ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Ew... looks like the past 2 HRRR runs have started to hint at some MCS backbuilding in N IL Good night all... hope for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 As far as the wind, maybe there's a little doubt about the extent of convective coverage? Only if the MCS dies early and the cold front stuff remains discrete, in which case wouldn't you want to up the hail/tor potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Updated day 1 SPC outlook: That northern part might need cut back some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 That northern part might need cut back someAgreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 71 people in here at almost 1:30 central/2:30 eastern...not bad considering we're not underway in our area yet. We've seen this movie many times...the initial outlook is conservative only to ramp up later as trends become clearer. Maybe it will happen this time. Until then, keep it real and get some rest folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kystormspotter Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It would be a situation where a shower would pop up and drop a tornado in 10 mins like on 4/27/11. I asked in another thread if that is what happened on May 31, 2013 with the El Reno "explode" mode, no clouds to tornado on the ground in 10 minutes. Did this happen on both because I don't remember hearing 4/27/11 having it but I have yet to fully analyze that. Interesting for the Metro Detroiters, though we'd probably be on the far eastern fringe of the activity, is that the big Ford Fireworks show downtown along the Detroit River is at 10:06pm Monday night, where over a million people line up along the river on the US and Canadian side. That could get crazy if a derecho plows through shortly before or after. I wasn't aware of the Ford Fireworks Show being on the same night (until early yesterday), dang! That could be very bad, the media in Detroit doesn't seem to be concerned based on the 11:00 pm news cycle. I'm sure now that I've said this nothing will happen *wink wink*. Some of the NAM soundings for lower MI at 0Z Monday are absolutely incredible with 0-1km SRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 and CAPEs over 4000 J/kg. 0-3km EHI is about 22, no big deal. Wouldn't an EHI of 22 be the highest ever seen? As far as I've read, 4/27/11 had 21 (or 27?) as its highest but I'm not confident on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kystormspotter Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Here is a sounding gif from south central Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 60 knots of shear, 2500 to 3000 cape, every parameter is basically maxed out and they pull the hatched. I understand that the MCS is a complicating factor, but I would imagine the atmosphere will recover in time given the dynamics in place. eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Well this would be a giant buzzkill: https://twitter.com/stormchaserQ/status/612842934740725760 Well derrrrp. That's because the HRRR is ACTIVELY CONVECTING RIGHT ON TOP OF CHICAGO at 1pm. Whoever is following that guy, do yourself a favor and mute him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The wind field is strong enough such that pretty much anything rooted in the boundary layer would have decent potential to produce significant wind. The shear for tonight is strong enough such that insane rotation should yield at least a low potential for sig hail. The lack of hatching sort of blew my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 06Z NAM/ 4K NAM remain consistent in showing a particularly volatile environment across S WI/N IL and MI this afternoon and evening. 4K NAM and NAM also continued wih their solutions of a string of supercells along the CF by 21-00Z. The 06Z RAP also shows something somewhat similar, and the 06Z HRRR shows instability FLOODING IN behind the MCS that it advertises.. And shows development along the CF across WI/IA.. Looks like show time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 6z 4km NAM initialized the ongoing MCS well but kills it off a bit quicker than i think is realistic...by the time it gets close to my area, destabilization will have been underway already for a few hours. either way, like i said yesterday, not at all surprised to see the focus shifting south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Well derrrrp. That's because the HRRR is ACTIVELY CONVECTING RIGHT ON TOP OF CHICAGO at 1pm. Whoever is following that guy, do yourself a favor and mute him. im not sure what about that is unrealistic to you, we've seen this happen more than a few times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spleimling93 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Possible Derecho forming.. no? warned for 100 mph wind gusts in SD i can only imagine it getting stronger as it moves eastward with the sun coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Right now for MI I'd lean towards that complex clocking us between 1-4 p.m. today, then maybe a second round forming behind that starting in SW Mi around 6 p.m. this evening. Ordinarily I'd say no way to anything else happening behind such a big MCS, but dynamics might just be good enough to overcome our typical climo. