tornadojay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Something yummy is coming finally... I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Please!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Please!! Nice to see some weather porn inside 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Nice to see some weather porn inside 7 days If the euro verified, I'd be so mad..... Especially in this kind of pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If the euro verified, I'd be so mad..... Especially in this kind of pattern Wait... I'm confused. The Euro looks quite good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Wait... I'm confused. The Euro looks quite good. My bad your totally right, I clicked on 6 hr rates....not total snowfall... My bad, yea euro is 12-18 for us too lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not sure what I'm missing, but the Euro looks good to me. I'd look more at the track than QPF maps at this point in the game. The mid level lows seem to take a nice track to give a pretty substantial snowfall region wide. Still plenty of time to go. By the way, I almost made it to February without re-upping my WxBell subscription, but this storm suckered me back in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 My bad your totally right, I clicked on 6 hr rates....not total snowfall... My bad, yea euro is 12-18 for us too lmao I thought you were already getting worked up over not being in the jackpot zone and only getting a foot or two. Thank goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 My bad your totally right, I clicked on 6 hr rates....not total snowfall... My bad, yea euro is 12-18 for us too lmaoAnd you want to be my Euro source.,,LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Wait... I'm confused. The Euro looks quite good. In fact, if that verified, I'd be (easily) back on pace with last year's running snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And you want to be my Euro source.,,LOL HAHAHAH, here's so many useless options on WXbell and my fingers are too fat for those tiny tabs lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And you want to be my Euro source.,,LOL I was going to say something earlier but I had faith you guys would figure it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 HAHAHAH, here's so many useless options on WXbell and my fingers are too fat for those tiny tabs lmaoIt's all good. My focus has been on football this weekend anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's all good. My focus has been on football this weekend anyway Lol @ Seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Lol @ SeattleI was hoping for at least a close game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 They almost pulled it off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Mt Holly NWS is indicating to to be ready later in the week. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...**SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX TO AFFECT OUR AREA THIS WEEK**500MB: WHILE A -2SD TROUGH DEPARTS EASTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND MONDAYNIGHT WE AWAIT THE PROBABLE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERNSTREAM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM IN THE SE USA FRIDAY. EASTERNPACIFIC SHORT WAVES NOT ONLY CUT EASTWARD THROUGH DIXIE BUT ALSOHEAVE A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAMRESPONSE IS A STRONGLY -NAO + PNA PATTERN.TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALTUESDAY WITH -18C AIR AT 850 MB TO START THE DAY. THIS COULD BE SOMEOF THE COLDEST AIR TO DATE, OF THIS SO FAR, WARM WINTER. TEMPERATURESSHOULD AVERAGE NORMAL OR JUST A BIT BELOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY AND THOSE WITHTRAVEL-OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE DELMARVA, EASTERN PA AND NJ SHOULDTHINK ABOUT CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR ADVERSE WINTER WX. THIS INCLUDESTHE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING A POSSIBILITYOF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL, NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND GUSTS 25 TO 40MPH...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST.DETERMINISTIC DETAILS ARE IN THE FORECAST, BUT TIMING HEAVIESTPCPN, AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AND THE AMOUNTS, AS WELL AS THE RAINSNOW LINE STILL REMAIN WITH A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES. THISMESSAGE ONLY SERVES NOTICE THAT POTENT EVENT LOOMS AND THOUGHTSHOULD BE GIVEN AS TO MITIGATING ACTIONS SHOULD OUR FORECASTREMAIN SIMILARLY ADVERSE WHEN ISSUED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.WE DO NOT POST SNOW ACCUMULATION GRAPHICS AND SNOW PROBABILITIESON OUR WINTER WEATHER PAGE BEYOND 72 HOURS. HOWEVER, WPC HAD A 50TO 70 PCT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF MELTED WATEREQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Model trends today continue the pattern of the last 5 years with sharp snow cutoff and us N&W crew getting the screw job. Seems not to matter Nina/Nino for us. The days of rain for the coast and heavy amounts N&W seem to have changed and more than just luck, an overall climatic change seems to be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Model trends today continue the pattern of the last 5 years with sharp snow cutoff and us N&W crew getting the screw job. Seems not to matter Nina/Nino for us. The days of rain for the coast and heavy amounts N&W seem to have changed and more than just luck, an overall climatic change seems to be in play. What model trended unfavorably for us besides the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Model trends today continue the pattern of the last 5 years with sharp snow cutoff and us N&W crew getting the screw job. Seems not to matter Nina/Nino for us. The days of rain for the coast and heavy amounts N&W seem to have changed and more than just luck, an overall climatic change seems to be in play.Yeah, not gonna lie, getting fringed is a concern at this point for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What model trended unfavorably for us besides the GFS? Euro and its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Euro was a solid whiff 3 runs ago. It didnt trend anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yeah, not gonna lie, getting fringed is a concern at this point for me. Only one model shows this tho, and it's actually trended north, compared to its previous OTS solution, Euro, GGEM, JMA and most ENS members are big hits unless your getting up to Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro and its ensembles. Unfavorable? The euro drops 12-18 for most here.. What are you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If the 12z Euro was a bad trend, hopefully the next run is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Euro was a solid whiff 3 runs ago. It didnt trend anywhere.I just have nightmares of last years blizzard when you mention the Euro LOL. It'll be an interesting week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think a couple of unfortunate fringe jobs have really clouded some of your memories of the last several years. I don't think it's been nearly as bad as others. I wouldn't even count last year as a fringe job because all that snow was almost wholly focused on Eastern Mass and vicinity. Getting back to this system, I think I'd be more concerned with a miss for NYC and points north/east then I would be for a fringe job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You are probably right and hope my concerns are unfounded. Need the coast and city to be concerned about precip type during at least part of storm, if they are all snow down to the central NJ coast then I worry. Lots of model runs to go, just glad something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You are probably right and hope my concerns are unfounded. Need the coast and city to be concerned about precip type during at least part of storm, if they are all snow down to the central NJ coast then I worry. Lots of model runs to go, just glad something to track. The good news is that the mid-level envelope is pretty broad as modeled (700mb from the 18z GFS shown), not super wound-up like with many blockbusters storms of recent years. There's not really a pressing high to erode the northern edge of the precip, either. I'm totally in agreement that the surface low track could stand to be improved, but at the same time I think we'll have a little bit of wiggle room to cash in even if it snows to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 00z GFS could make a grown man cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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