nwohweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'll be heading to Lansing tomorrow in the early afternoon to wait out and see where the storms go but it looks like a great spot to camp Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 4KM NAM is pretty dang scary... Shows numerous discrete supercells developing over WI/IL and even IA over he afternoon and evening. And possibly even MO! Have some doubts about that far south due to the cap though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 String of monster pearls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 This version of the NAM has a strange lack of coverage in much of N IL during the late afternoon/early evening. Not really sure why...can't blame it on lack of instability as MLCAPE of 4000+ is being progged. 4k nam has discrete by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 This version of the NAM has a strange lack of coverage in much of N IL during the late afternoon/early evening. Not really sure why...can't blame it on lack of instability as MLCAPE of 4000+ is being progged. On the flip side, the OP NAM develops supercells along the warn front in MI, but the 4km NAM doesn't show much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonofRO Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I really hope I am not getting my hopes up here in Michigan. I have been getting tired of all the times they have had us in a risk for severe weather only for it to bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 KLOT floater FTW 4k is nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 KLOT floater FTW 4k is nasty You're welcome I was the one who switched it over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 You're welcome I was the one who switched it over Thank you brother...in the field tomorrow or you going local super hunting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The 4km NAM goes bonkers with the surface low...down to 989 mb at 00z Tue. Not surprisingly, it has jacked low level wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Thank you brother...in the field tomorrow or you going local super hunting? As of now I'm probably chasing but not stepping foot out of IL. Still don't know what time and where etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yikes He's probably not wrong, no? I'd imagine the convective mode will be linear by the time it gets to Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Pretty remarkable image here. If I didn't know the date and had to guess, late June would not be one of my top guesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 4km NAM saves one for LAF, late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 So what do we say... moderate upgrade at the midnight (Central time) update or in the morning (or never)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 4km NAM saves one for LAF, late in the game. Great. Another 2 a.m. wake-up call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 He's probably not wrong, no? I'd imagine the convective mode will be linear by the time it gets to Detroit. Id imagine primary threat would be linear, however it's dangerous to assume there wont be spin ups in the line, or even embedded supercells or book-end vorticies. Not to mention possible discrete action earlier in the day if some of the models are correct with action on the warm front. Its just kind of dangerous to state the tornado threat is low when the numbers for sig tor/ehi/amount of shear and instability even late into the night is progged over SE MI. For the record, this is the Metro area btw. Pretty large area to be so confident that little/no tornado action and no strong tornado threat is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Id imagine primary threat would be linear, however it's dangerous to assume there wont be spin ups in the line, or even embedded supercells or book-end vorticies. Not to mention possible discrete action earlier in the day if some of the models are correct with action on the warm front. Its just kind of dangerous to state the tornado threat is low when the numbers for sig tor/ehi/amount of shear and instability even late into the night is progged over SE MI. For the record, this is the Metro area btw. Pretty large area to be so confident that little/no tornado action and no strong tornado threat is likely. profile26.jpg Agreed... he shouldn't shake it off like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 So what do we say... moderate upgrade at the midnight (Central time) update or in the morning (or never)? I'd venture to say a fairly large moderate risk with the 06Z outlook with the possibility of a smaller high risk issued later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 So what do we say... moderate upgrade at the midnight (Central time) update or in the morning (or never)? If I had to guess, I'd say moderate upgrade for N. IL / S. WI and N. IN for the 06z update (EDIT: and possibly far SW Michigan). Everyone else remains mostly unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonofRO Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 If I had to guess, I'd say moderate upgrade for N. IL / S. WI and N. IN for the 06z update. Everyone else remains mostly unchanged. You wouldn't upgrade Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 