kystormspotter Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Hi red guidance is useless at this point. With a fast moving MCS, they get destroyed. This is a nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Storms firing on Iowa border right now...U mean central IA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The MCS is still in the area at the time, so lack of surface based instability makes sense in the context of that particular model.Ok yes that makes sense. See they made it seem like this was after the MCS has passed and there is 0 instability (aka NO RECOVERY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'm half asleep, waiting for 0600Z. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The NAM / GGEM / RGEM show similar solutions though, so it's not a total outlier. Ah, I don't check the long-range models when we're this close. That's my own ignorance I guess. My fault - it does impact Michigan on the RAP... but it's so late in doing so, I didn't think that was still the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Forecasting in the Lakes/MW would sure be easier if we didn't have to clean up the Plain's scraps all the time lol. Down this way I'm still thinking some monster HPs could pop along the trailing cold front, especially where any outflow boundaries from the early crap intersect the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Seems like any low,mid, or upper level clouds leftover would be blown out of the area very quickly as well due to the VERY strong wind fields at all levels... So residual clouds probably wont be much of a problem after it moves through, whenever that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Forecasting in the Lakes/MW would sure be easier if we didn't have to clean up the Plains scraps all the time lol. Down this way I'm still thinking some monster HPs could pop along the trailing cold front, especially where any outflow boundaries from the early crap intersect the front. Indeed, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Seems like any low,mid, or upper level clouds leftover would be blown out of the area very quickly as well due to the VERY strong wind fields at all levels... So residual clouds probably wont be much of a problem after it moves through, whenever that is.Yep, Im still rooting for the MDT hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'm half asleep, waiting for 0600Z. Yes. You're not alone...lol. Storms are maturing across ND/SD, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looks like the NSSL WRF tries to get some action on the warm front in MI/IN/OH too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Seems like any low,mid, or upper level clouds leftover would be blown out of the area very quickly as well due to the VERY strong wind fields at all levels... So residual clouds probably wont be much of a problem after it moves through, whenever that is. Did you ever think that those strong winds might cause ascent that results in more clouds forming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looks like the NSSL WRF tries to get some action on the warm front in MI/IN/OH too Wondered if there would be any potential there. Also the thought of one or more MCSs is not off the table as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looks like enhanced it remains for today's SPC outlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 No moderate on new day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 SPC stayed with ENH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 And Enhanced it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Why did they say a significant severe wind gust risk will likely unfold yet have no significant severe hatch on the wind probs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Kinda lame discussion.. lol ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN ND AND SD INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... CORRECTED FOR 10 PERCENT THUNDER LINE OVER NM ..SUMMARY CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE PROBABLE THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AN ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM COMPLEX ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WIND THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ..NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MT THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD WITHIN A BELT OF 50-70 KT MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO SD LATE TONIGHT. A RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESERVOIR LOCATED OVER THE LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY WILL ADVECT NWD ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG 50+ KT SLY LLJ AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER SD DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE 22/00Z N-CNTRL PLAINS RAOBS EXHIBITED AN EML WITH WARM H7 TEMPS /13 DEG C ON THE RAP RAOB/ AND IT SEEMS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. THE STRONG VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO OR TWO...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ONCE THE EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE OR ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THE WAA REGIME TONIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUST RISK WILL LIKELY UNFOLD. RECENT ITERATIONS OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF HIGH WIND WILL FOCUS OVER SD AND EWD INTO SWRN MN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ..LOWER MO AND OH VALLEY WEAK WAA ATOP A CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLD TO SCTD STORM RISK THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID EVENING AS A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER --CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS 70-75 DEG F-- RESIDES IN THE REGION. STRONG INSTABILITY MAY YIELD SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF A HAIL/WIND RISK TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. STRONGLY VEERED FLOW FARTHER NW OVER THE IA/MO VICINITY IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUST RISK INTO THE MID-LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. ..SMITH.. 