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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2015/16


snywx

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Radar is impressive right now to the south.

It will be interesting to see if I flip to snow in the wee hours of the morning.

Temp has actually gone up a degree recently. sitting at 38F

Valley locations are cooler right now.

The Radar definitely looks nice. 36 here, so I guess there's a chance. Impressive storm, even if it's rain.

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Sitting at 32 degrees here to the west. Seems colder at least at surface than expected. 18z Nam wants to bring a few hrs of snow it looks here.. I'm at 1,230 feet and thinking I may have a shot at something. Certaintly the Pocono Plateau just to my west at 2k, has the best shot.

You are def in a good spot for this one. It's been awhile since elevation mattered lol. Someone is gonna wake up surprised that's for sure

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0z NAM model soundings isothermal from KSWF on north at 12z.  Probably flips to snow earlier than that.  This is all evap cooling at the currently still dry mid levels followed by dynaminc cooling on down, but I think you pull it off.  SE Catskills above 3k feet slight shot at warning criteria, but probably more like 3 - 4".

 

At least that is my guess using the NAM and 0z soundings.

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0z NAM model soundings isothermal from KSWF on north at 12z.  Probably flips to snow earlier than that.  This is all evap cooling at the currently still dry mid levels followed by dynaminc cooling on down, but I think you pull it off.  SE Catskills above 3k feet slight shot at warning criteria, but probably more like 3 - 4".

 

At least that is my guess using the NAM and 0z soundings.

 

did not check soundings. What is your gut check for area and elevation.

Run looked coldest yet

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did not check soundings. What is your gut check for area and elevation.

Run looked coldest yet

Best bets are above 2k feet (and especially above 3k feet i.e, Catskills, above 925mb level), but with that isothermal profile it could snow down to the valley floors if it comes down hard enough around dawn  Need to be well away from the coast though because the southeast and then easterly flow is going to keep a steady import of way too much warm air to have a chance of overcoming it with dynamic processes. It'll probably be about 40 or low 40s here early morning with heavy rain, but for LI it won't even be remotely close.  

 

Butler may be a little too far SE for this one.  LI is a lot too far SE.

 

EDIT:  Oops, not sure why I had Butler on the brain.  Highland Lakes at your elevation should see some snow mix and maybe a wet accumulation.  Depends on how hard it comes down.  Based on the NAM I'd still prefer to be further north.

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Best bets are above 2k feet (and especially above 3k feet i.e, Catskills, above 925mb level), but with that isothermal profile it could snow down to the valley floors if it comes down hard enough around dawn  Need to be well away from the coast though because the southeast and then easterly flow is going to keep a steady import of way too much warm air to have a chance of overcoming it with dynamic processes. It'll probably be about 40 or low 40s here early morning with heavy rain, but for LI it won't even be remotely close.  

 

Butler may be a little too far SE for this one.  LI is a lot too far SE.

 

you did not answer my question. lol. no worries.

I run 6-7 degree cooler than butler typically.

20 miles away.

this storm will be interesting....

0z nam blew me away. 

I think I have a chance :pimp:

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you did not answer my question. lol. no worries.

I run 6-7 degree cooler than butler typically.

20 miles away.

this storm will be interesting....

0z nam blew me away. 

I think I have a chance :pimp:

 

 

lol ok do u live in canada or 5000 ft up. im 36 so u should be 29-30 according to your temp difference

. u are not even 6-7 degrees colder than nyc average wise

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lol ok do u live in canada or 5000 ft up. im 36 so u should be 29-30 according to your temp difference

. u are not even 6-7 degrees colder than nyc average wise

 

you are knit picking. LOL.

Can't use tonight as an example.

If you want to trade weather data, let's do it.

I see it all the time.

Don't toss rain on my 0z run.

 

Matt

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lol ok do u live in canada or 5000 ft up. im 36 so u should be 29-30 according to your temp difference

. u are not even 6-7 degrees colder than nyc average wise

 

1000 feet higher would be worth about 3 degrees in a saturated environment.  Might be able to subtract another degree or two for distance from the coast in this instance but not always,

 

Temperature here is 44 and going nowhere or even slightly rising.

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you are knit picking. LOL.

Can't use tonight as an example.

If you want to trade weather data, let's do it.

I see it all the time.

Don't toss rain on my 0z run.

Matt

Maybe 3 -4 under ideal situations

Soundings for Sussex . (Yes lower than u but still liquid )12z tomorrow on nam

29pcllh.jpg

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1000 feet higher would be worth about 3 degrees in a saturated environment. Might be able to subtract another degree or two for distance from the coast in this instance but not always,

Temperature here is 44 and going nowhere or even slightly rising.

And elevation of my town ranges from 350-750 and I'm about 25-30 miles north west from NYC go. Yes he averages more snow than me with 1400 ft elevator but the 6-7 degrees colder on avg is laughable lol

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Dude. let's exchange data.

Plenty of time I am 6-7 degrees cooler.

I accept the challenge.

Matt

Do u have a weather station on line that's calibrated ? Mine is so u can check . Never said u were no ever 6-7 degrees colder but on average no way . And my sensor is in full sun more than the required anount of hrs for nws standard . Have nick set u up one . He will put it were its needed to be set up

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Headed up to Marist College tomorrow morning with my older son for a prospect baseball camp he was invited to. Have to be there by 8:30am so will be hitting the road bright and early tomorrow from Monmouth County, NJ to get up there in time. Was originally thinking we would get lucky with the warmer temps but not so much anymore? Your thoughts up that way? Also, any good places to eat around that area afterwards? Thanks guys!

I'm not super familiar with that neck of the woods but I know that the Hyde Park Brewery isn't too far north of there. It's a family restaurant along with the brewery. I only ate there once but I enjoyed it and plan to go back again. Oh, and I enjoyed the beer too ;)
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Do u have a weather station on line that's calibrated ? Mine is so u can check . Never said u were no ever 6-7 degrees colder but on average no way . And my sensor is in full sun more than the required anount of hrs for nws standard . Have nick set u up one . He will put it were its needed to be set up

 

Yea. Nick and I have been exchanging text on the regular.

He invited himself to my house lol.

Nick knows where I live. Still not comfortable having him over yet. LOL

In due time

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Yea. Nick and I have been exchanging text on the regular.

He invited himself to my house lol.

Nick knows where I live. Still not comfortable having him over yet. LOL

In due time

hes harmless and a good guy. hes a friend of mine. he use to run a great site called Sussex county weather. had numerous stations linked up to each other. just couldn't keep up with the expenses to upkeep

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And elevation of my town ranges from 350-750 and I'm about 25-30 miles north west from NYC go. Yes he averages more snow than me with 1400 ft elevator but the 6-7 degrees colder on avg is laughable lol

Yeah that's about the range of elevation. I'd say on a good radiational night we could be 10° colder than NYC, but as for our differences from him, maybe 3-4 degrees is more like it. Exceptions are of course understood.

Highland lakes is only about 17 minutes from here, I used to go to a range up there and that's how long it took.

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