You wouldn't upgrade Michigan? They might but I'd say they will most likely upgrade in the morning update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 You wouldn't upgrade Michigan?I'd definitely do so, even if its just for severe wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonofRO Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I would love to be in a moderate risk but I have gotten my hopes up a lot this year and have gotten burned. I hope tomorrow isn't a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 You wouldn't upgrade Michigan? They might but I'd say they will most likely upgrade in the morning update ^^^What he said, depending on the evolution of tonight's convection. Assuming an organized MCS does move through in the morning or midday tomorrow, S. WI / N. IL and possibly NW IN will have greater potential of recovering from it than areas further to the NE. Though obviously, if the MCS weakens and remains in N. Wisconsin, then it may be a different story altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 ^^^What he said, depending on the evolution of tonight's convection. Assuming an organized MCS does move through in the morning or midday tomorrow, S. WI / N. IL and possibly NW IN have greater potential of recovering from it than areas further to the NE. Though obviously, if the MCS weakens and remains in N. Wisconsin, then it may be a different story altogether. Yup, exactly what I was thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looking at 00Z Observed soundings from KDVN, KGRB, and KAPX seems like a significant amount of moistening will need to occur for us to get anywhere close to the environment advertised for tomorrow. Sounding at KDVN at 00Z depicted a pretty impressive dewpoint of 68, however upon further examination there is a very shallow layer of boundary layer moisture extending only to about 950mb. Soundings to the South/southwest across NE KS/ SW MO at KTOP and KSGF depict a very moist boundary layer with SFC dp's 70-75F, i'm assuming this will likely advect NE into the main area overnight and in the morning due to strong WAA... However further north at KGRB there was a SFC DP of 58, but with a much deeper layer of moisture extending to about 800mb or so, and a very similar sounding at least as far as moisture goes at KAPX with a DP of 58 and a moist layer to about 800mb... Anyways have some doubt about the northward extent of greater moisture into areas like GRB/APX due to the possibility of quite a large MCS moving through and south of the area, likely leaving behind residual cloud cover, and scouring out moisture out of at least N/C WI and MI, which would basically wipe away the entire northern half of the threat area. Thoughts? For those, like my self who have been looking at the NAM, you'll see that it initialized with a SFC DP at ~65 at GRB on the 00Z run, and has forecasted 65-70 SFC DP's at both GRB and APX as well as a very deep moist layer... Any thoughts? and please correct me if i'm wrong since I very well could/ will be. EDIT: Just to clarify I have no doubt there will be abundant moisture in the southern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Welp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looking at 00Z Observed soundings from KDVN, KGRB, and KAPX seems like a significant amount of moistening will need to occur for us to get anywhere close to the environment advertised for tomorrow. Sounding at KDVN at 00Z depicted a pretty impressive dewpoint of 68, however upon further examination there is a very shallow layer of boundary layer moisture extending only to about 950mb. Soundings to the South/southwest across NE KS/ SW MO at KTOP and KSGF depict a very moist boundary layer with SFC dp's 70-75F, i'm assuming this will likely advect NE into the main area overnight and in the morning due to strong WAA... However further north at KGRB there was a SFC DP of 58, but with a much deeper layer of moisture extending to about 800mb or so, and a very similar sounding at least as far as moisture goes at KAPX with a DP of 58 and a moist layer to about 800mb... Anyways have some doubt about the northward extent of greater moisture into areas like GRB/APX due to the possibility of quite a large MCS moving through and south of the area, likely leaving behind residual cloud cover, and scouring out moisture out of at least N/C WI and MI, which would basically wipe away the entire northern half of the threat area. Thoughts? For those, like my self who have been looking at the NAM, you'll see that it initialized with a SFC DP at ~65 at GRB on the 00Z run, and has forecasted 65-70 SFC DP's at both GRB and APX as well as a very deep moist layer... Any thoughts? and please correct me if i'm wrong since I very well could/ will be. I can't say I disagree with your observation. It's a valid concern. At first glance from a overall synoptic standpoint, with the strength of the wind field from the SW and a rapidly deepening low pressure to the NW, moisture/instability advection wouldn't appear to be much of a problem. But yeah, an organized MCS propagating over or south of those regions (especially during peak heating) would certainly throw a wrench into things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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