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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2015/16


snywx

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Good day all,

 

WWA for the interior for tonight. Mentions higher terrain will be impacted.

 

local NWS

 

**WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXTREME NORTH PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA**

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/8 MOS GUIDANCE WITH SREF POPS BLENDED IN AS WELL.
TEMPS USED THE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS 3 HOURLIES AS THE GUIDE.

MULTIPLE MODELS BRING A SMIDGE OF QPF THE REGION NW OF I-95 TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS COULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT A LITTLE SNOW AT THE START IN
A FEW SPOTS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN ABOUT 2 HOURS OF 06Z AND MOSTLY
NORTHERN MOST MONROE COUNTY-POSSIBLY HIGH PT-WANTAGE VERNON NJ.
OTRW, SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN A MODEST INSTABILITY BURST OF
LIFT/RH/WAA ADVECTION.

WEB SNOW AND GRAPHICS SHOULD NOW BE POSTED.

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF ICING JUST S OF I-80 AND WE MAY YET HAVE
TO ADD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY HIGH TERRAIN
ADVY AREA BUT THAT PROBABLY WOULDNT HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 3 PM TODAY,
IF THEN.

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They cut Passaic County in half and have the western side under an advisory. Nothing here in Morris County though, despite being right across the border from Passaic. I think Morris goes so far south they have trouble with advisories for the whole county, because there are some southern areas that are much lower than up here. If that's the case they could always cut the county in half North to South like they do for Passaic except that's West and East.

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They cut Passaic County in half and have the western side under an advisory. Nothing here in Morris County though, despite being right across the border from Passaic. I think Morris goes so far south they have trouble with advisories for the whole county, because there are some southern areas that are much lower than up here. If that's the case they could always cut the county in half North to South like they do for Passaic except that's West and East.

I think you need to be in Hewitt before anything significant.

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I think you need to be in Hewitt before anything significant.

Yeah, probably. I don't expect to see much of anything tonight. Though I still think they should consider splitting the county in the future if it's necessary, because there's a lot of elevation and terrain changes for Morris.

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Something to watch short term

Mt Holly NWS mentions the following.

 

On the horizon..possible first trace or minor accumulation for the area.

To make up for this poor winter, I need at a minimum a 2 to 3 ft'r in February or March.

 

 

AS TEMPERATURES DROP ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND ONTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE SYSTEM APPEARS ROBUST ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE
SEASON MAY OCCUR AT PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTIC CITY AND MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

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