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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2015/16


snywx

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Not sure what I'm missing, but the Euro looks good to me. I'd look more at the track than QPF maps at this point in the game. The mid level lows seem to take a nice track to give a pretty substantial snowfall region wide. Still plenty of time to go.

 

By the way, I almost made it to February without re-upping my WxBell subscription, but this storm suckered me back in!

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Mt Holly NWS is indicating to to be ready later in the week.

 

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX TO AFFECT OUR AREA THIS WEEK**

500MB: WHILE A -2SD TROUGH DEPARTS EASTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT WE AWAIT THE PROBABLE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN
STREAM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM IN THE SE USA FRIDAY. EASTERN
PACIFIC SHORT WAVES NOT ONLY CUT EASTWARD THROUGH DIXIE BUT ALSO
HEAVE A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM
RESPONSE IS A STRONGLY -NAO + PNA PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY WITH -18C AIR AT 850 MB TO START THE DAY. THIS COULD BE SOME
OF THE COLDEST AIR TO DATE, OF THIS SO FAR, WARM WINTER. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NORMAL OR JUST A BIT BELOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY AND THOSE WITH
TRAVEL-OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE DELMARVA, EASTERN PA AND NJ SHOULD
THINK ABOUT CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR ADVERSE WINTER WX. THIS INCLUDES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING A POSSIBILITY
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL, NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND GUSTS 25 TO 40
MPH...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST.

DETERMINISTIC DETAILS ARE IN THE FORECAST, BUT TIMING HEAVIEST
PCPN, AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AND THE AMOUNTS, AS WELL AS THE RAIN
SNOW LINE STILL REMAIN WITH A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES. THIS
MESSAGE ONLY SERVES NOTICE THAT POTENT EVENT LOOMS AND THOUGHT
SHOULD BE GIVEN AS TO MITIGATING ACTIONS SHOULD OUR FORECAST
REMAIN SIMILARLY ADVERSE WHEN ISSUED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

WE DO NOT POST SNOW ACCUMULATION GRAPHICS AND SNOW PROBABILITIES
ON OUR WINTER WEATHER PAGE BEYOND 72 HOURS. HOWEVER, WPC HAD A 50
TO 70 PCT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF MELTED WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

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Model trends today continue the pattern of the last 5 years with sharp snow cutoff and us N&W crew getting the screw job. Seems not to matter Nina/Nino for us. The days of rain for the coast and heavy amounts N&W seem to have changed and more than just luck, an overall climatic change seems to be in play.

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Model trends today continue the pattern of the last 5 years with sharp snow cutoff and us N&W crew getting the screw job. Seems not to matter Nina/Nino for us. The days of rain for the coast and heavy amounts N&W seem to have changed and more than just luck, an overall climatic change seems to be in play.

What model trended unfavorably for us besides the GFS?

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Model trends today continue the pattern of the last 5 years with sharp snow cutoff and us N&W crew getting the screw job. Seems not to matter Nina/Nino for us. The days of rain for the coast and heavy amounts N&W seem to have changed and more than just luck, an overall climatic change seems to be in play.

Yeah, not gonna lie, getting fringed is a concern at this point for me.
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I think a couple of unfortunate fringe jobs have really clouded some of your memories of the last several years. I don't think it's been nearly as bad as others. I wouldn't even count last year as a fringe job because all that snow was almost wholly focused on Eastern Mass and vicinity.

 

Getting back to this system, I think I'd be more concerned with a miss for NYC and points north/east then I would be for a fringe job. 

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You are probably right and hope my concerns are unfounded. Need the coast and city to be concerned about precip type during at least part of storm, if they are all snow down to the central NJ coast then I worry. Lots of model runs to go, just glad something to track.

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You are probably right and hope my concerns are unfounded. Need the coast and city to be concerned about precip type during at least part of storm, if they are all snow down to the central NJ coast then I worry. Lots of model runs to go, just glad something to track.

 

The good news is that the mid-level envelope is pretty broad as modeled (700mb from the 18z GFS shown), not super wound-up like with many blockbusters storms of recent years. There's not really a pressing high to erode the northern edge of the precip, either. I'm totally in agreement that the surface low track could stand to be improved, but at the same time I think we'll have a little bit of wiggle room to cash in even if it snows to the coast.

 

Zog1KS7.png

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