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 the HRRR actually looks to have a good handle right now...it takes the MCS through Chicago (with some nice looking cells) but the recovery is ultra rapid...the DKB area goes from nearly zero sbcape in wake of the MCS to nearly 4000 in just 3 hours this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 im not sure what about that is unrealistic to you, we've seen this happen more than a few times It wasn't unrealistic at all. The idiot on twitter was making a big deal about there being 0 j/kg cape in the HRRR. That's because the HRRR was convecting. That's the whole point of convection. The modeled exhaustion of instability was completely misinterpreted by twitter man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Right now for MI I'd lean towards that complex clocking us between 1-4 p.m. today, then maybe a second round forming behind that starting in SW Mi around 6 p.m. this evening. Ordinarily I'd say no way to anything else happening behind such a big MCS, but dynamics might just be good enough to overcome our typical climo. We'll see. I agree regarding recovery potential. The fact that the MCS will hit us at all is already evidence that climo is not in play. It should turn southeast and die, but the synoptic scale is evolving just as fast as the MCS is propagating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It wasn't unrealistic at all. The idiot on twitter was making a big deal about there being 0 j/kg cape in the HRRR. That's because the HRRR was convecting. That's the whole point of convection. The modeled exhaustion of instability was completely misinterpreted by twitter man. That's what I get for not reading the thread from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It wasn't unrealistic at all. The idiot on twitter was making a big deal about there being 0 j/kg cape in the HRRR. That's because the HRRR was convecting. That's the whole point of convection. The modeled exhaustion of instability was completely misinterpreted by twitter man. "That idiot on Twitter" is also a Met who posts here (who goes by the name Quincy). So with all due respect, I don't think he knows any less than you do about the potential of this setup. And I also don't see anything wrong with differing perspectives and opinions amongst Mets. IMO, his concerns are just as legit as not only a few convection-bearing models show, but we've seen it happen before many times locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Mcs looks great this morning, healthy waa wing and all. Don't sleep on the flood threat as hard hit i80 corridor could see multiple heavy rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I would think this is pretty much a slam dunk. If nothing else the morning MCS will likely be worth that. Or they just keep the enhanced risk. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Well, Gino seems to think in his morning AFD that because of veering winds the threat will be mainly linear straight line rather than tornadic in the immediate Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Growing increasingly confident that the mcs will be the main show, especially east. Despite unfavorable diurnal timing, lots of support remains in place and it should remain healthy enough to reflare with better heating. Could see an impressive wind threat develop as it rides ese and eventually se along the effective warm front. further west, southern outflow should set off some huge hp supes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 the HRRR actually looks to have a good handle right now...it takes the MCS through Chicago (with some nice looking cells) but the recovery is ultra rapid...the DKB area goes from nearly zero sbcape in wake of the MCS to nearly 4000 in just 3 hours this afternoon With the way the MCS is evolving, I have growing optimism for a sweet 1:2 punch of severe today. As long as the MCS doesn't back build, it should scream through with solid wind potential. Then we will play the "clear out and heat up" game, and wait for redevelopment along the boundaries left. Usual caveats apply, but this could be a prolific wind/hail day with significant flooding concerns for the I-88 corridor; which is already saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Legit wake low in SE SD this morning. FSD gusting to 63 kts this last hour. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Growing increasingly confident that the mcs will be the main show, especially east. Despite unfavorable diurnal timing, lots of support remains in place and it should remain healthy enough to reflare with better heating. Could see an impressive wind threat develop as it rides ese and eventually se along the effective warm front. further west, southern outflow should set off some huge hp supes +1. I was typing the same thoughts when you snuck this post in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yes and no with the mcs being the main show....with the progged strength of the stregnthening slp...shear can be compensated greatly under less than optimal destabaliztion. Some of the incredible explosiveness may be lost though, i.e. a pixel to a supercell in one scan From an obs standpoint locally...i am not seeing that mad rush of low level flow (yet) that i normally see mornings of "better" severe days...i sit at 71/71 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yes and no with the mcs being the main show....with the progged strength of the stregnthening slp...shear can be compensated greatly under less than optimal destabaliztion. Some of the incredible explosiveness may be lost though, i.e. a pixel to a supercell in one scan From an obs standpoint locally...i am not seeing that mad rush of low level flow (yet) that i normally see mornings of "better" severe days...i sit at 71/71 currently starting off warm downtown at 76 with filtered sun. effective warm front right at our doorstep now so flow should ramp up in a big way shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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