AppsRunner Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 On the flip side, the OP NAM develops supercells along the warn front in MI, but the 4km NAM doesn't show much of anything. It's not the first time it's done that. I'm sure the SPC is going to have a fabulous time forecasting this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looking at 00Z Observed soundings from KDVN, KGRB, and KAPX seems like a significant amount of moistening will need to occur for us to get anywhere close to the environment advertised for tomorrow. Sounding at KDVN at 00Z depicted a pretty impressive dewpoint of 68, however upon further examination there is a very shallow layer of boundary layer moisture extending only to about 950mb. Soundings to the South/southwest across NE KS/ SW MO at KTOP and KSGF depict a very moist boundary layer with SFC dp's 70-75F, i'm assuming this will likely advect NE into the main area overnight and in the morning due to strong WAA... However further north at KGRB there was a SFC DP of 58, but with a much deeper layer of moisture extending to about 800mb or so, and a very similar sounding at least as far as moisture goes at KAPX with a DP of 58 and a moist layer to about 800mb... Anyways have some doubt about the northward extent of greater moisture into areas like GRB/APX due to the possibility of quite a large MCS moving through and south of the area, likely leaving behind residual cloud cover, and scouring out moisture out of at least N/C WI and MI, which would basically wipe away the entire northern half of the threat area. Thoughts? For those, like my self who have been looking at the NAM, you'll see that it initialized with a SFC DP at ~65 at GRB on the 00Z run, and has forecasted 65-70 SFC DP's at both GRB and APX as well as a very deep moist layer... Any thoughts? and please correct me if i'm wrong since I very well could/ will be. I was thinking that the whole day... the northern (and possibly central) Wisconsin might not get anywhere near the instability that is advertised by the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 I would be floored if part of the Enhanced isn't upgraded at 06z. Honestly if convective mode is realized and things unfold like the NAM/4kmNAM there is a possibility they even up to a High. Also if the MCS happens to go nuts tonight and looks to turn into a derecho they could go High at some point for wind. Needless to say, I don't expect the day 1 to be an enhanced risk only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 If it were me, I'd put the hatched tornado area in eastern WI/northeast IL/northern IN and over into Michigan. How much of Michigan is a bit tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I would be floored if part of the Enhanced isn't upgraded at 06z. Honestly if convective mode is realized and things unfold like the NAM/4kmNAM there is a possibility they even up to a High. Also if the MCS happens to go nuts tonight and looks to turn into a derecho they could go High at some point for wind. Needless to say, I don't expect the day 1 to be an enhanced risk only. I think if tonight's convective allowing models are all over the place for tomorrow, then maybe it stays at enhanced initially, but I'm leaning toward a moderate on the 6z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I would be floored if part of the Enhanced isn't upgraded at 06z. Honestly if convective mode is realized and things unfold like the NAM/4kmNAM there is a possibility they even up to a High. Also if the MCS happens to go nuts tonight and looks to turn into a derecho they could go High at some point for wind. Needless to say, I don't expect the day 1 to be an enhanced risk only. I don't think it's a question of "if" as far as an upgrade from enhanced, just when and where... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 That sounding is absolutely frightening. I have to assume that these parameters are greater than what was prevalent for the April 9 Rochelle EF-4. And the moderate risk issued then for nw IL after cycles of enhanced risk outlooks was for a much smaller geographical area than what we will see Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 If it were me, I'd put the hatched tornado area in eastern WI/northeast IL/northern IN and over into Michigan. How much of Michigan is a bit tricky. M-46 and south to I-94 as far east as US-23 or I-75. Btw Powerball mentioned the 12km NAM showing convection on the warm front in MI. If that were to occur it would be in a very volatile atmosphere especially if the MCS goes through central and northern Michigan, that would only enhance the warm front and locally increase an already highly sheared atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 That sounding is absolutely frightening. I have to assume that these parameters are greater than what was prevalent for the April 9 Rochelle EF-4. And the moderate risk issued then for nw IL after cycles of enhanced risk outlooks was for a much smaller geographical area than what we will see Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 FWIW 00Z GFS shows a large MCS barreling into S WI/ N IL at 15-18Z tomorrow... And then more development along the along the CF later.. Huge QPF bomb. And the 01Z and 02Z HRRR shows a similar scenario, just a tad further south with development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Wonderful