA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
ROOTED MORE SO IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. WIND
AND HAIL THREATS WILL DEFINITELY BE EVIDENT WITH THE MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS. IN ADDITION...STORMS MAY WANT TO RIDE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY...AND THAT MAY FAVOR A
LOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY.
THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF ANY ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP PRIOR
TO THE LIKELY LARGER MCS/DEVELOPING MCS BY EARLY EVENING. THE MOST
FAVORED TIMING FOR ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE 5
PM-10 PM FROM WEST TO EAST.

MTF/RC

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Storms really taking off back near Cedar Rapids.  Tops pushing 50kft already.  This is a little north of the OFB, but it's close enough it may be feeding on the pool of strong instability just south.  Could be a sign of the beginning of the main show.  

 

Hawkeye killing it today.  2nd or 3rd hailer real close to CR.

 

EDIT:  And now it's severe warned.

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Storms really taking off back near Cedar Rapids.  Tops pushing 50kft already.  This is a little north of the OFB, but it's close enough it may be feeding on the pool of strong instability just south.  Could be a sign of the beginning of the main show.  

 

Hawkeye killing it today.  2nd or 3rd hailer real close to CR.

 

 

happy for the guy, he was screw hole city for a while there

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Storms really taking off back near Cedar Rapids.  Tops pushing 50kft already.  This is a little north of the OFB, but it's close enough it may be feeding on the pool of strong instability just south.  Could be a sign of the beginning of the main show.  

 

Hawkeye killing it today.  2nd or 3rd hailer real close to CR.

 

EDIT:  And now it's severe warned.

Pretty small storm but intense.. VIL is nearly maxed out and it is racing eastward at 55mph... into the same environment that the previous convection basically died in. 

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