June 22-23 Severe Weather Outbreak

[wisconsinwx]

starting off warm downtown at 76 with filtered sun.

 

effective warm front right at our doorstep now so flow should ramp up in a big way shortly

 

As the expert prognosticator, what do you think will happen to those cells in SE Minnesota/NE Iowa out ahead of the main line?  They are moving pretty slowly compared to the now ragged northern end of the line behind it.

[A-L-E-K]

As the expert prognosticator, what do you think will happen to those cells in SE Minnesota/NE Iowa out ahead of the main line?  They are moving pretty slowly compared to the now ragged northern end of the line behind it.

 

they will get absorbed into the main line which will eventually bow out (albiet in a diurnally weakened state) across S. WI and N. IL

 

i expect re-strengthening of this feature just east across far S. MI, N. IN and perhaps into OH.

[blue60007]

MCS is well fed. Gusts upward of 70 mph coming in well behind the main line in SW MN.

[Gilbertfly]

starting off warm downtown at 76 with filtered sun.

effective warm front right at our doorstep now so flow should ramp up in a big way shortly

Dat flow indeed just picked considerably...just visually though with the bulky LL clouds...no precise measurment

[Chargers09]

Trends look good IMO for two rounds. This MCS should clear us even in SE MI with plenty of time to destabilize once again.

[Gilbertfly]

radar indicated "kink tor" along the line northeast of fort dodge...

[A-L-E-K]

Trends look good IMO for two rounds. This MCS should clear us even in SE MI with plenty of time to destabilize once again.

 

 

i'd be leery of 2 rounds in the northern/eastern risk area, back edge of the MCV is still nearly 600 miles from the western DTX cwa...forward motion should accelerate but still that's a long ways to go

[Chargers09]

i'd be leery of 2 rounds in the northern/eastern risk area, back edge of the MCV is still nearly 600 miles from the western DTX cwa...forward motion should accelerate but still that's a long ways to go

Definitely. Let me clarify, though. I was speaking about the second round coming from the WI/IL area. I'd imagine things grow upscale eventually from that direction and propogate eastward once again later in the day/towards the evening.

[Harry Perry]

FWIW... I just walked through the garage to open one of the bay doors. I opened it and walked outside and It was like walking into a sauna. The air inside the garage is crisp and cool (shut the garage up at 11PM last night).

I think it's safe to say DPs are on the rise.

[oldlogin]

Just saw a LSR from Sheldon Ia.. AWOS showed a 95mph  peak... Hanger destroyed, damage to planes and damage reported on the North side of Sheldon

[A-L-E-K]

12z update from LOT...sounds like they are still low confidence with round 2

 

THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS TAKEN SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN MN AND
NORTHERN IA AND IT IS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD NORTHERN IL AND
SOUTHERN WI. THINKING THE COMPLEX WILL STAY TOGETHER AND SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN IL LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE
DAMAGING WIND. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT THE STORMS MAY FESTER
OVER AND AROUND THE TERMINALS LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

WINDS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP AND EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 30-35 KT THIS AFTN. A LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST AND EXPECTING ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG
ITS COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS. THIS MORNINGS ROUND OF STORMS MAY
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

[Geos]

Growing increasingly confident that the mcs will be the main show, especially east. Despite unfavorable diurnal timing, lots of support remains in place and it should remain healthy enough to reflare with better heating. Could see an impressive wind threat develop as it rides ese and eventually se along the effective warm front.

further west, southern outflow should set off some huge hp supes

 

+1.

Thinking the same thing.

I think there might be some strong storms later though. MCS might decrease the large hail and tornado threat for far northern IL and S WI.

 

71/68 currently.

 

That's one big cold pool forming on the backside.

 

[Powerball]

i'd be leery of 2 rounds in the northern/eastern risk area, back edge of the MCV is still nearly 600 miles from the western DTX cwa...forward motion should accelerate but still that's a long ways to go

Even action from the first round is still not a 100% lock.

It depends on how fast the instability gradient moves northward, and also if the MCS can maintain itself (via a cold pool) despite outrunning the better dynamics.