06/22/2015 That's from yesterday's outlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEYEWD INTO LOWER MICH......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THEMIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO THENORTHEASTERN U.S.......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN PARTS OF FL INTO THEWRN CAROLINAS......SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BEINTENSE...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING ON MONDAY. THETHREAT FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND A STRONG TORNADO APPEAR TOBE GREATEST OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS....UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OFA SEVERE MCS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY PRIOR TOTHE START OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEREFORECAST IS TEMPERED OWING TO SEVERAL POTENTIALLY CRITICAL VARIABLES1) LONGEVITY/SEVERITY OF EARLY MORNING MCS FROM THE MS VALLEY INTOTHE GREAT LAKES 2) PREFERRED STORM MODE /SUPERCELL AND/OR BOW ECHO/.GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY...WILL DEFER SUBSTANTIAL CHANGESTO THE NEXT OUTLOOK.THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO LAKESUPERIOR DURING THE DAY WHILE A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED MCVEVOLVES FROM SQUALL LINE ACTIVITY LEADING INTO THE DAY 1 PERIOD. INTHE LOW LEVELS...A RESERVOIR OF RICH MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER TO MIDMO VALLEY WILL ADVECT N/NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKESDURING THE MORNING OWING PARTIALLY TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA. WHILEIT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING STORMS TO CONTINUE EWD FROM THEMID-UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...LESSENING BUOYANCYWITH EWD EXTENT SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY. A STRONGINFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY 16-18 G PER KG LOWEST100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS/ WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NRN IL/WI VICINITYALONG AND TO THE S OF TRAILING OUTFLOW AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHINGCOLD FRONT.IT IS PROBABLE STORM REDEVELOPMENT /SCTD COVERAGE/ WILL OCCUR LATERIN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKESOR ALONG THE FRONT LOCATED OVER CNTRL WI SW INTO ERN IA. THESTRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR /50-70 KT/ AND ITSORIENTATION TO THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH A VERY STRONG TO EXTREMELYBUOYANT /3000-4500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD PROMOTEEXPLOSIVE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND A SUPERCELLULAR MODE EARLY IN THESTORM LIFECYCLE. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THISACTIVITY...INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT HAIL/WIND/TORNADO. FURTHER STORMDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A MIXED MODEAND PROBABLY YIELD A WIND/HAIL THREAT BECOMING PREDOMINATE WITHTIME. STORMS SHOULD MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND INTO THE SRN AND LOWERGREAT LAKES STATES OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING ISOLD LARGEHAIL/WIND....PARTS OF THE SERN U.S...A FLATTENED MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PERSIST OFF THE SE U.S. ANDDIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. AVERY WEAK WIND PROFILE WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING PULSE STORMS WHICHWILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. STEEPENED LOW-LEVELLAPSE RATES OWING TO STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH PW1.75-2.0 INCHES WILL PROMOTE WATER LOADING WITH THE MORE INTENSECORES. WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BETHE PRIMARY THREAT AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EARLYEVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'm pretty floored there is no hatched wind risk anywhere, not to mention the lower tornado risk along the warm front where there should be a higher risk or at least equally to the WI zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 That's from yesterday's outlook... Yeah realized that.. whoops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 There's only so many words you can write when you have no idea what's gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Updated day 1 SPC outlook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'm pretty floored there is no hatched wind risk anywhere, not to mention the lower tornado risk along the warm front where there should be a higher risk or at least equally to the WI zone. This is pretty much the TAKE NO RISKS outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 10% hatched tornado in WI/northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Well, let's wait for the morning! Goodnight everybody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 "WILL DEFER SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE NEXT OUTLOOK" There's our moderate risk and hatced wind. They're waiting one more period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 This is pretty much the TAKE NO RISKS outlook SPC usually says it how it is... If there is a lot of uncertainty with what could be a potentially high-end event, this is what they do, defer to later updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 10% hatched tornado in WI/northern IL. 30% hatched area for hail also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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