write up here: http://illinoisstormchasers.com/severe-weather-outbreak-monday-june-22nd/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looks like its coming down to which model solutions you prefer... And if you believe the WAA will fuel the MCS, and if the MCS will be in N WI or S WI... OR if the EMl/cap will kill the MCS before it ruins anything. Lots of uncertainty regarding the MCS... IF it is ongoing and doesn't die, it'll likely be the big show and possibly be a destructive bow-echo, maybe even a derecho... But if its not and it dissipates or moves more so north than shown by the HRRR/GFS, etc... then we will likely see a significant severe/tornado threat across a wide area during the afternoon and into the night as shown by the 4KM NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looks like its coming down to which model solutions you prefer... And if you believe the WAA will fuel the MCS, and if the MCS will be in N WI or S WI... OR if the EMl/cap will kill the MCS before it ruins anything. Lots of uncertainty regarding the MCS... IF it is ongoing and doesn't it'll likely be the big show and possibly be a destructive bow-echo, maybe even a derecho... But if its not and it dissipates or moves more so north than shown by the HRRR/GFS, etc... then we will likely see a significant severe/tornado threat across a wide area as shown by the 4KM NAM. Ok but the thing we have to realize is either way we're looking a significant event, wether the derecho/MCS dissipates or not. I confidently think this warrants AT LEAST a moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 FWIW 00Z GFS shows a large MCS barreling into S WI/ N IL at 15-18Z tomorrow... And then more development along the along the CF later.. Huge QPF bomb. And the 02Z HRRR shows a similar scenario, just a tad further south with development. The problem with the GFS scenario is there is one lone supercell in SD right now and it is weakening, the GFS blows that up into the main MCS. Where as currently the main MCS looks to be in ND and the GFS takes that toward Duluth before dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Alrighty, time for me to voice my thoughts.... All I can say is, wow. Tomorrow, somewhere, if not in my back yard, will get rocked, just like Rochelle and Fairdale did. I expect it to be bad, if everything crumbles into place.... I will have to keep watching throughout the day, and eventually get ready to start storm spotting when the big stuff shows up, be it morning or afternoon... And, reporting in damage from our fire department. I am going to glue myself to this topic, it for sure warrants a watchin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The problem with the GFS scenario is there is one lone supercell in SD right now and it is weakening, the GFS blows that up into the main MCS. Where as currently the main MCS looks to be in ND and the GFS takes that toward Duluth before dying.The main MCS for areas further south will likely come from the activity currently in SW. ND/NW. SD/SE. MT/NE. WY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 NWS IWX's current thinking is everything will die before making it to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I was just reminded that Detroit's Freedom Festival fireworks are scheduled for tomorrow night. So we'll see if that's impacted. I'll be there at Hart Plaza all day tomorrow, could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The main MCS for areas further south will likely come from the activity currently in SW. ND/NW. SD/SE. MT/NE. WY. Exactly what I was about to say. Practically all-- if not all-- models have that activity blowing up into the main MCS that will propagate E/SE. GFS has generally a similar solution to most models with a larger and stronger MCS developing over-night/this morning over NC/C SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Just take a look at the current values for shear and helicity on the SPC meso page. You'll find a wide swath of intense values over a wide geographical area that will be advecting eastward into the Great Lakes region come showtime Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 NWS IWX's current thinking is everything will die before making it to our area. Huh? http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=IWX&issuedby=IWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000 FXUS63 KIWX 212348 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 539 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 PRIMARY FOCUS ON POTNL SEVERE WITH EVEN EXTREME DAMAGING WIND POTNL WITH WELL DEVELOPED QLCS PUSHING THROUGH CWA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. IN NEAR TERM HAVE SQUELCHED POPS OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM FOCUS ALONG SLOWLY NEWD RETREATING WARM FNTL BNDRY INVOF I70 SHOWING DEFICIENCY IN UPWIND SUSTAINENCE. WITH REFOCUS OF LOW LEVEL JET FARTHER WWD WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...INCREASING BLCIN AND WNW STEERING FLOW ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHC FOR CONVECTION ACRS CWA OVERNIGHT...ESPCLY GIVEN TOTALITY OF SWD COMPOSITE OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. ATTENTION TURNS TO POTNL FOR XTRM DESTABILIZATION ACRS SWRN GRTLKS ON ORDER OF 4500-5500 J/KG BY LATE AFTN IN AXIS SERN WI TO SRN IA/NWRN MO AND