[A-L-E-K]

Eve action from the first round is still not a 100% lock.

It depends on how fast the instability gradient moves northward, and also if the MCS can maintain itself (via a cold pool) despite outrunning the better dtnamics.

 

 

true, complete shutout still on the table for YBY

[Chicago WX]

New MD

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN AND
EASTERN IA...WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AND SRN WI AND PART OF NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328...329...330...

VALID 221242Z - 221415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
328...329...330...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EAST-CENTRAL MN...NORTHEAST IA AND WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST WI.
STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT FROM
SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF THE BOW
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE N/NWLY WIND GUSTS REMAIN A POTENTIAL
THREAT ATTENDANT TO A WAKE LOW WEST OF THE BOW.

A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF THE BOW AS IT SHOULD PROGRESS
E/SEWD THIS MORNING INTO PARTS OF ERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN IL.

DISCUSSION...AT 12Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPLEX
DISPLAY OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN IA
AND DEVELOPING EWD INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI. A BOW
EXTENDED FROM NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO SSWWD INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 50-60
KT. A 50 KT SWLY LLJ AS SAMPLED BY THE DMX/OAX WSR-88D/S WILL
RESULT IN FURTHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A FEED OF
MODERATELY-STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY MCS.

A VERY STRONG /AROUND 90 KT/ AND DESCENDING REAR-INFLOW JET AS
OBSERVED EARLIER WITH THE FSD WSR-88D INDICATED WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE THE SEVERE AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE BOW.
OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR A WARM FRONT
IN SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO SWRN AND SRN WI THIS MORNING AS
THIS FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE PORTION
OF THE BOW IN NORTH-CENTRAL IA TO SPREAD INTO ERN IA/SRN WI AND NRN
IL AFTER 14Z...A NEW WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS MORNING...SOUTH
THROUGH EAST OF WW 330.

..PETERS.. 06/22/2015

[Powerball]

Looks like we'll have at least a couple hours of clear skies. That can't hurt.

Air did actually feel "storm's a brewin'" like this morning, despite dew around 60*F and temps in the low/mid 60s.

[RCNYILWX]

I'm here at LOT. Tough call on the morning MCS. 850-300 mb mean winds and Corfidi vectors argue that maybe our northern tier gets clipped. But boundary layed out, assuming it doesn't get completely washed out, could make things interesting later. 11z HRRR actually brings a beastly looking cell into northern IL early afternoon on trailing portion of the complex.

Edit: 12z HRRR is looking like it's doing the same thing.

[A-L-E-K]

frankthetank is going to get wake low'd

[Chicago WX]

New day 1 outlook expanded the enhanced risk a bit further south (includes LAF now, barely). Possible later upgrade to Moderate Risk mentioned. 

 

 

 

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK FROM
THE UPPER MS AND LOWER MO VALLEYS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
THE UPPER MS AND LOWER MO VALLEYS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF INTENSE...DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...STRONG
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE PROBABLE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

A POLAR-BRANCH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL
AMPLIFY AND GRADUALLY ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED
BY A 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND CORRIDOR OF 50-100 M/12-HR
HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
WHILE DEVELOPING FROM SWRN MN INTO ERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC BY
12Z/TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW ATTENDANT TO EARLY-DAY STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE NWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MO
VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS.

...UPPER MIDWEST EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY...

A COMPLEX-STRUCTURED MCS ONGOING OVER SRN MN/NRN IA WILL CONTINUE
EWD ALONG THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT THROUGH PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN WI
AND NRN IL THIS MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY INTO LOWER MI BY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED MCV WITH THE FSD VAD INDICATING
60-80 KT WINDS WITHIN THE DESCENDING REAR-INFLOW JET AT 1 KM AGL.
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FEEDING INTO
THIS SYSTEM ALONG A 40-50+ KT SWLY LLJ...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL TO PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE LATER TODAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND DESTABILIZES.

DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE COLD POOL GENERATED BY THE MCS...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. A NUMBER OF
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL WI
INTO N-CNTRL/NERN IA AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WHILE THE CHARACTER OF THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR...BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE QUITE STRONG /I.E. EFFECTIVE VALUES OF BULK SHEAR AND SRH OF
50-60 KT AND 300-400 M2 PER S2...RESPECTIVELY/ AND SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY
STRONG/...NAMELY OVER CNTRL/SRN WI INTO NERN IA AND NRN IL.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY FROM THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING THE EARLY-DAY MCS FROM
PORTIONS OF IA INTO NRN IL. AND WHILE A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF
3000-4000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
EXIST...PRONOUNCED CAPPING /SEE THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING/ MAY BECOME
PROBLEMATIC TO STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SETTLE SWD. AS SUCH...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL EXIST GIVEN DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE.

BY THIS EVENING...ONGOING STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A MIXED-MODE MCS /I.E. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
BOWS/ WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO SPREADING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI AND PORTIONS
OF IL...IND...OH. THIS MCS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE IN LATER DAY ONE
OUTLOOKS...ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS REGARDING THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

[A-L-E-K]

I'm here at LOT. Tough call on the morning MCS. 850-300 mb mean winds and Corfidi vectors argue that maybe our northern tier gets clipped. But boundary layed out, assuming it doesn't get completely washed out, could make things interesting later. 11z HRRR actually brings a beastly looking cell into northern IL early afternoon on trailing portion of the complex.

 

i think the southern part of the bow crosses right over the heart of the metro...if you're right and it only skirts the northern fringe this afternoon becomes much more interesting. I fully expect to see a beautiful shelf from a weakening bow lout my window later this morning.

[A-L-E-K]

nice write up with the new D1

 

[hawkeye_wx]

A couple storms along the surging warm front woke me up early this morning.  The first got me, but was modest and pretty small, the second one had large hail and just missed to the north of the city.  The big MCS should largely miss north as well.

[Chargers09]

Newest day 1 looks pretty great. Mentioned upgrade to mod once details are ironed out.

[Gilbertfly]

hatched tor expanded decently also...

 

initiation of the stronger storms later have always been progged in and around 00z with the strengthening slp....I think tonight will provide a fine show still...regardless of the MCS

[RCNYILWX]

i think the southern part of the bow crosses right over the heart of the metro...if you're right and it only skirts the northern fringe this afternoon becomes much more interesting. I fully expect to see a beautiful shelf from a weakening bow lout my window later this morning.

Not seeing much evidence of southeastward bowing yet. Also can't rule out it either weakening over us or being prevented from developing further south as the EML gets advected in.

[Harry Perry]

Looks like we'll have at least a couple hours of clear skies. That can't hurt.

Air did actually feel "storm's a brewin'" like this morning, despite dew around 60*F and temps in the low/mid 60s.

I can't believe it. This is the first morning in weeks that features full sun - good for later on.

[on_wx]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
836 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015  
   
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
 
..REMARKS..  
 
0831 AM NON-TSTM WND GST INDEPENDENCE 42.47N 91.89W  
06/22/2015 M93.90 MPH BUCHANAN IA EMERGENCY MNGR  
 
HIGH SCHOOL ON WEST SIDE OF INDEPENDENCE MEASURED  
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 93.9 MPH.  

[A-L-E-K]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  

836 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015  

   

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

   

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

 

..REMARKS..  

 

0831 AM NON-TSTM WND GST INDEPENDENCE 42.47N 91.89W  

06/22/2015 M93.90 MPH BUCHANAN IA EMERGENCY MNGR  

 

HIGH SCHOOL ON WEST SIDE OF INDEPENDENCE MEASURED  

SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 93.9 MPH.  

 

 

hell yeah

[MN Transplant]

MPX talking about a wake low trailing behind the existing MCS.  High wind warning up - Worthington, MN (along 90 in the SW part of the state) went to 74mph .

[RyanDe680]

Looks like the winds will bow this line out enough to clip the city....

 

I'd say 12-1pm, hopefully gone by 2 in order to recover nicely.  Could make for a good setup come 5-6pm