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June 22-23 Severe Weather Outbreak


Stebo

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I'm not sure if Im the only one who still think we should get a moderate haha. If we could get those extreme winds from the MCS, I think it almost points to the setup being on point as long as these could get out of here by around 1 pm (which they should easily)

Extensive cloud cover and bouts of showers/storms extend all the way back to C. Iowa...We're not clearing out by 1, not even close.

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Extensive cloud cover and bouts of showers/storms extend all the way back to C. Iowa...We're not clearing out by 1, not even close.

Maybe 1:30-2, the extended cloud cover is moving south east, not due east where the whole thing will go over N IL

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SPC still going with firing after the departure of the MCS

 

STRONG CAPPING IS EVIDENT ACROSS ERN NEB BASED ON MORNING RAOBS
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE RISK W OF THE MO RIVER...BUT NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY WITH TIME ACROSS IA -- LIKELY INVOF THE
COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION INITIALLY. STORMS SHOULD
SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD OR ESEWD WITH TIME...MOVING INTO NRN IL ALONG
WITH RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...THOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS SEEMS LIKELY WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY SUGGEST A TRANSITION
TOWARD MAINLY WIND/HAIL RISK.

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Still a huge plume of unspoiled, and very steep lapse rates poised upwind of the risk area.  The MCS is hauling ass to the east.  I think we'll see very rapid re-destabilization by mid-afternoon ahead of the front in Iowa, and that will quickly transition eastward.  LLJ really never shuts off today, and will help re- feed the BL.  Certainly not giving up on this yet lol.

2yjri92.jpg

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I agree with this. ALEK, let's revisit June of 2010 and 2011. We had two very similar setups, with full cloud cover. We had no power for 6 days afterwards.

Yeah, I am not saying it is going to jump to clear skies by any means. However there very well will be filtered sunshine as the cirrus deck thins out. With the type of lapse rates out there, it won't take much warming to jack the instability up very quickly.

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