LESSER SECONDARY AXIS ACRS NERN IL MOVG THROUGH NWRN CWA...WHERE ISOLD SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF PRIMARY AXIS MAY FORM AMID 50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LARGE SWEEPING HELICAL HODOS...AS HIGHLY RAMPED WESTERLIES ON ORDER OF 70-85KTS INTO WESTERN LWR MI. STRONG UPDRAFT ROTATION/0-1KM HELICITY COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED SHOULD COOLER LAKE ENVIRONMENT SLOW NWD PUSH OF SFC WARM FNTL BNDRY/LAKE ENHANCED TRIPLE POINT. IN 00 UTC TO 06 UTC TIMEFRAME PRIMARY WELL DEVELOPED QLCS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH CWA. STRONG WIND PROFILES/STORM MOTION WITH PREFERRED DEEP LYR SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING FOSTERING GOOD COLD POOL BALANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Huh? http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=IWX&issuedby=IWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000 FXUS63 KIWX 212348 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 539 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 PRIMARY FOCUS ON POTNL SEVERE WITH EVEN EXTREME DAMAGING WIND POTNL WITH WELL DEVELOPED QLCS PUSHING THROUGH CWA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. IN NEAR TERM HAVE SQUELCHED POPS OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM FOCUS ALONG SLOWLY NEWD RETREATING WARM FNTL BNDRY INVOF I70 SHOWING DEFICIENCY IN UPWIND SUSTAINENCE. WITH REFOCUS OF LOW LEVEL JET FARTHER WWD WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...INCREASING BLCIN AND WNW STEERING FLOW ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHC FOR CONVECTION ACRS CWA OVERNIGHT...ESPCLY GIVEN TOTALITY OF SWD COMPOSITE OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. ATTENTION TURNS TO POTNL FOR XTRM DESTABILIZATION ACRS SWRN GRTLKS ON ORDER OF 4500-5500 J/KG BY LATE AFTN IN AXIS SERN WI TO SRN IA/NWRN MO AND LESSER SECONDARY AXIS ACRS NERN IL MOVG THROUGH NWRN CWA...WHERE ISOLD SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF PRIMARY AXIS MAY FORM AMID 50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LARGE SWEEPING HELICAL HODOS...AS HIGHLY RAMPED WESTERLIES ON ORDER OF 70-85KTS INTO WESTERN LWR MI. STRONG UPDRAFT ROTATION/0-1KM HELICITY COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED SHOULD COOLER LAKE ENVIRONMENT SLOW NWD PUSH OF SFC WARM FNTL BNDRY/LAKE ENHANCED TRIPLE POINT. IN 00 UTC TO 06 UTC TIMEFRAME PRIMARY WELL DEVELOPED QLCS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH CWA. STRONG WIND PROFILES/STORM MOTION WITH PREFERRED DEEP LYR SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING FOSTERING GOOD COLD POOL BALANCE. I meant the MCS'es out in the Plains, per there grids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I meant the MCS'es out in the Plains. For our area, that doesn't have potential to be the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 RGEM looked 4k ish...with lower res guidance i looked over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 RGEM looked 4k ish...with lower res guidance i looked over IT's been consistently showing a "different" solution here, already building 1500 to 2000 J/KG of CAPE by 15z tomorrow with mostly clear skies through 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 IT's been consistently showing a "different" solution here, already building 1500 to 2000 J/KG of CAPE by 15z tomorrow with mostly clear skies through 18z.Admittedly i was looking imby at a couple large discretes...Clear skies through 18z for you would be change compared to the last month for you guys...and on such a potentially explosive day to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Admittedly i was looking imby at a couple large discretes... Clear skies through 18z for you would be change compared to the last month for you guys...and on such a potentially explosive day to boot Yep. And having those CAPE values so early in the day would certainly help with any potential initiation along the warm front (assuming no issues from the Plains MCS). The other models don't advect those values in until after 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 4K NAM is questionable as well with its moisture forecast... across WI and IL it has DP's from the lower 50's across NC/C WI to mid 60's south of there at 12Z. Then at 15Z it shoots DP's to the upper 60's lower 70's across NC/C WI all with some convection over N IL/IA at the time, a significant increase by about 8-10 degrees in 3 hours... Thats either erroneous, or some pretty intense WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 4K NAM is questionable as well with its moisture forecast... across WI and IL it has DP's from the lower 50's across NC/C WI to mid 60's south of there at 12Z. Then at 15Z it shoots DP's to the upper 60's lower 70's across NC/C WI all with some convection over N IL/IA at the time, a significant increase by about 8-10 degrees in 3 hours... Thats either erroneous, or some pretty intense WAA. Um, are you not seeing the strength of the low level winds tomorrow? Moisture surges like that are very common in these types of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kystormspotter Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Nam 4km is a joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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